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OT: World Politics


View: https://bsky.app/profile/prune602.bsky.social/post/3lkejodrnu22d

Fantastic thread

The Russian budget projected a 32B deficit in 2025 with 38B in liquid (Yuan and gold) reserves left to pay for it. They had what was basically a small doomsday fund of rubles on deposit with Russian banks that they've started to use and have already drawn down by half in 2 months. The core problem they're having is that in their....already apocalyptic....budget, they projected an average oil price of 69-70 USD, but their Urals product has been trading at 54 a barrel, creating a massive revenue shortage.

It also turns out that their state owned banks were basically the only ones buying their bonds so now of Sberbank's total holdings, russian bonds account for 70%. VTB is in similar shape. So it's like a russian nesting doll of circular financial bullshit. Sberbank and VTB are two of the biggest non liquid holdings listed as part of the 135B national welfare fund, but over half of their assets are russian bonds. So Russia is going cash broke by the end of this year, when that happens they will default on bond interest payments, which vaporizes the two state owned banks, which then vaporizes the national welfare fund, which essentially bankrupts the Russian government.

All of this might be made a lot a lot worse because their boy is about to set off an international recession with his tariff bullshit, which will likely cause the price of oil to fall further, potentially beyond the ability (and willingness) of OPEC to reign it in.

The Ukies can win this on attrition as long as Europe is willing to pay the bills.
 
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China will float them. They can’t have bedlam on the northern border. Except, maybe Dotard won’t like that. Putin et al don’t care about long term debt, it’ll be someone else’s problem. But Ukraine is immediate and existential for this regime.
 
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lecoqsportif said:
China will float them. They can’t have bedlam on the northern border. Except, maybe Dotard won’t like that. Putin et al don’t care about long term debt, it’ll be someone else’s problem. But Ukraine is immediate and existential for this regime.
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China has its own fiscal problems. I could see China step in and backstop the regime to keep the country from going bankrupt, but I can't see them doing it at current Russian spending levels. China will push them to end the war if they want Chinese financial help.
 
MindzEye said:

View: https://bsky.app/profile/prune602.bsky.social/post/3lkejodrnu22d

Fantastic thread

The Russian budget projected a 32B deficit in 2025 with 38B in liquid (Yuan and gold) reserves left to pay for it. They had what was basically a small doomsday fund of rubles on deposit with Russian banks that they've started to use and have already drawn down by half in 2 months. The core problem they're having is that in their....already apocalyptic....budget, they projected an average oil price of 69-70 USD, but their Urals product has been trading at 54 a barrel, creating a massive revenue shortage.

It also turns out that their state owned banks were basically the only ones buying their bonds so now of Sberbank's total holdings, russian bonds account for 70%. VTB is in similar shape. So it's like a russian nesting doll of circular financial bullshit. Sberbank and VTB are two of the biggest non liquid holdings listed as part of the 135B national welfare fund, but over half of their assets are russian bonds. So Russia is going cash broke by the end of this year, when that happens they will default on bond interest payments, which vaporizes the two state owned banks, which then vaporizes the national welfare fund, which essentially bankrupts the Russian government.

All of this might be made a lot a lot worse because their boy is about to set off an international recession with his tariff bullshit, which will likely cause the price of oil to fall further, potentially beyond the ability (and willingness) of OPEC to reign it in.

The Ukies can win this on attrition as long as Europe is willing to pay the bills.
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Great read. One question: with Putin rejecting US' favourable proposals, what could his end game be. If doomsday is indeed coming, should he not have more urgency?
 
Hes doing what he always does, doubles down on a bad hand.

The counterpoint to the good news is that he can start squeezing the Russian people more. I think we'll see mobilization and higher taxes this year to try to throw more meat at the problem to achieve the more limited goals he's adapted to over the last year and kick the financial collapse another 6-12 months down the road with property seizures and higher taxation. He has badly wanted to avoid exposing the general population to the pain of this war so far and I don't think he can anymore. history teaches us that shit looks really normal right up until regime collapse happens and then we look back with hindsight and it seemed inevitable.
 
WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou said:
Because Putin's ace in the hole is Comrade Krasnov and kompromat
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Honestly, as much as this gets repeated, I think it’s a total non-factor when it comes to Trump’s admiration for and fealty to Putin.

Like, think about it—whatever theoretical blackmail Putin has in his pockets—whether it was detailed, unassailable proof of Trump being a paid Russian asset for 35 years, or the infamous pee tape, if Putin ever released it, Trump would call it “fake news”, his supporters would all believe him, Republicans wouldn’t do anything about it and business would go on as usual.

I think it all just comes back to Trump deeply idolizing the likes of Putin or Kim for being the totalitarian, absolutist dictator-monarchs he dreams of being himself.
 
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LeafGm said:
Honestly, as much as this gets repeated, I think it’s a total non-factor when it comes to Trump’s admiration for and fealty to Putin.

Like, think about it—whatever theoretical blackmail Putin has in his pockets—whether it was detailed, unassailable proof of Trump being a paid Russian asset for 35 years, or the infamous pee tape, if Putin ever released it, Trump would call it “fake news”, his supporters would all believe him, Republicans wouldn’t do anything about it and business would go on as usual.

I think it all just comes back to Trump deeply idolizing the likes of Putin or Kim for being the totalitarian, absolutist dictator-monarchs he dream of being himself.
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Vlad Vexler recently had what I consider to be an excellent take on Trump's state of mind in general.


View: https://youtu.be/cmTeg0B9tH8?si=JxlHqTtGWxijhSrM
 
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