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Playoff GDT | Game #2 | at Sabres | Friday, 5/8/26 7:00 PM EST

Krustchev said:
There is obviously data to support the notion that bigger bodies have a better chance of playing 200 NHL games than smaller ones, all things being equal, so it's not irrational for NHL teams to not draft a Benson type in the top 5. The data supports it and the draft is a crapshoot so teams will err on the side of probabilities. Even the great HuGo drafted Lane at 62OA, not with our picks at 1, 19 or 33.
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Part of drafting is trying to guess where players rank on opposing draft boards, so you can exploit the difference between where you value a player and the consensus value

Not sure the data supports big guys are more likely to hit, but the data definitely shows there is a size bias, so teams adjust their boards accordingly
 
CH1 said:
Part of drafting is trying to guess where players rank on opposing draft boards, so you can exploit the difference between where you value a player and the consensus value

Not sure the data supports big guys are more likely to hit, but the data definitely shows there is a size bias, so teams adjust their boards accordingly
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Teams dont need a good 18 year old , they want a polished solid 22 year old

Some small players who compete are fine if surrounded by bigger willing skilled guys
 
CH1 said:
Part of drafting is trying to guess where players rank on opposing draft boards, so you can exploit the difference between where you value a player and the consensus value

Not sure the data supports big guys are more likely to hit, but the data definitely shows there is a size bias, so teams adjust their boards accordingly
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+1

Hughes was a fan and would have drafted him higher but the staff was quite confident that he would still be available later. Personally I don’t like this type of gamble but I understand it.

Also not sure about the data on size. I feel like there is more cases of players being drafted early because of their size that fails than the smaller players, mostly because the smaller players have to be vastly superior to the bigger ones to even be considered. Plus their hockey IQ, arguably the most important skill, is generally much higher because they were forced to develop it,
 
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GrandWazoo said:
+1

Hughes was a fan and would have drafted him higher but the staff was quite confident that he would still be available later. Personally I don’t like this type of gamble but I understand it.

Also not sure about the data on size. I feel like there is more cases of players being drafted early because of their size that fails than the smaller players, mostly because the smaller players have to be vastly superior to the bigger ones to even be considered. Plus their hockey IQ, arguably the most important skill, is generally much higher because they were forced to develop it,
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I think too many smaller players get drafted ahead of bigger with some skill

Mesar , Rosen types are mainly busts but it makes no sense for Knies or Cuylle types to go in the later second round
 
GEEMAN said:
I think too many smaller players get drafted ahead of bigger with some skill

Mesar , Rosen types are mainly busts but it makes no sense for Knies or Cuylle types to go in the later second round
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Main difference is floor, big guys can salvage a career as support players, small guys have to hit.
 
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GrandWazoo said:
Main difference is floor, big guys can salvage a career as support players, small guys have to hit.
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True but as a GM who has a better chance of a meaningful career Knies or Mesar

Mesar is top 6 or bust , his ceiling was never high and his floor is an AHLer or Davos career.

You take a smaller player somewhere in round 1 when their skill level or 1 trait is elite like Caufield

Later rounds sure but not in round 1 .
 
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GEEMAN said:
True but as a GM who has a better chance of a meaningful career Knies or Mesar

Mesar is top 6 or bust , his ceiling was never high and his floor is an AHLer or Davos career.

You take a smaller player somewhere in round 1 when their skill level or 1 trait is elite like Caufield

Later rounds sure but not in round 1 .
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Mesar was a bad pick, had he been a second/third rounder, no issue, but I agree with you that I never quite saw the upside for a first round pick. But I'm not going to mourn one bad pick in a good draft for us when we have a drafting history littered with big sized duds. In their defense, it's not like there was a lot of studs drafted after him. Besides Hutson, Minten is probably the best of the rest. What a dumb move by the Leafs.

Knies was a 57th overall pick despite his size, I guess his upside wasn't really obvious either.
 
GrandWazoo said:
Mesar was a bad pick, had he been a second/third rounder, no issue, but I agree with you that I never quite saw the upside for a first round pick. But I'm not going to mourn one bad pick in a good draft for us when we have a drafting history littered with big sized duds. In their defense, it's not like there was a lot of studs drafted after him. Besides Hutson, Minten is probably the best of the rest. What a dumb move by the Leafs.

Knies was a 57th overall pick despite his size, I guess his upside wasn't really obvious either.
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Hutson is one of those rare tiny players who hit his ceiling by 120%

We had hopes of being a solid offensive point producer but top 5-7 in the game at 22 was not in the cards

And Hugo has this MOFO locked up at 8.8 mil for the next 8 ....
 
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