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The Andersen Thread

mbow30

mbow30

Spudmeister Supreme
So we have crossed the 75 game mark and, 2 games back, Andersen started his 60th regular season game for the first time in his career. We're at a point where we can start drawing some conclusions about him.

First, the eye test:

(1) There is no doubt about his ability to hold down a starting job. He has hit the 60 games played plateau, stayed healthy, and hasn't seen a drop off in performance late in the season. In fact, March was his best month of the season in terms of winning percentage, and second best in terms of save percentage (939 on the month; he posted a ridiculous 948 in December).

(2) He still has some kinks to work out. I'm not sure if it's mental or dealing with the physical grind at times, but he has had some bad stretches. I think we can ignore his first handful of games - new city, new team and expectations for the first time in his career, and he came out of that funk quickly. But he had a bit of a malaise in January and February, after his strong December which contributed to this team now needing to fight for a playoff berth.

Second, the 'old' stats:

(3) Freddy flat out wins. Career true winning percentage, i.e. wins/decisions:

Freddy 62.1
Crawford 58
Lundqvist 55.6
Gibson 55
Quick 54.2
Price 54.1
Reimer 46.9

His numbers are also hurt by an inordinate number of OTL/SOLs in 16-17 (14 on the season and just 12 on his career coming into the season).

There is obviously a team element to winning, but that's why Gibson is bolded and instructive - Freddy blows Gibson's true winning percentage out of the water, even with a near historic high number of OTL and SOLs. Also don't forget some solid playoff runs with Anaheim. That's a good sign.

(4) His Sv% is a solid .919 currently and should finish in the 917-921 range. Good for 11th amongst starters right now and in the same range as Crawford, Murray, Talbot and Lehner - all good goalies. Not elite, but good.

Now as for the more advanced metrics:

(5) His 613 QS% is good for thrid amongst starting goaltenders, trailing only Bobrovsky and Dubnik.

(6) His Hockey Reference goalie point share is 12.8, good for third behing Bobrovsky and Talbot.

(7) 5v5 sv % is 12th amongst goalies with 35+ GP

(8) Was hoping to post his 4v5 stats but HockeyAnalysis/Puckalytics seems to be having issues right now.'

Anybody care to fill in the blanks on 4v5 sv% and some of the danger stats? I was going to post Corsi sv% but it's a tight curve and i'm not sure has much value.

In terms of conclusions we can draw - he looks like a good, solid starter. He has already proven that he's capable of going on nice runs, including in the playoffs, and we now have a pretty good idea that is durable, can handle a starter's workload, and can perform deep in the season.

Is he a perfect goalie? No, but he looks like a real nice find for Lou, and well worth the price they paid (both the first round pick and the big contract).
 
I think the inconsistency thing is overstated - every goalie has bad stretches, even the best ones.

And I should doublecheck but I'm pretty sure his PK SV% is amongst the best (and was good in previous years too).
 
The one big worry I have when I'm feeling particularly henny penny is that he seems to have a bit of history with concussion-like symptoms.

Injuries can't be predicted, so beyond that I'm pretty happy with the idea of him being around for a while...though I feel like it's how he performs in the playoffs that matters.
 
my worry is that looking at most playoff matchups, he would arguably be the weaker goalie in most of them.
 
I had serious doubts about him back in January and February. But, boy, has he ever rebounded beautifully. More importantly, my big concern was his ability to handle the heavy workload. With his great stretch in March, those concerns have been put to rest.

The next big test is the playoffs. I'm really looking forward to seeing how he performs in the playoffs. With his playoff drive play, I have good confidence that he'll be a good backstop for our playoffs.
 
He had a stellar series last year (947% in 5 gp, albeit in a losing cause). his sv% wasn't great in the previous year (913) but might have bveen hurt by a few bad starts. he guided anh to the conference finals and had a qs% over 60%... so i think he has already demonstrated that he can perform well in the playoffs.
 
zeke said:
I think the inconsistency thing is overstated - every goalie has bad stretches, even the best ones.

And I should doublecheck but I'm pretty sure his PK SV% is amongst the best (and was good in previous years too).
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well, to be claer - the consistency thing is the difference between him being a good, solid starter, and elite (and indeed that is typically what has seprated the lundqvists, prices and others from the pack).
 
Bleedsblue&white said:
The one big worry I have when I'm feeling particularly henny penny is that he seems to have a bit of history with concussion-like symptoms.

Injuries can't be predicted, so beyond that I'm pretty happy with the idea of him being around for a while...though I feel like it's how he performs in the playoffs that matters.
Click to expand...
This is another added benefit with Andersen. We're not breaking in a goalie who's a rookie when it comes to the playoffs behind a team that's full of actual rookies. He's already been to the playoffs three times with Anaheim essentially as their starter. And if he and the Leafs make it this year, that'll mean that Andersen will have been to the playoffs in each of his four NHL seasons so far.

Here's a break-down of how he's done:

2014 playoffs (Andersen's rookie year)

xUcfc1a.jpg


So, there was some good and bad when it comes to his first shot at the playoffs. He began the playoffs as Anaheim's starter, and picked up three wins in their first round series against Dallas. But he ran pretty hot and cold. OK in game one, great in game two and in game six to force a game seven.

But he was pretty bad in games three, four & seven, and he got pulled partway through game seven and then watched from the bench as Jonas Hiller took over as Anaheim's starter for the rest of that game, and for their seven-game loss in the second round against the Kings. And in the end his overall numbers were fairly poor.

2015 playoffs

2GdMS1U.jpg


The 2015 playoffs were a definite step forward for him, and a chance to pick up a hell of a lot of playoff experience. He started out by posting elite numbers in four & five game series victories against the Jets and Flames in the first two rounds.

His numbers against the eventual Cup champion Blackhawks weren't nearly as good, but he and the Ducks did take them to seven games. And that included three OT wins, one of which went to triple-OT, as well as another tight one-goal game. And his overall numbers still ended up OK in the end.

2016 playoffs

Ye3BdLU.jpg


And then there's last year. The Ducks had obviously already decided that Gibson was their goalie of the future at that point, so they gave him the first two starts of their first round series against Nashville. Gibson shat the bed in those games, and so the baton was passed back to Andersen.

He responded by not allowing a goal for the next 91 minutes and 26 seconds of play, putting up stellar numbers and winning the next three games in a row to pull the Ducks back ahead in their series. But in the end, it wasn't enough when Anaheim only managed one goal in each of games six & seven.
 
The fact that he's been clutch under intense pressure the last few weeks is the most important indicator to me.

He doesn't burn under fire. If he's the same in the playoffs, then he's a legit #1 backstop and a massive pull by Lou.
 
One thing I've noticed about Andersen, his rough stretches follow long breaks like his pre-season injury, Christmas, the Bye Week and the All-Star Break. When he plays regularly, he plays well
 
(4) His Sv% is a solid .919 currently and should finish in the 917-921 range. Good for 11th amongst starters right now and in the same range as Crawford, Murray, Talbot and Lehner - all good goalies. Not elite, but good.
Click to expand...

We got what we paid for, in other words.

Another green checkmark on the list for Shanaloucock.
 
Yes Andersen's been great for us.

Throughout his career, Andersen has been a highly consistent goalie - more consistent than most starters actually, but this year he's been more inconsistent than average. I hope this is all part of getting to a new team, a young team, higher workload, new system ... etc. and that he will work everything out.

If there's another thing Andersen should work on in hte summer though, it's shootouts. Various analysis has shown shootouts is very much a coin flip, and good teams don't necessarily have better shootout records. Also, good shootout teams aren't consistent, they can go from top to bottom or bottom to top over a season.

ALL that said, Andersen's shootout SV% is ridiculously bad. His shootout % is .522, and among NHL starters he's 26th (only Holtby, Ward, Lehner and Lehtonen are worse)

(Interestingly, Lehner has not made a single shootout save in 4 shootout attempts. He is 0-4 with 0% SO SV%)

Andersen's 1-7 shootout record is by far the worst in terms of W-L.
 
David Alter‏Verified account
@dalter

With a .939 sv % in March, Frederik Andersen recorded the best March by a Leafs starting goaltender, ever.
 
yeah gotta say that's a dumb stat. especially surrounded by a .901 feb and a .906 apr.
 
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