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The Fucking Season Thread - Redemption Tour '22

I think they're favorites in both series. They've been far better than Tampa and Boston this season. That has not been the case in any other year.

A little more concerned with Tampa for the reasons zeke mentioned but I still think the Leafs are better. The only reason they'd be considered underdogs are their past failures in the first round, which I suppose is fair, but team vs team I see them as the easy faves.
 
Funny because the Leafs are a way better team this year, a combined 4-1 against them, and will have home ice advantage and a 10 point cushion.

#hugeunderdogs
 
uh huh.

let's see what happens when the pressure is back on again.

Leafs are a first round bye until they prove they have the fortitude to end another team's season.

last 2 seasons have been disgusting displays against far weaker opponents than this year's Bruins or Lightning.
 
I'd be disappointed if they lost to Boston. I think that's a great team over there but the Leafs should be able to handle them. If Tampa goes in God mode where Point, Kuch and Vas turn into monsters and they elevate themselves to a Leafs-esque caliber team, then that's probably closer to a coin flip. As much as it would suck to lose to them, ignoring prior failures where they had no excuse to lose, it would be understandable. When two evenly matched powerhouses go at it, one team is gonna lose and a lot of times it's nothing more than luck that makes the difference.

But even at Boston's absolute best, I would hope that this version of the Leafs are able to handle them. And I think they have to be the favorites to take it. You can't just ignore what they've done.. I think in prior years their regular season performances were a little overrated; they were never in the truly cream of the crop elite of the elite tier. Now we're underrating them.
 
I'll say this though...if Jack can be at least decent and this team can finally win a round and get their legs under them...look out. those are sizeable ifs but hardly insurmountable ones.
 
That's the thing with this team, if you're projecting "they're a bunch of broken losers who suck in the playoffs and always will"...then they're the underdog against any team in the NHL in a playoff series. If you set that aside for a moment and assume that the same team that showed up in the regular season is what you should expect to get, they're the favourite in almost any series they play in.
 
leafman101 said:
Ask Moneypuck or Doms models who the favourite are, not Darren Dregger.
Click to expand...
Scary how much a decision to play Boosh could swing Dom's model in any of our series.

I did a quick tally of what dom's model would say about each team's likely starting lineup, though of course I chose to believe Boosh will not be in ours, and it looked like this....

COL 40.7
FLA 38.5
TOR 38.5
BOS 32.5
TBL 30.3


Of course, so much of his model is a result of our top line being the best line in the league by far.....so they need to actually score a goal or two this time.
 
Yeah, there's no completely explaining away 62% xG but there's a few things of note.

Weegar-Chiarot are the worst defensive pairing Florida has, and by a lot. The worst xGA, and the worst GA...again, by a lot and the highest dzone faceoff usage defender they have is Zeke's buddy Radko. When given the chance, Brunette seems to be splitting his defensive usage between Weeger-Chiarot and Forsling-Gudas. Hagg is the only regular who gets heavily sheltered.

Weegar-Chiarot are on the ice for a fuckton of xGF though, which is kind of weird for Chiarot. He's had way more of a shot suppressing effect in the future than a play driving effect. I struggle with the idea of giving Chiarot credit for a 4.11 xGF/60 though, which is the number making his xGA look not dreadful.
 
MindzEye said:
That's the thing with this team, if you're projecting "they're a bunch of broken losers who suck in the playoffs and always will"...then they're the underdog against any team in the NHL in a playoff series. If you set that aside for a moment and assume that the same team that showed up in the regular season is what you should expect to get, they're the favourite in almost any series they play in.
Click to expand...

not always will. but they have to prove they're not what they looked like so far. that they've been tempered by these experiences instead of broken by them(which is what MTL series looked like to me). fwiw I see Colorado as a team under similar type of pressure, though they enjoy comparative media immunity and none of the lousy reputation, of course.

hell Florida could get there too if they do stay at this level for a few years but fail to advance deep

and if the Leafs hadn't lost 5 times in a row leading up to this I'd say this series against the 2 time champs would be a coin flip depending on who got the goaltending
 
This years team is objectively the best version of this team. And the way Matthews and Marner are playing is unbelievable and what leads teams to winning.

I get why the past would cloud ones judgment, but people should probably feel really good about this team.
 
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