• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

The Goddamn #TitleRun Thread

zeke

zeke

Well-known member
Rosters from best to worst:

Screenshot_20220429-214339_Sheets.jpg


With most recent / best guess at actual lines and pairings:


Screenshot_20220429-214405_Sheets.jpg


beauty-peacock.gif​
 
Last edited:
Once again, anyone have the least expensive route from Toronto area to Tampa for flights? I assume we play Friday and Sunday in Tampa.
 
The Leafs and the isles have been a thorn in Dom's modeling for years. The isles corrected this year. Maybe the Leafs do as well.

 
Preston said:
The Leafs and the isles have been a thorn in Dom's modeling for years. The isles corrected this year. Maybe the Leafs do as well.

Click to expand...


My biggest worry is that Point and Kucherov‘s underlying numbers dropped way down from their usual elite high-50s xgf% this year to barely over 50%, and this seems to have crashed their GSVA.

And I think there's every chance those two in particular can flip the switch back to super elite in the playoffs, which cuts way into the huge lead Matthews/Marner have over them and which is by far the biggest advantage the Leafs have over the Bolts in his model.

I just don't see our guys being literally twice as good as their duo this series unfortunately. And if kuch and point can make that battle even then we probably need Campbell to battle Vasi much closer than the GSVA indicates (which actually I don't think is crazy).

But yeah Dom's model's biggest edges are

Matthews 6.7 - Point 2.9
Marner 5.2 ------ Kucherov 3.6

Campbell 1.4 --- Vasilevsky 3.5

(Hedman is also the best dman in the series but not by a huge amount and the Leafs' depth on D more than balances it out.)

So Matthews and Marner have to be the best players in this series by a lot for Dom's model to work. And not just in underlying numbers but in actual production.
 
I will say this - the fact that Coop has split Point and Kucherov up for a long while now might show that he's not quite as sure that their dip is a temporary fluke.
 
Kucherov is one of the best players in the NHL so you have to assume he'll find a way to elevate his game when the chips are down. I don't know what's wrong with Point this year but he's been off his game for a while now. It seems unlikely he'll be able to fully rebound right now.
 
soco22 said:
Too lazy to look. He has us losing?
Click to expand...

No, no he does not.

The only analytic based argument for tampa being better than us is tampa just not giving a fuck about the regular season and magically flipping switches and shit on Monday.

Which is entirely possible, but it has little to do with their actual performance in the regular season.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top