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The Mitchell Marner Contract Watch Thread

simplified ELC numbers (Reg Season + Playoffs), with just 1. Qoc, 2. Average p60 and p1/60 at ES, 3. Average p60 and p1/60 on PP, 3. Average of cfrel and xgfrel.

ranked here in order of the ES p60 average, but you can adjust up or down based on the other numbers too.

McDavid (22, 12.5x8): 222gms, A+ qoc, ES 2.60, PP 4.53, +5.5rel
Matthews (22, 11.6x5): 232gms, A qoc, ES 2.45, PP 5.61, +1.5rel
Marner (22, 10.9x6): 261gms, A qoc, ES 2.12, PP 5.81, -0.3rel
Point (23, ????????): 250gms, A qoc, ES 1.99, PP 4.62, +0.6rel
Pastrnak (21, 6.7x6): 178gms, B+ qoc, ES 1.97, PP 4.99, +4.0rel
Boeser (22, 5.9x3): 138gms, B qoc, ES 1.94, PP 4.73, +2.1rel
Nylander (22, 7.0x6): 198gms, B+ qoc, ES 1.82, PP 5.19, +2.2rel
Konecny (22, 5.5x6): 238gms, B qoc, ES 1.81, PP 2.03, -1.5rel
Ehlers (22, 6.0x7): 251gms, B+ qoc, ES 1.80, PP 3.24, +1.2rel
Connor (23, ??????): 201gms, A qoc, ES 1.80, PP 3.22, -2.4rel
Draisaitl (22, 8.5x8): 204gms, A qoc, ES 1.77, PP 4.52, +2.7rel
Aho (22, 8.5x5): 256gms, A qoc, ES 1.76, PP 4.27, +1.8rel
Laine (21, ???????): 260gms, B qoc, ES 1.72, PP 4.86, -5.0rel
Rantanen (23, ???): 246gms, A+ qoc, ES 1.71, PP 4.94, +0.4rel
Meier (23, 6.0x4): 228gms, B+ qoc, ES 1.70, PP 3.39, +3.8rel
Eichel (22, 10.0x8): 209gms, B+ qoc, ES 1.66, PP 4.74, 0.0rel
Larkin (22, 6.1x5): 246gms, B+ qoc, ES 1.65, PP 2.03, -0.6rel
Schmaltz (23, 5.9x7): 183gms, B+ qoc, ES 1.64, PP 2.68, -2.8rel
Keller (21, 7.2x8): 167gms, B qoc, ES 1.58, PP 3.55, -2.2rel
 
I just remembered that back before Willy signed, before all this supposed rfa inflation, I had mentally slotted in $27m in caphit for the 3 kids (pretty sure I used that figure here a number of times). Turns out to be $29.5 in the end. Not so bad.
 
The number betweeen Willy and Mucho averages out about what you would have expected long-term way back ~9m each.
 
It's textbook homering. Before Mitch was signed: He isn't worth the money! Now that he's signed: HE'S THE BEST PLAYER EVER AND IS WORTH WAY MORE THAN EVERY OTHER RFA!!!!

It's fine though. No harm in being a homer really. I've seen people treat stocks like they treat sports teams. That shit is when people get burned.
 
i haven't really been using g60 much.

just p60 and p1/60.

but lemme look:

Rantanen: ES .73g/60, PP 2.38g/60
Marner: ES .80g/60, PP 1.37g/60

Mitch has actually been the better goalscorer at evens, though Rants has been better at on the PP.
 
Preston said:
It's textbook homering. Before Mitch was signed: He isn't worth the money! Now that he's signed: HE'S THE BEST PLAYER EVER AND IS WORTH WAY MORE THAN EVERY OTHER RFA!!!!

It's fine though. No harm in being a homer really. I've seen people treat stocks like they treat sports teams. That shit is when people get burned.
Click to expand...

I've literally posted those numbers over and over again from back before anyone signed. I just keep cutting and pasting it over and over again.
 
I don't see the sense in trying to devalue what Rantanen has done. Comparing himself to Marner is a lot more realistic than Marner using Matthews as a comparable, at least.
 
I think it makes absolute sense to "devalue" (read: properly value) what Rantanen has done.

Rants is the poster boy for ice-time related over-inflation of raw scoring stats.

Not to mention he's a year older - heck I just noticed that I wasn't even including Rants' pointless 9gm sample as a 19yr old.

People mention that Marner scored 94pts, which is pretty awesome, but imagine how many points he would have had if he had near 4pp minutes per game like Rants?
 
all we can do is imagine though, at this point. in the Rantanen negotiation, I really doubt that's going to count for much.
 
zeke said:
i haven't really been using g60 much.

just p60 and p1/60.

but lemme look:

Rantanen: ES .73g/60, PP 2.38g/60
Marner: ES .80g/60, PP 1.37g/60

Mitch has actually been the better goalscorer at evens, though Rants has been better at on the PP.
Click to expand...

Huh, neither one particularly impressive at es g/60 (down at 2nd line level). I've never really looked into Rantanen's numbers. Puffed up by the powerplay.
 
BeLeafer said:
Huh, neither one particularly impressive at es g/60 (down at 2nd line level). I've never really looked into Rantanen's numbers. Puffed up by the powerplay.
Click to expand...
I would also expect that Rantanen benefits more from playing with Mackinnon than vice versa
 
Went to look at these year-by-year. Marner went from 0.82 and 0.83 a1/60 in first two years to 1.84 last year. That's a huge leap of over 120% between JVR/Bozak and Hyman/JT. His goal production only increased marginally.

I can't see anything in his underlying numbers to explain this but a large increase in oish%.
 
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