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The New Division

zeke said:
I do enjoy how a player that was apparently the perfect example of the Leafs' lack of depth when he was on our 3rd line, is now suddenly a clear quality upgrade to the Sens' top-6, though.
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Damn I missed your cute little dig at MacArthur.

What line was he on the year he had 62 points?
 
MindzEye said:
Don't blame me that you don't understand math, Teach.

If Goalie A stops 94% of 2460 shots and Goalie B stop 92% of 2460 shots, calculate the difference in goals scored on either goalie:

Make sure to show your steps.

As for the Goals Created portion of the analysis, take it up with Hockey-Reference. It's their formula, I was just applying it to the Sens situation.
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Please show how you applied their formula.
 
MindzEye said:
And you're failing to take into account here the diminished opportunity those same players will now have. I didn't ignore this, I simply figured it would be a wash. Players who saw unwarranted PP time won't anymore.

Of course, you're also not taking into account that Ryan needs to bounce back to do anything more than simply replace Alfie (who is obviously gone), that Silfverberg needs to be replaced internally as well, and Gonchar was huge in Karlsson's absence last season...and of course is now gone.
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Playing with elite talents like Spezza, Karlsson and Ryan is never a wash. The players on the ice score more and the players on the second line and PP face easier defenders. The offense will improve dramatically
 
SENSible said:
Playing with elite talents like Spezza, Karlsson and Ryan is never a wash. The players on the ice score more and the players on the second line and PP face easier defenders. The offense will improve dramatically
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elite talent Ryan's produced at a 56pt the past two years, playing with elite talent like Getzlaf, Perry, and Selanne.
 
SENSible said:
Please show how you applied their formula.
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I took an expected totals goals created (GC) by Spezza, Karlsson, & Ryan. Then factored in the values they would be replacing.

Again, I wasn't getting into trying to judge the difference in the rest of the lineup, because I believe it will be a wash. For example Spezza being there will stop Turris from playing 20 minutes a game. Any benefit Turris will gain from playing lesser competition will be negated by less TOI within a goal or two.

I just don't see enough offensive improvement to overcome what a Ottawa simply returning to a "fantastic" SV% would cause. A team .935% is ****ing insane, a full percent higher than the 2nd place team...put another way, over an entire season Anderson-Bishop-Lehner would have been ~25 goals against better than the 2nd best goaltending in the league had both faced a roughly league average shot total.

That's an incredible gap. The largest gap between 1st and 2nd place in team SV% in the previous 10 seasons was .005, and only twice was the gap larger than .003.

The Senators had a monstrous statistical anomoly of a season in net last year...kind of like the Blues the season before (.929).
 
corksens said:
I ripped Sundin for him abandoning the Leafs the way he did - and I feel the same way about Alfie and the way he left the Sens.

Trying to suggest one was worse than another is hilarious though.
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Why? The Leafs didn't offer Sundin a contract, and didn't ask him back. Not very similar at all.
 
MindzEye said:
I took an expected totals goals created (GC) by Spezza, Karlsson, & Ryan. Then factored in the values they would be replacing.

Again, I wasn't getting into trying to judge the difference in the rest of the lineup, because I believe it will be a wash. For example Spezza being there will stop Turris from playing 20 minutes a game. Any benefit Turris will gain from playing lesser competition will be negated by less TOI within a goal or two.

I just don't see enough offensive improvement to overcome what a Ottawa simply returning to a "fantastic" SV% would cause. A team .935% is ****ing insane, a full percent higher than the 2nd place team...put another way, over an entire season Anderson-Bishop-Lehner would have been ~25 goals against better than the 2nd best goaltending in the league had both faced a roughly league average shot total.

That's an incredible gap. The largest gap between 1st and 2nd place in team SV% in the previous 10 seasons was .005, and only twice was the gap larger than .003.

The Senators had a monstrous statistical anomoly of a season in net last year...kind of like the Blues the season before (.929).
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Thanks for the explanation. Can you please post a link to the formula they used for goals created.

However, the explanation ignores the likelyhood that the Sens as a group will be far better in shooting % and PP%, as well as increased PP opportunities with the penalties they draw.

The Sens offense will be significantly better next year and the goaltending is unlikely to drop off as much as you'd like.
 
However, the explanation ignores the likelyhood that the Sens as a group will be far better in shooting % and PP%, as well as increased PP opportunities with the penalties they draw.

The Sens offense will be significantly better next year and the goaltending is unlikely to drop off as much as you'd like.
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Based on what?
 
GC
Goals created; calculated by adding goals scored to 0.5 times assists, then multiplying by team goals divided by team goals plus 0.5 times team assists. For example in 2006-07, Sidney Crosby had 36 goals and 84 assists. The Penguins as a team had 267 goals and 468 assists. Thus Crosby is credited with (36 + 0.5 * 84) * (267 / (267 + 0.5 * 468)) = 41.57 goals created. Note that the sum of player goals created is equal to the sum of player goals scored for all teams.
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This is the formula you applied?

So did you take the peak years for Spezza, Karlsson and Ryan, or use last year's low Sens team output?
 
Okay, but you don't seem to understand the context here.

There's elite numbers. And then there's better than Hasek put up in his prime type numbers.

You expect Ottawa to receive the best goaltending in league history next season over 82 games?

If not then you do have to accept some kind of regression towards the mean, especially given the possibility for Anderson to tire, as he typically does when he plays more games (which has a corresponding negative impact on his save percentage), and for Lehner to have to make adjustments as a young goalie with limited North American reps under his belt.

The Sens shooting % was way below league average and would be likely to improve even without adding the elite talent.
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That's because Ottawa had very few good offensive players in 2012-13, not that they under-performed. You can't just go out and assume guys like Zack Smith are going to pick up the slack here or that a guy like Pageau will continue his own unsustainable offensive production, as based on his previous track record that is an unlikely prospect. You'll get improvements from guys like Ryan obviously, but that doesn't mean that you'll automatically improve your shooting percentage as a team.
 
However, the explanation ignores the likelyhood that the Sens as a group will be far better in shooting % and PP%, as well as increased PP opportunities with the penalties they draw.
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Well yes it "ignores" the likelihood, because GC takes PP into account, and I don't think the additions will make that big a difference in team shooting %.

The Sens offense will be significantly better next year and the goaltending is unlikely to drop off as much as you'd like.
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The Sens offence should be better, yes (frankly, it couldn't get much worse than it was last year), but your goaltending is due for a correction. .935 is obscene. A .920 sv% as a team is fantastic (guaranteed top 5 in any given season), and betting on Anderson (who at best over a full season in his career has been a sub .920 goaltender) and a 22 year old to provide goaltending any better than .920 is probably a bad one.
 
zeke said:
elite talent Ryan's produced at a 56pt the past two years, playing with elite talent like Getzlaf, Perry, and Selanne.
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Heh. Doing what Ryan has done (4 straight 30 goal seasons) with about 17 minutes per game.

Try and downplay him as a 50ish point player all you want.

He'll be a 70+ point guy with the 20+ minutes he gets, top PP time, and on a line with a top centre.
 
I think that a healthy Michalek, Spezza, Karlsson + the addition of Bobby Ryan and the hopeful progression of Zibanejad and Turris will give this team more than enough punch to be able to compete with a goaltending tandem that in all likelihood posts a .925%+ campaign.
 
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