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The New Division

Yep, Karlsson had a lovely season offensively.
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k?

our confidence notwithstanding, the facts are the facts. At the time of his injury, he was short of a PPG pace.
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Black and white world you live in. Lots of things can lead to being a handful of points short over 14 games. We're literally talking about 2-3 secondary assists between what he started the season with last year and his Norris campaign.

I would absolutely admit that there were question marks surrounding his elite status if that had occurred. Don't lump me in with your hopeful shite just because it makes you feel better to assume that I would think the same as you.
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Kessel's slow start just shows that because someone else is slightly below their previous years pace doesn't mean anything. Karlsson was just as likely to pick up pace as Kessel was.

Well, sort of. Letang was PPG+ this season.
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Fair enough. He was a few points off of the top. Still on almost on pace with his previous Norris campaign.

All points are created equal now? Goals against Boston >> Assists against Montreal
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So now you like context? Nice. Sure, I'll buy that argument. Then we can also deal with the fact that one player is a forward and the other a defenseman - and of course the fact that he wasn't anywhere near 100%.

Call me when he repeats his Norris season, until then you've got wishful thinking.
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He pretty much already did, post injury. The guy doesn't have to win the Norris every year to still be as effective as he was during his Norris campaign - and certainly doesn't need a Norris to be valued higher than Kessel.
 
By the way, Mindz, can you point to any examples of a young player not returning to form after having his achilled tendon partially severed?

Seems to me that there are more examples of players making a full recovery than not. The only guys that slowed down were either in the twilight of their career already (Lang) or ruptured their achilles (Salo).
 
corksens said:
By the way, Mindz, can you point to any examples of a young player not returning to form after having his achilled tendon partially severed?

Seems to me that there are more examples of players making a full recovery than not. The only guys that slowed down were either in the twilight of their career already (Lang) or ruptured their achilles (Salo).
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Can you provide examples of players who weren't hampered by achilles injury?
 
Teemu Selanne had a 90% cut in his AC as a 23 year old in Winnipeg.

I think he had a pretty good career after that?

“For me, it was about six months (of recovery). I felt soon after that I could play my normal game again.”

Selanne, then a 23-year-old with Winnipeg, was injured partway through his second season in the NHL (1993-94). He returned the next year and had 48 points in 45 games during the lockout-shortened schedule.

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/...-karlsson-can-come-back-from-achilles-injury/
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Karlsson came back after 3. He's now on record as saying he feels almost 100%...which isn't a surprise as most doctors suggest it takes a full year to feel normal again.
 
corksens said:
Black and white world you live in. Lots of things can lead to being a handful of points short over 14 games. We're literally talking about 2-3 secondary assists between what he started the season with last year and his Norris campaign.
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That he didn't have.

Kessel's slow start just shows that because someone else is slightly below their previous years pace doesn't mean anything. Karlsson was just as likely to pick up pace as Kessel was.
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That's the issue, no he wasn't. My biggest rub with the Karlsson discussions is that you people now expect incredible production. Production only seen by a handful of defenders over the last 20 years, and only seen sporadically even by those other elite defenders, to be an annual occurrence with Karlsson. You're predicting a first ballot HOF career for a soft defenseman coming off of a severed achilles, and then acting like I'm being ridiculous by questioning it.


So now you like context? Nice. Sure, I'll buy that argument. Then we can also deal with the fact that one player is a forward and the other a defenseman
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Call me when he's actually good in his end if we're going to go down that road. He's passable defensively at best. His main utility is in his elite skating and puck moving ability.

and of course the fact that he wasn't anywhere near 100%.
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Again, small sample. Kessel has done it twice. Been elite twice.

He pretty much already did, post injury.
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Gold Jerry, Gold. No, he didn't "pretty much" repeat his Norris season. Call me when he does.

The guy doesn't have to win the Norris every year to still be as effective as he was during his Norris campaign - and certainly doesn't need a Norris to be valued higher than Kessel.
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He needs to average 65+ points a season, to be meh defensively and be worth an elite PPG winger, yes.

Again, call me when he does.
 
corksens said:
Teemu Selanne had a 90% cut in his AC as a 23 year old in Winnipeg.

I think he had a pretty good career after that?
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Sure, but as good as a 76 goal, 132 point rookie would have had without it?

Karlsson came back after 3. He's now on record as saying he feels almost 100%...which isn't a surprise as most doctors suggest it takes a full year to feel normal again.
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We'll see then, won't we?
 
That's the issue, no he wasn't. My biggest rub with the Karlsson discussions is that you people now expect incredible production. Production only seen by a handful of defenders over the last 20 years, and only seen sporadically even by those other elite defenders, to be an annual occurrence with Karlsson. You're predicting a first ballot HOF career for a soft defenseman coming off of a severed achilles, and then acting like I'm being ridiculous by questioning it.
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He was barely shy of it pre-injury, and even closer to it post-injury. You are dwelling on the fact that he was a handful of assists shy of that pace in the 14 games before he was cut.

Call me when he's actually good in his end if we're going to go down that road. He's passable defensively at best. His main utility is in his elite skating and puck moving ability.
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I see you went to the HP school of evaluation. He's just fine defensively. Post-injury his mobility wasn't where it will be (how could it be, just 3 months after having his leg cut) and he was exposed. But that isn't the way he played in his Norris year, or at the beginning of the shortened season.

Again, small sample. Kessel has done it twice. Been elite twice.
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Karlsson was well on his way to a 2nd elite season.

Gold Jerry, Gold. No, he didn't "pretty much" repeat his Norris season. Call me when he does.
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A 76 point pace is pretty close to 79 point pace, no?

He needs to average 65+ points a season, to be meh defensively and be worth an elite PPG winger, yes.
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So what he was pre and post injury.

Can you find any list where people would take Kessel over Karlsson? Any at all?*

*I found one. But all other player rankings had Hot Karl ahead.
 
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I don't remember if this has been discussed, but...

"I'll give you an example. We had a player that was supposed to be a great, shutdown defenseman. He was supposedly the be-all, end-all of defensemen. But when you did a 10-game analysis of him, you found out he was defending all the time because he can't move the puck. Then we had another guy, who supposedly couldn't defend a lick. Well, he was defending only 20 percent of the time because he's making good plays out of our end. He may not be the strongest defender, but he's only doing it 20 percent of the time. So the equation works out better the other way. I ended up trading the other defenseman."
-Dave Tippett
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Worst zone breakout defensemen
Player Touches Success%
Hal Gill 136 8.8%
Kent Huskins 114 10.5%
Anton Volchkenov 142 10.6%
Jeff Schultz 135 13.3%
Randy Jones 117 13.7%
Andrew Alberts 107 14.0%
Mike Komisarek 156 14.1%
Pavel Kubina 220 14.1%
Mark Stuart 112 14.3%
Nick Schultz 124 14.5%
Bryce Salvador 157 14.6%
Scott Hannan 149 14.8%
Nicklas Grossman 121 14.9%
Rob Scuderi 190 15.3%
Andreas Lilja 156 15.4%
Mark Giordano 206 15.5%
Cam Barker 128 15.6%
Ed Jovanovski 154 15.6%
Ladislav Smid 140 15.7%
Dan Girardi 165 15.80%
Minimum 100 puck touches

There's our friend, Rob Scuderi.

And, on the positive end:

Best zone breakout defensemen
Player Touches Success%
Erik Karlsson 258 38.0%
Keith Yandle 225 35.1%
Grant Clitsome 162 32.1%
Brian Campbell 287 31.7%
Dion Phaneuf 200 31.5%
Nick Lidstrom 211 30.8%
Brent Burns 194 30.4%
Ryan Suter 205 30.2%
Sergei Gonchar 182 30.2%
Tyler Myers 156 30.1%
Mark Fayne 147 29.9%
Joni Pitkanen 211 29.9%
Alec Martinez 124 29.8%
Jake Gardiner 196 29.6%
Toni Lydman 149 29.5%
Andrej Sekera 163 29.4%
Christian Ehrhoff 150 29.3%
Brent Seabrook 265 28.7%
PK Subban 221 28.5%
Steve Montador 229 28.4%
Minimum 100 puck touches

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1467
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I don't think we have the next Nik Lidstrom. I think we could have the next Paul Coffey. Smooth skating, efficient, puck mover that can play 30 minutes a game with the puck on his stick most of the time.
 
You guys are funny.

Pointing at the handful of games SK (Swole Karl) played before his injury and saying he was declining.

The year he won the Norris he had 1 goal until December.

If he's healthy, it's his trophy annually.
 
The funny thing is that when karlsson doesn't continue being a ppg dman going forward, you guys are going to blame it on his achilles injury.
 
corksens said:
I don't remember if this has been discussed, but...




I don't think we have the next Nik Lidstrom. I think we could have the next Paul Coffey. Smooth skating, efficient, puck mover that can play 30 minutes a game with the puck on his stick most of the time.
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That seems like the sort of stat that is useful unlike the Corsi/Fenwick BS.
 
I wouldn't say those other things are useless - this is just another method to establish how well a defenseman is at doing their job (ie, getting the puck out of the zone).
 
And, on the positive end:

Best zone breakout defensemen
Player Touches Success%
Erik Karlsson 258 38.0%
Keith Yandle 225 35.1%
Grant Clitsome 162 32.1%
Brian Campbell 287 31.7%
Dion Phaneuf 200 31.5%
Nick Lidstrom 211 30.8%
Brent Burns 194 30.4%
Ryan Suter 205 30.2%
Sergei Gonchar 182 30.2%
Tyler Myers 156 30.1%
Mark Fayne 147 29.9%
Joni Pitkanen 211 29.9%
Alec Martinez 124 29.8%
Jake Gardiner 196 29.6%
Toni Lydman 149 29.5%
Andrej Sekera 163 29.4%
Christian Ehrhoff 150 29.3%
Brent Seabrook 265 28.7%
PK Subban 221 28.5%
Steve Montador 229 28.4%
Minimum 100 puck touches
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Nice. Wouldn't be surprised if we add another Leaf to that list in the next couple years...
 
That list unfortunately was onlyva half-season analysis, from two years ago.

Does anyone know if he's followed up on fleshing that stat out a bit since?
 
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