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The New Division

PlayerToBeNamedLater

PlayerToBeNamedLater

Well-known member
Where the teams ranked among the major categories in the 12/13 season. League rank in brackets.


Goals Scored:
1. Tampa Bay (3rd)
2. Montreal (4th)
3. Toronto (6th)
4. Boston (13th)
5. Detroit (19th)
6. Buffalo (22nd)
7. Ottawa (27th)
8. Florida (29th)


Goals Against:
1. Ottawa (2nd)
2. Boston (3rd)
3. Detroit (5th)
4. Montreal (14th)
5. Toronto (17th)
6. Buffalo (22nd)
7. Tampa Bay (26th)
8. Florida (30th)

SV%:
1. Ottawa (1st)
2. Boston (2nd)
3. Detroit (7th)
4. Toronto (7th)
5. Buffalo (15th)
6. Montreal (18th)
7. Tampa Bay (24th)
8. Florida (30th)


Fenwick Close:
1. Boston (4th)
2. Detroit (5th)
3. Montreal (8th)
4. Ottawa (10th)
5. Florida (17th)
6. Tampa Bay (27th)
7. Toronto (29th)
8. Buffalo (30th)


Goal Diff.
1. Montreal: +26
2. Boston: +22
3. Toronto: +12
3. Ottawa: +12
5. Detroit: +9
6. Tampa Bay: -2
7. Buffalo: -18
8. Florida: -59
 
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It's a very strong division. Might see both wildcards from it.

Other than maybe Buffalo and Florida, the other 6 teams can all make the playoffs.
 
Yeah I was not pleased to see Detroit move over. The east is getting screwed playoff wise and that better be fixed soon.
 
The East is hardly getting screwed. The extra team in each division will likely be gifting points to the other, stronger clubs.
 
My preliminary rankings:

1. Toronto
2. Montreal
3. Boston
4. Detroit
5. Ottawa
6. Tampa Bay
7. Buffalo
8. Florida

Toronto, Montreal, Boston get the automatic playoff births. Detroit and Ottawa the wildcards. Tampa Bay, Buffalo, Florida miss.
 
PlayerToBeNamedLater said:
My preliminary rankings:

1. Toronto
2. Montreal
3. Boston
4. Detroit
5. Ottawa
6. Tampa Bay
7. Buffalo
8. Florida

Toronto, Montreal, Boston get the automatic playoff births. Detroit and Ottawa the wildcards. Tampa Bay, Buffalo, Florida miss.
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Fair overall. I'd probably still peg Boston as the division winner at this point, since I'm not as high on you guys are you are. Tampa I expect to be really close to Detroit, and I expect Ottawa will be closer to the top 3 than out of the playoffs. But I think outside of the bottom 2, it will be a tough division. Definitely not good for the east to deal Winterpeg for Detroit.
 
Buffalo, on paper isn't even THAT terrible...but still pretty bad, Panthers are a joke.

You could convince me any of the other 6 teams could win the division though, if things went right.
 
UWHabs said:
Fair overall. I'd probably still peg Boston as the division winner at this point, since I'm not as high on you guys are you are. Tampa I expect to be really close to Detroit, and I expect Ottawa will be closer to the top 3 than out of the playoffs. But I think outside of the bottom 2, it will be a tough division. Definitely not good for the east to deal Winterpeg for Detroit.
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Boston failed to win the division last year and you can make the argument they are weaker now. They've lost Seguin, Horton, Jagr, Peverley, Ference and they've replaced them with Eriksson and Iginla.
 
Only quibble, I would have us ahead of you.

I see the world in bleu blanc rouge and you see it in blue and white so that is probably the only difference.
 
I can see the Leafs finishing anywhere from 1st to 5th/6th. It's going to be really close. The teams won't be seperated by much, like last year.

It's going to come down to goaltending for the Leafs, and I have faith in Reimer.
 
Ottawa will be really tough to beat in a few years. They've got some excellent youth in their system that will walk right over this division if nobody responds to it.
But this coming season, they're not that much of a threat to us. I wonder who will be their new captain, now that Ratface is a Dead Wing? My guess is it'll be Giggles Spezzky. All the more reason they won't be too much of a threat this coming season. Beyond a very solid goalie and some fantastic young D, they'll be easy for us to beat.
The Habs and the B's are our biggest challenges, in that order, in my opinion.
Forgot to mention: it's fvcking amazing to see the Battle of the 401 return! Bring on the Leafs / Wings rivalry!
 
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blacksheep said:
Ottawa will be really tough to beat in a few years. They've got some excellent youth in their system that will walk right over this division if nobody responds to it.
But this coming season, they're not that much of a threat to us. I wonder who will be their new captain, now that Ratface is a Dead Wing? My guess is it'll be Giggles Spezzky. All the more reason they won't be too much of a threat this coming season. Beyond a very solid goalie and some fantastic young D, they'll be easy for us to beat.
The Habs and the B's are our biggest challenges, in that order, in my opinion.
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Maybe. They need to pay their players though, and with Melnyk saying he needs a casino and that he can't pay players five to six million a year because the money isn't there (this has been a sideshow soap opera the past few week/months) it will be interesting to see if they can spend to the $80,000,000 cap that is expected in a year or two.
I do agree that they look good on paper though. I'm not seeing Boston as the be all and and end all anymore, they are a team that looks like ready for a regression and they've come off an absolutely grind of a playoff run in a shortened season. We'll see. TOR-MTL-DET fighting for the top, BOS-OTT afterward and the sunshine belt teams and Buffalo bringing up the rear.

I'm burning to see Bernier in action though, he could be a real sleeper pickup for Nonis that could keep Reimer on his toes.
 
KingTucker said:
Maybe. They need to pay their players though, and with Melnyk saying he needs a casino and that he can't pay players five to six million a year because the money isn't there (this has been a sideshow soap opera the past few week/months) it will be interesting to see if they can spend to the $80,000,000 cap that is expected in a year or two.
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Part of that was greed, and part of that was a stingy owner. Melnyk was just being a typical owner trying to save as much coin as possible for himself, and hoping to cash in on some hometown discounts. The other part of that was RatFace trying to earn Sundin dollars in the twilight of his career, without the Sundin stats or skills to go with it. Greedy players + stingy owners = soap opera. I don't remember if RatFace had anything bad to say about how Sundin left here, but his own exit from Ottawa was a full-out kick in the teeth to a city that adored him. They made an offer, and he counter-offered, and that was it. He never negotiated again. At the beginning of this month, he was a Dead Wing. Just like that. What a joke - but to be expected from him.
My money is on RatFace having little impact in the Motor City. Much less impact than he ever had in Ottawa. In fact, he might even become a dressing room cancer down there. Sucks to be a Wing fan, I guess.
 
worm said:
Can you point me to a good place to learn about this Fenwick Close ?
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Fenwick is like Corsi, it just doesn't include block shots. It's a possession based stat.

The "close" part means that it only takes into account the portion of games within a 2 goal difference (leading by 2 goals or trailing by 2 goals and everything inbetween). The reason behind this is that teams trailing by a lot or leading by a lot, play a lot differently than when it's a closer game.

http://behindthenet.ca/fenwick_2012.php?sort=6&section=close




Fenwick

Another possession metric, originally devised by
Matt Fenwick of the Battle of Alberta blog. Fenwick
follows the same concept as Corsi, but doesn't include
blocked shots. Fenwick is considered to have better
predictive value for future goal differential than Corsi.
The removal of blocked shots is also valuable since
blocked shots are a proven skill worthy of being separated.
Click to expand...

http://www.puckprospectus.com/glossary/
 
I think Ottawa can win the division next season. Alfy made a foolish decision leaving for an inferior, old team in Detroit.
 
JackBurton said:
I think Ottawa can win the division next season. Alfy made a foolish decision leaving for an inferior, old team in Detroit.
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Nice to see someone be objective.

The Sens were ravaged by injury last year and still ended up with the best result between our three teams.

If you look at the stats player posted the Sens are near the top in everything but "goals for". Add Karlsson, Spezza and Ryan and that will look a whole lot different.

The division winner will be one of Detroit, Ottawa or Boston, but the Sens should be the favorite.

The Leafs and Habs will be fighting for the wild cards.
 
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