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The Official 2026 Off-Season Thread: Revenge of the Nerds

Maybe I misspoke? Or wasn't clear? I just mean that two of our four lines are what I'd rate as being 4th-line calibre.

The first two lines are fine---could even be great depending on a few factors (Matthews injury recovery, how ready McKenna is, further Knies breakout & if Tavares can continue to age gracefully). Though as things currently stand, Roslovic is a disappointing choice to slot in at either #1 or #2RW, without even taking into consideration the baffling amount of money he's being paid.

The next two lines after those are both fourth lines. Maybe one of them bumps up to "mediocre 3rd line" if we get a Paul resurgence and/or Cowan breakout. But it's a pretty low ceiling even in a best-case scenario.
 
I think a joshua-paul-cowan line could be a good 3rd line without any crazy spike in performance tbh.

But i can't shake the feeling that joshua is the odd man out which limits the offensive upside lf both bottom lines even more than it already is.
 
leafman101 said:
None of those guys are 4th liners.
Click to expand...

Are any of 7-8-9 particularly good 3rd liners either though? I mean, all of them would look more at home on a 4th line on a good team than a 2nd line on any team. Even Roslovic seems to keep finding himself getting 4th line usage or press boxed when the playoffs roll around.

Whose job on the Vegas or Hurricanes 3rd lines are any of them taking?
 
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zeke said:
I think a joshua-paul-cowan line could be a good 3rd line without any crazy spike in performance tbh.

But i can't shake the feeling that joshua is the odd man out which limits the offensive upside lf both bottom lines even more than it already is.
Click to expand...

A Paul bounce back and Cowan developmnent could anchor a legitimately solid 3rd line, yeah. But that just means we're blunting the effectiveness of two of our best players as they carry Roslovic around for 15 minutes a night.
 
Fwiw, that's something we better get accustomed to. Roslovic isn't one thing. He's a 1st liner for 20 games, and then a 13th forward for the rest of the year if the last bunch of seasons of his career are any guide.

Dude dropped a 17 points in 16 game stretch in a season he only managed 36 points in. Make that shit make sense.
 
Vegas:
Bowden - (-1.13)
Bowman - (-1.33)

Canes
Martinoook 1.3

Leafs
Roslovic (-1.18)
Joshua (-2.02)

Paul was shit last year but obviously he was a top 6 player for a long time prior to that. Much better than the players on that list.
 
MindzEye said:
Fwiw, that's something we better get accustomed to. Roslovic isn't one thing. He's a 1st liner for 20 games, and then a 13th forward for the rest of the year if the last bunch of seasons of his career are any guide.

Dude dropped a 17 points in 16 game stretch in a season he only managed 36 points in. Make that shit make sense.
Click to expand...
His 29 point pace in the playoffs puts jarnkrok's to shame tho
 
It would seem kinda crazy for Chaykes to hire a guy who was reportedly right there at the very end for the GM position. I would think it a little too close for comfort.

But hey, maybe he subscribes to keeping the best and brightest around you, regardless of anything else. Would be great if so.
 
zeke said:
Last year's net rating pace from that site for last year's guys ---> average of that and the preseason doms for the new guys:


McMann +1.1 --> McKenna ???
Maccelli +0.1 --> Roslovic -1.4

Roy -6.7 --> Paul -5.3
Domi -8.7 --> Blueger -7.3

Laughton -3.8 --> Sissons -7.8
Robertson -4.9 --> Duhaime -7.3

Jarnkrok -12.4 --> ???


Stecher -7.6 --> Raddysh +9.3
Carlo -5.7 --> Tanev +2.5

Benoit -15.8 --> Andrae +6.0
Myers -18.1 --> Stecher -7.6


​
Click to expand...

Do you have a preferred NetRating source

And does it factor in age related growth/ decline?

I think it’s weird that Dom writes for The Athletic but he stopped doing player cards for them — I miss it. I go to hockeystatscard but I suspect there are better sites

Anyway according to their Mtl beat writer, Leafs are looking at some age related net rating losses among returnees

>>Dom Luszczyszyn’s model projects the Canadiens’ team Net Rating to get a jump of plus-10.8 simply from aging — the third-highest jump in the league behind only Chicago and San Jose, two teams that missed the playoffs last season. Meanwhile, division rivals Tampa Bay, Florida and Toronto all find themselves among the bottom five in terms of aging impact, which means their Net Rating is moving in the wrong direction.
 
The lines could be really fluid next year. I wouldn’t be surprised if they aren’t too keen on Tavares up the middle full time. A Tavares - Paul pairing might make sense, with Tavares taking the draws and Paul rotating down low in the dzone. That means scissors on the 3rd line but putting him with Joshua and roslovic or Cowan means the line isn’t sn offensive black hole.
 
MindzEye said:
Are any of 7-8-9 particularly good 3rd liners either though? I mean, all of them would look more at home on a 4th line on a good team than a 2nd line on any team. Even Roslovic seems to keep finding himself getting 4th line usage or press boxed when the playoffs roll around.

Whose job on the Vegas or Hurricanes 3rd lines are any of them taking?
Click to expand...

Considering our group seems to be solid on the defense and grit part, we could look just at offense here...

Looking at 2yrs of 5v5 average of p1 and p /60:

1000097675.jpg


Actually maybe not terrible even comparing to the good teams.
 
CH1 said:
Do you have a preferred NetRating source

And does it factor in age related growth/ decline?

I think it’s weird that Dom writes for The Athletic but he stopped doing player cards for them — I miss it. I go to hockeystatscard but I suspect there are better sites

Anyway according to their Mtl beat writer, Leafs are looking at some age related net rating losses among returnees

>>Dom Luszczyszyn’s model projects the Canadiens’ team Net Rating to get a jump of plus-10.8 simply from aging — the third-highest jump in the league behind only Chicago and San Jose, two teams that missed the playoffs last season. Meanwhile, division rivals Tampa Bay, Florida and Toronto all find themselves among the bottom five in terms of aging impact, which means their Net Rating is moving in the wrong direction.
Click to expand...

Dom never has given us the only number i actually care about - the actual current updated forward-looking 'True Talent' number. It's always just the preseason projection, or the current season cumulative total, or the cumulative total plus the true talent projection over only the rest of the season.

The only place to find net rating i think is at hockeystatcards.com - but tbh that net rating doesn't ever seem to match up with dom's occasional releases. But kinda close i guess.
 
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CH1 said:
Do you have a preferred NetRating source

And does it factor in age related growth/ decline?

I think it’s weird that Dom writes for The Athletic but he stopped doing player cards for them — I miss it. I go to hockeystatscard but I suspect there are better sites

Anyway according to their Mtl beat writer, Leafs are looking at some age related net rating losses among returnees

>>Dom Luszczyszyn’s model projects the Canadiens’ team Net Rating to get a jump of plus-10.8 simply from aging — the third-highest jump in the league behind only Chicago and San Jose, two teams that missed the playoffs last season. Meanwhile, division rivals Tampa Bay, Florida and Toronto all find themselves among the bottom five in terms of aging impact, which means their Net Rating is moving in the wrong direction.
Click to expand...
This is one reason why I was hoping they'd make some more ambitious bets on July 1st and beyond to increase their potential ceiling, but instead they went safe and low ceiling. Now they have to rely on Cowan taking a big jump, McKenna being real gud out of the gate, Knies taking a jump, and/or Matthews being vintage Matthews to become a truly elite team. All of this is possible! But the age related risk is looming in the background, without much potential upside in the bottom six of their forward group.


I'm disappointed because I felt they had an opportunity to do better than 25m on 4th liners, not because I think they're a bad team. I think that's where much of the confusion lies on those who defend the bizarre July 1st.

If Paul reverts to the Paul of 3 years ago and beyond, then I'll take the hit on the rest of the trash tho. He was realgud. But the trend in his game the last two years is obvious and hard to ignore.
 
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