MyNameIsJonas
Well-known member
I think the nerdies suggest Dougie is still top 4 no?
The Official 2026 Off-Season Thread: Revenge of the Nerds
- Thread starter MindzEye
- Start date
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
My bet re: San Jose/Rielly is that their offer would centre around not sending us any bad salary back and us getting maybe a 2nd and a prospect from lower down their top 10 list.
But who knows.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
I think he's in the Cody Franson school of misused nerdies. I don't think real nerds would view him as highly. He's fine but doesn't move any nerdle.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Probably. I'm just dreaming. I do think they'd overpay if they're feeling the pressure to grab a big name on D, they're transitioning to win-now mode and need to make a splash. But what does overpay mean? Probably what you just mentioned.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
You can't automatically count out Tanev. I expect him to be back and effective as before.
Andersson, Raddysh, Danford (if Tanev isn't good to go) fill in those spots, plus Stecher would be a welcome returnee to take the extra spot and rotate with Danford (or replace him) as needed if Tanev is out.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Much better than that.
Mehta isn't trading him for cheap, and the coach Dougie has had the problem with (Sheldon) is probably not long for that job.
MyNameIsJonas
Well-known member
Yeah, i think his best shot of being moved at a discount or at all was under Fitzbumble
MyNameIsJonas
Well-known member
If i was trading for Elias i would need Vancouver to take at least 2 of Domi/Joshua/Benoit/Jarn
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Sure I can. Getting older and worse is how time works. He turns 37 in December. Even if he's not cooked, he'll definitely have declined from the last time we saw him play well 12 months ago. Fwiw, he had looked like he lost a step to start this season before he died. It was a risky win now contract that didn't work out and we should definitely be looking at getting off of it. Hopefully our doctors book him a flight to Robidas Island.
Fwiw, Andersson is probably the mistake contract of the summer waiting to happen. He's fine but just fine and he's likely looking at 9.5+ x 7 in free agency. Danford is highly unlikely to be NHL calibre at this point in his career. It's very, very rare for a defence first (only) defender to make the jump to the NHL as a 20 yr old.
Raddysh though, yeah, I'm all over that.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
The most important aspect of that trade would be retention.
Domi and Joshua should definitely go in that deal, but are off the books in just two years.
zeke
Well-known member
try this list and see if anyone pops out
i like sorting by rating instead of gamescore.
note that guys who were on the shittastic nerdies teams (like the leafs) are likely having their number suppressed, and the guys on great nerdies teams might be having them boosted.
i like sorting by rating instead of gamescore.
note that guys who were on the shittastic nerdies teams (like the leafs) are likely having their number suppressed, and the guys on great nerdies teams might be having them boosted.
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MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Raddysh is 10th among defenders....
That stands out.
Seriously though...Andersson shows okay in this metric, he's about 30th best in the league. My concerns about the contract are what they are but maybe that's just the play. Just go get both of them.
Other things that stand out:
It doesn't think nearly as highly of McCabe as you do and has him (and OEL) as good #3/4's. Basically, it agrees with me philosophically that we just need to tear down this blueline and rebuild it. Rielly & Carlo are #5's acccording to this metric, Benoit one of the worst defenders in the league, Stetcher not far in front of him. Now, I'm sure a bunch of that has to do with how brutal analytically we were under Berube, and this tool doesn't have past data so who knows how these guys looked back when we were good at 5v5.
Also, the Ottawa trade to get Spence was fucking criminal. A 3rd and a 6th might be the new Devon Toews trade.
The market to look at might be the RFA market: Nemec, Zellweger, Clarke, Drysdale, Nikishkin, Edvinsson, Schneider, Mintykov all due varying levels of pay day and you never know how that shakes loose. Who would have thought that Dobson would have been available in trade last summer? (not Treliving!)
Karlsson on the last year of his deal might be a thing as well if Pittsburgh detonates. This metric thinks he's top 15 offensively, and a bit above average defensively.
zeke
Well-known member
Current Leafs Contracts
Matthews $13.25 x 2yrs (29, 30)
Nylander $11.50 x 6yrs (30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35)
Knies $7.75 x 5yrs (24, 25, 26, 27, 28)
Tavares $4.39 x 3yrs (36, 37, 38)
McKenna $0.98 x 3yrs (19, 20, 21)
Cowan $0.87 x 2yrs (21, 22)
Domi $3.75 x 2yrs (31, 32)
Maccelli RFA x 2yrs (26, 27)
Robertson RFA x 3yrs (25, 26, 27)
Groulx $0.81 x 1yrs (26)
Joshua $3.25 x 2yrs (30, 31)
Lorentz $1.35 x 2yrs (30, 31)
Quillan RFA x 3yrs (24, 25, 26)
Haymes $0.88 x 1yrs (23)
Rielly $7.50 x 4yrs (32, 33, 34, 35)
McCabe $4.51 x 4yrs (33, 34, 35, 36)
Tanev $4.50 x 4yrs (37, 38, 39, 40)
OEL $3.50 x 2yrs (35, 36)
Carlo $3.49 x 1yrs (30)
Benoit $1.35 x 1yrs (28)
Villeneuve RFA x 3yrs (24, 25, 26)
Stolarz $3.75 X 4yrs (32, 33, 34, 35)
Woll $3.67 x 2yrs (28, 29)
Hildeby $0.84 x 2yrs (25, 26)
Akhtyamov $0.90 x 3yrs (25, 26, 27)
Matthews $13.25 x 2yrs (29, 30)
Nylander $11.50 x 6yrs (30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35)
Knies $7.75 x 5yrs (24, 25, 26, 27, 28)
Tavares $4.39 x 3yrs (36, 37, 38)
McKenna $0.98 x 3yrs (19, 20, 21)
Cowan $0.87 x 2yrs (21, 22)
Domi $3.75 x 2yrs (31, 32)
Maccelli RFA x 2yrs (26, 27)
Robertson RFA x 3yrs (25, 26, 27)
Groulx $0.81 x 1yrs (26)
Joshua $3.25 x 2yrs (30, 31)
Lorentz $1.35 x 2yrs (30, 31)
Quillan RFA x 3yrs (24, 25, 26)
Haymes $0.88 x 1yrs (23)
Rielly $7.50 x 4yrs (32, 33, 34, 35)
McCabe $4.51 x 4yrs (33, 34, 35, 36)
Tanev $4.50 x 4yrs (37, 38, 39, 40)
OEL $3.50 x 2yrs (35, 36)
Carlo $3.49 x 1yrs (30)
Benoit $1.35 x 1yrs (28)
Villeneuve RFA x 3yrs (24, 25, 26)
Stolarz $3.75 X 4yrs (32, 33, 34, 35)
Woll $3.67 x 2yrs (28, 29)
Hildeby $0.84 x 2yrs (25, 26)
Akhtyamov $0.90 x 3yrs (25, 26, 27)
zeke
Well-known member
All the leafs got absolutely destroyed on this metric this year.
zeke
Well-known member
pre-season projection ---> Actual
Matthews 24.6 --> 11.8 (-12.8)
Nylander 13.2 --> 9.2 (-4.0)
Knies 8.4 --> 1.5 (-6.9)
Tavares 10.6 --> 8.1 (-2.5)
Maccelli 0.5 --> 0.1 (-0.4)
McMann -2.4 --> 1.6 (+4.0)
Roy -2.3 --> -2.3 (---)
Domi -4.4 --> -8.5 (-4.1)
Robbie -4.5 --> -4.7 (-0.2)
Laughton -6.3 --> -3.0 (+3.3)
Joshua -6.5 --> -2.1 (+4.4)
Lorentz -9.1 --> -5.2 (+3.9)
Rielly 5.2 --> -4.2 (-9.4)
McCabe 2.8 --> 1.4 (-1.4)
Tanev 2.4 --> 0.4 (-2.0)
OEL -1.7 --> 1.0 (+2.7)
Carlo -3.4 --> -3.9 (-0.5)
Benoit -9.8 --> -14.2 (-4.4)
Matthews 24.6 --> 11.8 (-12.8)
Nylander 13.2 --> 9.2 (-4.0)
Knies 8.4 --> 1.5 (-6.9)
Tavares 10.6 --> 8.1 (-2.5)
Maccelli 0.5 --> 0.1 (-0.4)
McMann -2.4 --> 1.6 (+4.0)
Roy -2.3 --> -2.3 (---)
Domi -4.4 --> -8.5 (-4.1)
Robbie -4.5 --> -4.7 (-0.2)
Laughton -6.3 --> -3.0 (+3.3)
Joshua -6.5 --> -2.1 (+4.4)
Lorentz -9.1 --> -5.2 (+3.9)
Rielly 5.2 --> -4.2 (-9.4)
McCabe 2.8 --> 1.4 (-1.4)
Tanev 2.4 --> 0.4 (-2.0)
OEL -1.7 --> 1.0 (+2.7)
Carlo -3.4 --> -3.9 (-0.5)
Benoit -9.8 --> -14.2 (-4.4)
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Even those numbers kind of suggest that if we can get value for OEL this summer we do it. Even taking another risk in UFA and going after Ryan Shea as a #4-5 puck mover to replace him, as most metrics I've seen seem to like him a fair bit as an impactful depth guy (AFP = 3 x 3.43) might be smart. Like, he's fine, but if someone is offering a 1st or something dumb, do the trade. Carlo out the door is a no brainer as well. Rielly I see the argument for keeping.