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The Official 2026 Off-Season Thread: Revenge of the Nerds

I have no clue if he's actually good, but they're gonna need to make sure and triple check their work if they sign Raddysh. Stakes are too high to miss.

Thankfully we're no longer hoping for the gm to accidentally make a good move. I trust that the process will be there.
 
zeke said:
2yrs:

McCabe: 36.6toi% (+7.4dzs%), 48.3xgf% (+1.1rel), .57p1/60, .99p/60
Skjei: 35.7toi% (+2.4dzs%), 47.9xgf% (-1.8rel), .45p1/60, .74p/60
Montour: 38.3toi% (+2.1dzs%), 46.2xgf% (+1.2rel), .61p1/60, .92p/60
Rielly: 36.0toi% (-7.2dzs%), 49.7xgf% (+2.1rel), .80p1/60, 1.36p/60


So McCabe plays top matchup minutes, the other two don't, and McCabe still performs as good or better than them across the board, for like half the price.
Click to expand...

Sjkei was horrible last year, no arguments, so I'm not sure what the point of using a 2 yr split is other than to massage McCabe's rough numbers this year.

Montour looks pretty good in that though.

But uhh, be a dear and throw Raddysh's 2 year in there. For funsies.
 
Preston said:
I have no clue if he's actually good, but they're gonna need to make sure and triple check their work if they sign Raddysh. Stakes are too high to miss.

Thankfully we're no longer hoping for the gm to accidentally make a good move. I trust that the process will be there.
Click to expand...

If we go to market (FA or trade) and land on someone else because the nerdies say so, sure. I'm just working off of what good ol Natty has for me to see here. But it sure looks like there's a really good top 4 RHD puckmover who doesn't need sheltering available for just money, at a time where we have money and not a lot of assets. Gift horse, mouth, etc.
 
don't think McCabe's numbers need massaging tho. just smoothing out with multi years.

25-26

McCabe 37.0toi% (+8.7dzs%), 46.1xgf% (+0.9rel), 0.58p1/60, 0.91p/60
Skjei 36.2toi% (+4.8dzs%), 49.2xgf% (-0.3rel), 0.46p1/60, 0.72p/60
Montour 38.3toi% (+0.6dzs%), 46.5xgf% (+2.5rel), 0.60p1/60, 0.89p/60
Raddysh 35.3toi% (+0.3dzs%), 56.3xgf% (+1.7rel), 1.07p1/60, 1.56p/60
Rielly 34.7toi% (-7.8dzs%), 48.5xgf% (+2.9rel), 0.68p1/60, 1.18p/60

24-25

McCabe 36.2toi% (+5.8dzs%), 51.1xgf% (+1.4rel), 0.56p1/60, 1.08p/60
Skjei 35.2toi% (+0.1dzs%), 46.5xgf% (-3.4rel), 0.43p1/60, 0.77p60
Montour 38.4toi% (+3.4dzs%), 45.8xgf% (+0.3rel), 0.63p1/60, 0.94p/60
Raddysh 30.2toi% (-10.2dzs%), 53.1xgf% (+1.0rel), 0.72p1/60, 1.49p/60
Rielly 37.2toi% (-6.7dzs%), 51.0xgf% (+1.4rel), 0.60p1/60, 0.76p/60

McCabe still the only true heavy usage matchup guy here, and still putting up as good or better numbers than the rest, other than Raddysh's very curious offensive explosion.

what also worries me, of course, is that if they thought his offensive breakout was for real, how are the bolts not doing everything in their power to re-sign him?
 
Eh, Skjei has been a heavy defensive usage guy most of his career last year is the outlier but whatever. Montour is a better comparable for Raddysh, and if we could have him right now for no assets, just take on the contract, I'd do it in a heartbeat.

Raddysh's "very curious" offensive explosion looks a lot less curious when you lay it out over the last 4 years. He's had a weird development curve, from being an overager OHL stud that went undrafted to bouncing around the AHL, to something appearing to click in 22-23 when he went PPG. Rookie season he was good offensively but just good (1.0 P/60) and then his explosion into a top 10 offensive defender the last 2 seasons. Looks like the classic late bloomer outlier. Something pretty clearly clicked at 26 yrs old and he's been really good since then. But looking at his career as a whole, there's a pretty clear delineation between 21/22 & 22/23. It's been all upward trajectory since then. Each year better than the last with this year being a legitimate #1 type season and he should still have 2-4 yrs of prime left.

It's risky to bet on any outlier, but because he's an outlier and there's some risk involved, it will be cheaper than if he had a more typical career progression.

zeke said:
what also worries me, of course, is that if they thought his offensive breakout was for real, how are the bolts not doing everything in their power to re-sign him?
Click to expand...

Could be as simple as 90-91 million already on their books going into next season, and Hedman expected to be back. Part of Raddysh's value to them this year has been as their PP guy (Raddysh was 10th in PP P/60 and 1st in G/60 among defenders this season as well) and Hedman probably would have played in the next round had Tampa won game 7.
 
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