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TML? More like FML, amirite? Yet Another Off Season Thread

Wayward DP said:
you spent many, many posts talking about how you expected us to resign Hyman at a discount. pretending otherwise is revisionist history.
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There's a difference between saying something is probable and predicting that something will happen for sure.

I don't think I guaranteed Hyman or Mikky staying. I said because one was from Toronto and the other had literally just accepted less on his last deal for the team, that I thought they were likely to take less and stay. (I remember many posts saying "we BETTER sign Mikky" and stuff like that, which doesn't sound like someone who's predicted we will). Pretty sure I also said, which is the de facto assumption underlying any and all statements on the subject, that if some dumb team offered a ridiculous amount or term, then that would be that. So Vancouver paying Mikky $5M was never something I'd imagine happening or expect him to refuse, and Edmonton giving a guy like Hyman that money over that crazy term took things to another level. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if those teams had to offer them that much above market just to make them leave.

As for predictions, telling the whole board even while there were just a few minutes left for him to sign, that Willy would 100% be signing before the deadline - that's a prediction. Saying 100% that Tavares would be a Leaf over a year before he became UFA was another prediction. I also predicted Pietrangelo to the Leafs, but that one didn't go my way, probably also because of that insane deal Vegas offered.

But thinking that guys like Hyman, Mikky, Engvall, etc., will stick around for less isn't guaranteeing they will, and huge offers paying first line money or term from other teams takes it outside of the discussion in any event. The notion is, if some team is willing to pay a guy like this $500k more than us or $1M more than us, depending on the situation, I'd expect them to stay Leafs with this core and organization around them. Someone wants to pay Mikky $2.5M-$3M more than what we'd pay over 5 years no less, that changes everything.
 
zeke said:
Tavares will do a Bergeron for us don't worry.
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I mean, this feels like the most obvious, guaranteed thing. The only thing that prevents it from happening are his skills falling off a cliff, in which case he might even be done. Or he's so good and is still PPG when he goes UFA and we want to pay him like $1M or $2M. Anything in the middle and he's a surefire bet to take year by year cheapie deals in the $3M range.
 
True… there’s a magic number, $fx it’s called, where a player decides to forego market forces to find true happiness
 
LeafOfFaith said:
There's a difference between saying something is probable and predicting that something will happen for sure.

I don't think I guaranteed Hyman or Mikky staying. I said because one was from Toronto and the other had literally just accepted less on his last deal for the team, that I thought they were likely to take less and stay. (I remember many posts saying "we BETTER sign Mikky" and stuff like that, which doesn't sound like someone who's predicted we will). Pretty sure I also said, which is the de facto assumption underlying any and all statements on the subject, that if some dumb team offered a ridiculous amount or term, then that would be that. So Vancouver paying Mikky $5M was never something I'd imagine happening or expect him to refuse, and Edmonton giving a guy like Hyman that money over that crazy term took things to another level. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if those teams had to offer them that much above market just to make them leave.

As for predictions, telling the whole board even while there were just a few minutes left for him to sign, that Willy would 100% be signing before the deadline - that's a prediction. Saying 100% that Tavares would be a Leaf over a year before he became UFA was another prediction. I also predicted Pietrangelo to the Leafs, but that one didn't go my way, probably also because of that insane deal Vegas offered.

But thinking that guys like Hyman, Mikky, Engvall, etc., will stick around for less isn't guaranteeing they will, and huge offers paying first line money or term from other teams takes it outside of the discussion in any event. The notion is, if some team is willing to pay a guy like this $500k more than us or $1M more than us, depending on the situation, I'd expect them to stay Leafs with this core and organization around them. Someone wants to pay Mikky $2.5M-$3M more than what we'd pay over 5 years no less, that changes everything.
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I agree you didn't guarantee that either would resign. But I do think that you expected Hyman to. that's all. And I'm pretty sure the receipts would bear this out.

I think the point is that your expectations are often out of whack with what the market is doing. pretty sure we went through something similar with JVR too.
 
zeke said:
Bergeron didn't make $11m all through his prime.
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Bergeron maybe left 3-3.5 million on the table to stay with the only club he's ever known and put a padlock on a HOF one team legacy there. Tavares might get offers of 3-4 yrs on the open market because he's not technically 35+ when free agency opens. That's a bag.
 
Wayward DP said:
I agree you didn't guarantee that either would resign. But I do think that you expected Hyman to. that's all. And I'm pretty sure the receipts would bear this out.

I think the point is that your expectations are often out of whack with what the market is doing. pretty sure we went through something similar with JVR too.
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You just restated my own post to me. Like I said, I expected Hyman and Mikky to prefer to be Leafs, but I didn't promise it, and I didn't expect Edmonton and Vancouver to blow their brains out. All things being equal, or slightly better on the other side of the fence, and I think they would've stayed Leafs.

And I wanted to keep JVR for sure, but I don't ever recall thinking he was likely to stay. I would never think that about an American player frankly. I just really wanted him to be extended, just like I really wanted Mikky. I wasn't super attached to Hyman, though I preferred he stayed on a reasonable deal. But these dudes are $3M players getting $5M+, who didn't make much money in their prior contracts, so that was that.

My expectations are always limited to players who I think will have an affinity to play for their hometown team that will override their desire to grab every last available cent. I include Euros in that statement, but not Americans, who grew up following other teams. Like I wouldn't expect Kerfoot or Holl to be ride or die Leafs. And you need to separate what I guarantee to happen, what I expect to happen, and what I want to happen.
 
What if I told you that neither Edmonton or Vancouver "blew their brains out", but instead paid a very normal free agent rate for that level of player?

Mikky got R Strome, Marchment, Reilly Smith, David Perron, etc money as a 27 yr old with excellent defensive & PK numbers on top of the goal scoring last season. The year before, Hyman was in the same neighbourhood as Coleman, Danault, Schwartz. Now, we can say that teams do a lot of dumb spending on July 1st every year and I wouldn't argue against it. But that's the free agent market, that's the reality when we have good players nearing the end of their contracts.

Score 20+ in the biggest media market in the league and you're going to get paid. It's why a guy like Mikky came here in the first place.
 
It's the dumb spending that gets dumber every year that I don't see coming. I always think they'll learn their lesson.

And no, $5M x 5 for Mikky, coming from the biggest Mikky fan, is a silly deal that I would've never signed. Maybe he scores 25 a year for 5 years now, or can do that with a first line opportunity, but he didn't earn that salary with his track record.
 
He's a big, fast, fairly young winger who if you squinted you could bring yourself to believe that there was additional offensive upside if he gets additional opportunity. Basically a big version of Grabner. If you're a shit team like Vancouver he immediately improves the 5v5 impact of whatever middle 6 line you put him on, and immediately turns your PK into a weapon. If he just scores at his career rate minus his first month or two back from the surgery, he's a 20/20 middle 6 winger who does all that other good stuff I noted above. That's just what those guys cost now.
 
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