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Twenty Games In (2016-2017)

Elsker

Elsker

Well-known member
Well, we've reached the "let's just see where we are after twenty" or "...after Thanksgiving" point of the season.

So, let's just see where we are.

For reference purposes, here's last season's thread on the subject: Twenty Games In (2015-2016)
And the season's before that one: Twenty Games In (2014-2015)

And where we are this season, after 20 regular season games played, is at NHL 0.500: 8-8-4 for 20 points in 20 GP

Not bad considering how poorly we stumbled out of the gate (again).

And yet, just incrementally better than we managed the past two seasons:
2015-2016: 7-10-3 for 17 points
2014-2015: 6-11-3 for 15 points

The NHL rule of thumb is teams that are 5 or more (some say just 4) points out of a playoff slot at Thanksgiving rarely make it into the dance. And here we sit...5 points behind the last wild card slot team (Devils).

At least our PDO is a bit better than the past two seasons as special teams have come around.

But still the same old goalie woes, despite Cam's hot streak to cancel out his predictable starting cold streak. And still scoring-challenged, despite movement on that front, as well.

It's a more watchable team. But I'm just not feeling it for this season, although we have certainly improved our position from the 20-games-in slot in the past two seasons by the time both seasons ended.

And the same feels likely this season. But...5 or more points worth?

I guess it could happen. Unlikely...but it could happen.
 
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Nice post. Our overall play has definitely improved since the start of the season, but with Skinner going cold again (sure, it's always going to happen) it reveals just how poor we can be in getting the puck in the net. Our PK is the best in the league, we're much more solid positionally, and we're not seeing the opponents' break-aways that plagued us in October. Our games are tight and we're skating fast and passing pretty well, too. All good stuff - but it could be too little, too late - according to prior historical statistics. Let's hope history does not repeat itself.

But losing ground early is what has defined this team for far too many years and this season is no exception. I sound like a broken record, but knowing how important a good start was for this franchise, I think it was inexcusable for Peters to miss most of the preseason. Maybe it wouldn't have made a difference, but we'll never know, will we?
 
Overall, I'd say they are pretty much where I expected at this point. Again, my expectations seems to have been a notch or two lower than many of you for whatever reason. Here's what I think about what's happened thus far by position group:

Forwards
Nobody has really emerged to take that third line in tow and turn the offense up a notch and we've taken a bit of a step back in terms of the defensive effectiveness on Staal's unit. Yeah, we're getting more offense lately from his group but that's more a factor of personnel shifts and practicality. In terms of point production, Skinner and Rask are right where you want them, Aho and Terravainen have been effective if a bit hit and miss and everybody else is pretty much in grunt land. 40-ish points (projected) from Stempniak and Staal in particular just isn't good enough. Yeah, some of that is assignment based but some of it is just not getting anything in the net and that's been a general problem for this group. The first line has been good, the fourth line has been solid and everything else has been all over the place. I'll skip calling out Lindholm this time. He's played better of late and let's see how it goes if he sticks it out on the wing where he belongs.

Defense
Faulk has shaken off a rough start, Pesce and Slavin have built on last season just like you'd want and Hanifin is visibly growing. Tennyson shed a horrible camp to come in and hold down the 6th spot and this group settled down from there. Hainsey is Hainsey. Overall, not bad ... at least in the last 3 weeks or so. Before that this group aside from Pesce/Slavin was a hot mess.

Goaltending
Ward ... fine. Lack ... horrible. Leighton .... both? Dunno. He's played one game. Bottom line ... Ward has been decent IF the D plays well in front of him and crappy otherwise. Lack has just been terrible from day one, regardless of circumstances. We're getting what we're paying for ... which ain't much.

Coaching
Look ... it's hard not to blame the slow, disorganized start on Peters missing half of camp at the World Cup. In truth I don't think that's really the issue. One easy indicator that the coaching is effective is special teams play and the Canes have been organized and impactful on special teams pretty much right from game one. I think the personnel decisions in the summer made for a rough go of it early. Finding a 6th D-man proved a bit of a stretch, we apparently only have one goaltender and are still DEEPLY missing a center and probably one veteran scoring winger. It was mix and match time up front right from the start and I really don't think that's Peters' style. I know we've got a budget, but the implications of that budget and a few bad personnel decisions make judging this staff all but impossible. Oh, and let's not forget to mention that any scout that thought Nakladal or Dahlbeck were going to help this team doesn't deserve their paycheck. I mean ... seriously guys?
 
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jeffbear said:
OOh, and let's not forget to mention that any scout that thought Nakladal or Dahlbeck were going to help this team doesn't deserve their paycheck. I mean ... seriously guys?
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Now, WHO are those guys again? Good post, JB.
 
The D corps may have sorted things out in their own zone, but they've scored only 7 goals to this point. 28 assists are OK, but I think in Peters' style of play, both those totals should be higher. That being said, the D aren't taking a lot of the dumb shots that they were last year that were easily blocked and turned into odd man rushes the other way. They're finding the shooting lanes... just not the net.
 
I think given the terrible October the fact that they are still better through November with 1 game yet to play is reason for optimism. They seem to take until Christmas is seasons past to start to play well and by that time they're well out of it. The improvement in wins is attributable to some very good "team/system" play on the ice, and while it might not be 6-2 in the last 8 good for the balance of the season, outside of key injuries or goalie failure, they should continue to play well and the younger players should continue to improve. The good play was also consistent in the losses.

It seems like this team is a borderline playoff team (which is the same as previous seasons perhaps) but they have some upside. This team is better than last year's version, and has already started digging out of the slow start hole which is usually something they do around New Years.

The other thing is the pipeline. We're playing Aho, but we still have NHL level talent both up front and on D and maybe at G coming up through the system.

The team just has a much more solid feel to it. It's not like they're overachieving. I guess it finally feels like something positive is happening as opposed to the past 6 years of pseudo-rebuilding.
 
Elsker said:
The NHL rule of thumb is teams that are 5 or more (some say just 4) points out of a playoff slot at Thanksgiving rarely make it into the dance. And here we sit...5 points behind the last wild card slot team (Devils).
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A bit OT, but, can this really be the way the NHL Brass envision a competitive league? #makeallgames3points
 
JFG said:
A bit OT, but, can this really be the way the NHL Brass envision a competitive league? #makeallgames3points
Click to expand...

I think that is exactly why the NHL keeps the current point system...competitiveness. Most of the simulations that have taken used the 3 point system (all games worth 3 points) show it creating a larger separation between top teams and bottom teams. Depending on year analyzed, the teams making the playoffs sometimes change, sometimes don't but when there are changes it is to reward the team that wins more in regulation versus the team that piles up points by losing in OT or shoot-outs.

I honestly don't care if they either keep the current point system or move to the 3-point system for all games as I think teams adjust to the rules either way. That said, it would probably hurt the Canes until they make the next jump up in the rebuild process and are winning consistantly.
 
I look at this as being 'sucky teams generally remain sucky teams' more than anything else. After 20 games you usually can tell who the good teams are with a shot and who the sucky teams are with no shot. Not to say I'm not for 3-2-1-0, but that's a different issue.

But even that so called NHL rule of thumb has serious exceptions, ie. situations where a team is clearly playing way below their potential for whatever reason. Anaheim last season started off horribly and got it figured out eventually. Anaheim had won just 8 out of 23 games by Thanksgiving last year, but they still managed to finish with 103 points. Canes are fine right now where they sit in terms of having a shot at the playoffs. But they need to sustain their November winning ways through December and January to stay there.
 
cmaleski2 said:
But even that so called NHL rule of thumb has serious exceptions, ie. situations where a team is clearly playing way below their potential for whatever reason...
Click to expand...

I've quoted this from Al McGuire before, in his case with regards to tournament "mismatches", but it always bears repeating: "There's a REASON you play the game."

Of course, it took college football over a century to figure that out.
 
From the glass-half-full perspective, after 21 games the Canes are now down only 3 points to the last wild card team (Devils). And those 3 points could easily have been had from the three-goal-lead OT losses or any of the other disappointing season-opening road trip losses.

So, we're not playing all that badly as compared with the other cusp teams with which we are competing.

Plus, although early to be counting games-in-hand, we nonetheless hold at least one game-in-hand (two with the Flyers) on every team between us and that wild card slot just 3 points away.

That's a gap that's easily closed, especially if they keep playing the way they're playing and/or improve to "December form".

We're by no means out of contention yet. Could easily be one of the "exceptions" to that Thanksgiving 5-point-down rule.
 
Yeah, but... the next three games are at Rangers, at Bruins, at Rangers again. Home for a game then the second west coast swing. We'll have a much better idea after that seven-game stretch.

And this above all... everyone HAS to stay healthy. Any one of about fourteen guys going down (fingers crossed on Jordan), we're SOL.
 
With Buffalo getting Eichel back, it didn't take them long to catch up to the Canes in the standings. The most frustrating thing for me as a Canes fan was watching them not be bad enough to get one of the mega studs that have been available the last 3 year. A wealth of generational/all-star caliber young players have entered the league and it is a great time to be an NHL fan. Matthews, McDavid, Eichel, Laine, etc. Makes me sick the Canes just weren't that bad........
 
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