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What Will Tim L Do?

Before shitting on the Leafs drafting record, I'd like to see a comparison of our draft picks (NHL games played/round or something of that ilk) vs the rest of the league...

Yes, we've had that argument presented here before. The Leafs do indeed produce NHL players judging strictly by games played....problem is, they're not usually among the better ones. Matt Stajan has made it past 700 career games, that's pretty damn good.

But so what?

That's why I said it needs to improve in terms of quality, not strictly in terms of quantity.
 
The amateur scouting seems the least of the Leafs problems. In terms of development the biggest issue is the perpetual willingness to cough up draft picks.

Now, pro scouting leaves much - very much - to be desired, although they've done well with the pro trades for the most part.
 
I'm not sure if Boston's second round successes were superior drafting or just dumb luck.

Frankly, if you land a Stajan or Kulemin in round two you're doing really well. That they got all of Lucic, Krejci and Bergeron is remarkable.

Their other 2nd rounders dating back to 2000, have basically all stunk

2000: Andy Hilbert (4th line C); Ivan Huml
2001: N/A
2002: Vladislav Yevseyev
2003: Patrice Bergeron (1st/2nd line C); Masi Marjamaki
2004: David Krejci (1st/2nd line C); Martins Karsums
2005: Petr Kalus
2006: Yuri Alexandrov; Milan Lucic (2nd line W)
2007: Tommy Cross
2008: Maxime Sauve
2009: N/A
2010: Jared Knight; Ryan Spooner

Sauve and Knight are marginal prospects. Spooner's an undersized centre who has looked excellent in the AHL but doesn't have a goal in 26 NHL games.
 
Yes, we've had that argument presented here before. The Leafs do indeed produce NHL players judging strictly by games played....problem is, they're not usually among the better ones. Matt Stajan has made it past 700 career games, that's pretty damn good.

But so what?

That's why I said it needs to improve in terms of quality, not strictly in terms of quantity.

You can't just shit on the Leafs drafting/development without any sort of reference point. Well I mean you can, because then you can make whatever baseless assertions you want about it. But for the criticisms to be valid, or have any relevance, there needs to be some sort of indication as to how the Leafs are performing compared to league average.

The majority of draft picks are busts. If we hold the Leafs scouting staff to unrealistic standards, obviously the job they do will be considered a failure.
 
That's only one team, if you want to write it off to luck that's certainly your right. I just picked Bergeron as one example out of the air, there are plenty of others across the league.

But we must be the unluckiest scouting staff in the world then, because we're not even getting our share of flukes and steals.
 
You can't just shit on the Leafs drafting/development without any sort of reference point. Well I mean you can, because then you can make whatever baseless assertions you want about it. But for the criticisms to be valid, or have any relevance, there needs to be some sort of indication as to how the Leafs are performing compared to league average.

The majority of draft picks are busts. If we hold the Leafs scouting staff to unrealistic standards, obviously the job they do will be considered a failure.

My reference point is our perpetual lack of talent depth and chronic inability to produce core players/stars for the Maple Leafs. My reference point is constantly having to trade for or sign our best players, something that has been going on for decades.

What's your reference point?
 
My reference point is our perpetual lack of talent depth and chronic inability to produce core players/stars for the Maple Leafs. My reference point is constantly having to trade for or sign our best players, something that has been going on for decades.

What's your reference point?

So, your argument is basically, 'the Leafs haven't drafted and developed as many players as I think they should, or players as skilled as I think they should be, therefore we draft poorly. And, I come to this conclusion without doing any research to determine if my expectations are reasonable given the success of other teams drafting.'?

Of course, on our roster currently, we have:
JVR - acquired for a Leafs draft pick
Bozie - not a draft pick, but developed internally
Kessel - acquired for only draft picks
Kadri - Leafs draft pick
Kulemin - Leafs draft pick
Bolland - acquired for only draft picks
Rielly - Leafs draft pick
Gunnarsson - Leafs draft pick
Reimer - Leafs draft pick
Bernier - acquired for a draft pick, undrafted FA, and prospect

Draft picks who have played for us this season include: Leivo, D'Amigo.
In the pipeline: Percy, Finn, Brown, Verhaeghe

And that's just off the top of my head...

You should also recognize that draft picks are valuable assets, and if you can recoup NHLers in return for them, you've likely already won the deal (i.e. Kessel, Bolland is better than most 2nd rounders, Bernier, etc) and that would be an example of a team using its draft picks wisely, nor poorly.

I mean, feel free to show me that the average NHL team drafts and develops players at a higher level than the Leafs. Or just continue caterwauling about the Leafs failing to meet your expectations, making them failures...
 
The Marlies will be interesting to watch in the playoffs this year, their entire team is predominantly Leaf draft picks...first time we've had a farm team like that since St. John's.
 
So, your argument is basically, 'the Leafs haven't drafted and developed as many players as I think they should, or players as skilled as I think they should be, therefore we draft poorly. And, I come to this conclusion without doing any research to determine if my expectations are reasonable given the success of other teams drafting.'?

No, that would your moronic mischaracterization of my argument.

Feel free to list the core/star players our system has produced for us, particularly past the first round. Once you do that for yourself, my argument becomes crystal clear. Or should.

Of course, on our roster currently, we have:
JVR - acquired for a Leafs draft pick

....a trade. A core player we had to get from another team, in fact. Nobody is saying it was a bad move, just that yet again the talent has to come from outside.

Bozie - not a draft pick, but developed internally

A free agent signing. Fair enough on the development, but that he wasn't a draft pick is my point.

Kessel - acquired for only draft picks

Correct. Another top level player that we traded for, because we can't seem to draft one ourselves. Just like Mats Sundin 20 years ago, or Doug Gilmour.

Kadri - Leafs draft pick
Kulemin - Leafs draft pick
Bolland - acquired for only draft picks
Rielly - Leafs draft pick
Gunnarsson - Leafs draft pick
Reimer - Leafs draft pick
Bernier - acquired for a draft pick, undrafted FA, and prospect

Again, you're including guys we brought in by trade. We're discussing the Leaf amateur scouting department here.

Rielly looks like he could be a frontline player for us. Kadri is still a possibility but has not been that guy yet, save the shortened season. You're then listing a 3rd line forward, a backup goalie, and a fourth defenceman as proof that we draft well? There's nothing special about any of that.

Draft picks who have played for us this season include: Leivo, D'Amigo.
In the pipeline: Percy, Finn, Brown, Verhaeghe

And that's just off the top of my head...

You should also recognize that draft picks are valuable assets, and if you can recoup NHLers in return for them, you've likely already won the deal (i.e. Kessel, Bolland is better than most 2nd rounders, Bernier, etc) and that would be an example of a team using its draft picks wisely, nor poorly.

I mean, feel free to show me that the average NHL team drafts and develops players at a higher level than the Leafs. Or just continue caterwauling about the Leafs failing to meet your expectations, making them failures...

Feel free to provide that list of core/star players anytime man.

You've done absolutely nothing but prove my point here. I think my favourite part was "and that's just off the top of my head", like you just came up with some huge impressive list. Amusing. The Leafs have made some wise trades and bad ones too. But we're not talking about those, we're talking about the performance of our scouting staff in recent years and the results at the NHL level.

As for Bolland being better than a second rounder, do you mean the player or, if he walks away this offseason, the sum value of what he gave us this season? I think that's a debatable statement.

One more thing...you keep mentioning "the average team". Is that your bar for the Leafs? Serious question.
 
No, that would your moronic mischaracterization of my argument.

Feel free to list the core/star players our system has produced for us, particularly past the first round. Once you do that for yourself, my argument becomes crystal clear. Or should.

So you say I mischaracterize your argument... and then do nothing to clarify it.

At this point, I have no idea what you're actually arguing. As far as I can tell, you're now harping on about "core/star players our system has produced for us".



....a trade. A core player we had to get from another team, in fact. Nobody is saying it was a bad move, just that yet again the talent has to come from outside.

This is a core player our system has produced for us. We produced Luke Schenn, then traded him. Unless you now want to argue that core players drafted and developed internally are magically better than those acquired by other means...


Correct. Another top level player that we traded for, because we can't seem to draft one ourselves. Just like Mats Sundin 20 years ago, or Doug Gilmour.

I don't get this. Why is it bad that we trade for Kessel? If we hadn't, we likely get Tyler Seguin. And how does this impact negatively on our scouts?



Again, you're including guys we brought in by trade. We're discussing the Leaf amateur scouting department here.

Exactly, limiting the assessment of our scouting department only to players we've retained is idiotic. It's not a reflection of our scouting, it's a reflection of our manager's asset management. If our scouting department identifies players that are subsequently used down the road as assets to acquire better players, are they not doing a good job?

Rielly looks like he could be a frontline player for us. Kadri is still a possibility but has not been that guy yet, save the shortened season. You're then listing a 3rd line forward, a backup goalie, and a fourth defenceman as proof that we draft well? There's nothing special about any of that.

Again, I don't understand how this is an indictment of our system. You still haven't provided what you would qualify as adequate in the pep world of drafting and developing. And you stubbornly refuse to look at any other team, or league averages, to determine a sort of objective reference point for what can be considered 'success'.

All you're doing is arguing in a vacuum still, repeating the same old drivel that the Leafs don't draft and develop talent well.


Feel free to provide that list of core/star players anytime man.

You've done absolutely nothing but prove my point here. I think my favourite part was "and that's just off the top of my head", like you just came up with some huge impressive list. Amusing. The Leafs have made some wise trades and bad ones too. But we're not talking about those, we're talking about the performance of our scouting staff in recent years and the results at the NHL level.

So, talk about the performance of the scouts, but ignore the assets we used to acquire current core/star players? So the scouts only get credit based on management's decision to retain players?

As for Bolland being better than a second rounder, do you mean the player or, if he walks away this offseason, the sum value of what he gave us this season? I think that's a debatable statement.

One more thing...you keep mentioning "the average team". Is that your bar for the Leafs? Serious question.

Most 2nd round picks do not turn into NHLers (if I remember the stats correctly. Admittedly I could be wrong on this).

The 'average team' isn't my bar for the Leafs. I would like them to be an elite team. But in assessing the performance of their scouts, it's stupid to do so in a vacuum. Knowing the success rates of the 'average team' in drafting would give a better indication of the Leafs performance. Or, I mean, we could just use our guts, and our internal expectations... of course, that's entirely subjective.


This last bit isn't meant to be condescending or snarky... but I am legitimately confused as to what exactly you are arguing. Are you arguing that our scouts suck? Or that our management sucks? You variously mention our "system", "the Leafs amateur scouting department", and our "scouting staff". Because they're not one and the same. I would happily concede the Leafs have been poorly managed in recent memories, in particular the Fletcher/JFJ years. But it's unfair to pin poor management on our scouting department. The scouts can't magically make star players out of draft picks they don't have...

And again, you still haven't shown a single NHL team that does a better job drafting and developing players than Toronto.
 
Wayward, make the list.

all will be revealed for you.

I can't make it any clearer than I have, it would just be repeating myself.
 
the leafs issue is the inability to churn out talent with first round picks. they have fared ok in the latter rounds. sometimes those guys turn into stars -- but that's a rarity. if you're turning those picks into solid contributors like stajan, kulemin, gunnarsson, etc. you're doing well.

you have to hit home runs in the first round, though.

the teams that did it with latter round picks and some savvy moves (i.e. boston) shouldn't be the model.

but when you look at the scoring leaders at forward:

Crosby (1st round)
Getzlaf (1st)
Giroux (1st)
Kessel (1st)
Seguin (1st)
Perry (1st)
Pavelski (7th)
Thornton (1st)
Backstrom (1st)
Sharp (3rd)
Hall (1st)
Malkin (1st)
Ovechkin (1st)
Benn (5th)
Duchene (1st)
Kane (1st)
Okposo (1st)
Toews (1st)
Kunitz (undrafted)
Marleau (1st)
Tavares (1st)
St. Louis (Undrafted)
Jagr (1st)
Wheeler (1st)
Kopitar (1st)
Krejci (2nd)
Landeskog (1st)
Little (1st)
Iginla (1st)
Spezza (1st)
Oshie (1st)
Steen (1st)
Eberle (1st)
MacKinnon (1st)
O'Rielly (2nd)
van Rimesdyk (1st)
Filppula (3rd)
Staal (1st)
Backes (2nd)
Bergeron (2nd)
Hossa (1st)
Voracek (1st)
Johansen (1st)
Simmonds (2nd)
Turris (1st)


... you get the point...
 
Yeah the Leafs have done well in the top 10, and in the 3rd round and later, but between 10 and 60 its been pretty fruitless.

Finn looks good though. The one time they actually took a guy with talent in that range.
 
Oh. And according to a few on the Habs board, we need to completely start over.

Starting over wouldn't even be possible by trading away everyone, it just doesn't work like that. However a lot of work needs to be done in the offseason which should be:

1. Carlyle is fired, no matter which way you want to take this team he's just not working here
2. Management needs to figure out what identity this team should have going forward whether it be a puck possession style, dump and chase style, run and gun style
3. Once they figure out the identity, find a coach that coaches that type of style
4. Then you bring in the players fit to play said style and exile ones that don't

It's gonna be a long process but these are the 4 key steps MLSE needs to take if this team is ever to be a contender.

There are some good pieces on this Leafs team such as Kessel, JVR, Kadri, Rielly, Gardiner, Bernier but a lot of upgrades and questions marks outside of those guys. Nonis needs to figure out what to do with Kulemin, he needs to sit him down now and figure out if he wants to be here and if so how much, hopefully they can iron out a deal where he makes around $3-3.25M a season but if he wants more then he becomes trade bait. I wouldn't wait for FA and let Kulemin walk, if he wants too much $ then package him with a pick/prospect and try to wheel the way up to a higher pick, better to get something then nothing. Same thing with Bolland figure out if he wants to be here/how much term, if he gets greedy do the same thing and peddle him off at the draft table, it'd be absurd to give up all those picks for him only to wind up with jack shit if he leaves for FA.
 
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