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Play-in Round: Toronto Maple Leafs (8) vs Columbus Blue Jackets (9)

zeke

Well-known member
Are those playoff sv% ranks just for postseason play?
Yeah. Trying to see if any of them just got red hot goaltending to make up for middling/weak regular season stats.....and it seemed to be the case for Boston.
 

BeLeafer

resurrected
Okay, it's encouraging to know that a team can win with the 11th ranked sv%. Shit, we have hope. A lot of middling ranks too.
 

BeLeafer

resurrected
Although I suppose those ranks could be skewy due to guys with few games. Did you use any kind of game cut off?
 

zeke

Well-known member
Yeah bad goaltending will sink you every time but a good team can win with average goaltending.

I guess I should post the elite all-situations xgf% teams this year:

1. VGK
2. BOS
3. TBL
4. CAR
5. PIT
6. COL
7. WSH
8. TOR (#3 under keefe)
 

zeke

Well-known member
No media ever wants to report the stats difference with the same roster between Keefe/Babcock.
The really funny part is that when they do talk about the difference between Babs/Keefe and Lou/Dubas, they say that the new team now plays "all out offense open the barnndoors" hockey, and that they've been turned into a smaller, and less defensive team.

When literally the exact opposite has happened, and the leafs are bigger, tougher, and better defensively (by a lot) than they ever were.
 

zeke

Well-known member
Yeah all those numbers were all-situations, not 5v5. They were sva tho (from evolving-hockey.com).

Not the usual numbers to look at but I was looking for a lazy way to include special teams in the analysis, as we can't just say those are random luck.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
My biggest worry is the Elvis goalie guy. If he goes lights out, it could be trouble. I hope though that the Leafs can get to him early, as it will be a big bump in quality going from practicing with the Jackets shooters vs. the Leafs.
I preface this with: Goaltending is voodoo

But Merzlikins is kind of shit. Not shit-shit, but he was never any better than a top 5 goalie in a 2nd class european league with 12 teams in it. He has had one stupid month in the NHL (.948 in 10 games) propping up his numbers and even that is making it look better than it is. He has an 8 game stretch at the end of Jan/beginning of Feb where had had 5 shutouts in 8 games with zero bad games in there.

It's kind of hard to tell with such a small sample, but he's probably not good. Korpisaalo might be better and he's pretty bad.
 

zeke

Well-known member
I still can't get a handle on why everyone seems to think Vancouver is gonna handle Minny, when Minny had 3 more regulation wins and far far better underlying numbers.

There is no softer hockey media than western Canadian hockey media.
 

BeLeafer

resurrected
I preface this with: Goaltending is voodoo

But Merzlikins is kind of shit. Not shit-shit, but he was never any better than a top 5 goalie in a 2nd class european league with 12 teams in it. He has had one stupid month in the NHL (.948 in 10 games) propping up his numbers and even that is making it look better than it is. He has an 8 game stretch at the end of Jan/beginning of Feb where had had 5 shutouts in 8 games with zero bad games in there.

It's kind of hard to tell with such a small sample, but he's probably not good. Korpisaalo might be better and he's pretty bad.
I checked his stats a while back and didn't see many blemishes. I'll take another look.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
I checked his stats a while back and didn't see many blemishes. I'll take another look.
His swiss numbers look impressive at a glance, but league leaders are usually in the .930 range and it's a 12 team league. He's sat a firm step outside of elite in the swiss league during his time there. This season in the NHL, pull his game log and look at late jan-early feb. 5 shutty's in 8 games. You've gotta be pretty fucking mediocre to have a 5 shutty stretch over 33 games of work and not be sitting in the .930's. He looks a hell of a lot like a .900 goalie who just went all JS Aubin for a few weeks.
 
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