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OT: American Politics

Looks like Rasmussen released it's numbers for today (i.e. polling over the previous three days) and have it back in a dead heat after showing a 1-2 lead before.

Gallup's 7-day tracker should have numbers up to yesterday out this afternoon.

Speaking of Gallup, where every other poll is showing pretty much a tie, Gallup seems to be the outlier right now with a huge 7pt lead for Romney as of yesterday. Apparently when you break it down that's based entirely on a massive lead in the south, and Obama is actually leading in most of the rest of the country, but I haven't looked at the numbers.
 
zeke said:
I find it all rather insane, really.

There has never been a president who has ever been under such a sustained and extreme attack on EVERY SINGLE ISSUE, STATEMENT, and ACTION from a huge chunk of the media, and from the opposition party.

Ever.

And even then, the list of Obama's accomplishments is extremely impressive....even for a normal president, let alone one who inherited the multiple disasters he did.
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Not true zeke. Taking FOX out of the picture because they are counterbalanced by MSNBC, Bush had a rougher ride than Obama, MUCH. Sure he deserved it but to say Obama had it rougher is just not true, not in my opinion anyway.
 
Leafyblue said:
Was it just me that thought Romney was doing his best impression of Ronald Reagan? The delivery, the way he moved his head...I thought I was watching Rich Little.
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My wife said the same thing. He even sounded like Reagan with the soft rasp sometimes.
 
zeke said:
Looks like Rasmussen released it's numbers for today (i.e. polling over the previous three days) and have it back in a dead heat after showing a 1-2 lead before.

Gallup's 7-day tracker should have numbers up to yesterday out this afternoon.

Speaking of Gallup, where every other poll is showing pretty much a tie, Gallup seems to be the outlier right now with a huge 7pt lead for Romney as of yesterday. Apparently when you break it down that's based entirely on a massive lead in the south, and Obama is actually leading in most of the rest of the country, but I haven't looked at the numbers.
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Any way you slice it they are in a dead heat. I expected little movement (1-2 points) after the last debate.

I think the last debate will be more important than previously thought. How many times will they be able to answer domestic policy through the guise of foreign policy?
 
Hey I have an oh by the way question for you guys...

Why would the moderator of a debate happen to have the transcript for a specific speech with them during a debate? I think Axelrod got the better of Romney's people.
 
I have another question...

Romney keeps saying he wants to repeal Obamacare and "replace" it with "something better". If that is the case, why are they advertising that he will repeal it down here? Why not say he'll replace it?
 
Nobody actually wants to repeal any of the elements of Obamacare, because they are all good and necessary.

It's just this fictional creation of Obamacare The Government Takeover of Healthcare that people want repealed. i.e. people want to repeal the thing that doesn't exist, not the republican-created private healthcare insurance based Affordable Care act.

It's yet another example of the essential dishonesty built into the Republican campaign platform. Obama is campaigning on what the Affordable Care Act actually is, Romney is campaigning on some right-wing fiction, even though he actual supports the Affordable Care Act in principal (hell, he created the damn thing).
 
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Habsy said:
Not true zeke. Taking FOX out of the picture because they are counterbalanced by MSNBC, Bush had a rougher ride than Obama, MUCH. Sure he deserved it but to say Obama had it rougher is just not true, not in my opinion anyway.
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First off, Fox isn't counterbalanced by MSNBC - their audience shares are nowhere remotely similar. Fox's market share is bigger than the rest of the cable networks combined.

Secondly, that's just TV, the right-wing pundits absolutely DOMINATE talk-radio. Absolutely dominate it.
 
zeke said:
First off, Fox isn't counterbalanced by MSNBC - their audience shares are nowhere remotely similar. Fox's market share is bigger than the rest of the cable networks combined.

Secondly, that's just TV, the right-wing pundits absolutely DOMINATE talk-radio. Absolutely dominate it.
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And the left-wing writers absolutely dominate mainstream print media.
 
zeke said:
Nobody actually wants to repeal any of the elements of Obamacare, because they are all good and necessary.

It's just this fictional creation of Obamacare The Government Takeover of Healthcare that people want repealed. i.e. people want to repeal the thing that doesn't exist, not the republican-created private healthcare insurance based Affordable Care act.

It's yet another example of the essential dishonesty built into the Republican campaign platform. Obama is campaigning on what the Affordable Care Act actually is, Romney is campaigning on some right-wing fiction, even though he actual supports the Affordable Care Act in principal (hell, he created the damn thing).
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Should Romney win I don't think he'll repeal Obamacare. I don't see how he could. I can see him trying to change some aspects of it though.
 
Habsy said:
Any way you slice it they are in a dead heat. I expected little movement (1-2 points) after the last debate.

I think the last debate will be more important than previously thought. How many times will they be able to answer domestic policy through the guise of foreign policy?
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It's the momentum I'm most worried about - the dead heat is fine, but I'm hoping the debate keeps it right there, instead of following the momentum down to a full Romney advantage.

Obama's got some implicit advantages even in a dead heat scenario - the electoral college is still in his favour, and his get out the vote ground campaign is the best in history.

But the Romney momentum - based both on the first debate and on Benzaghi response - really snowballed the past couple of weeks, and I'm not sure Biden and Obama's good debates are enough to stop the slide....but I think they should be. The Benzaghi thing is really complicating issues, though.

I agree on the last debate, even though I think it will be the least important of the three. But I think the importance of the last debate will be in finalizing the public perception of the Benzaghi situation. Whoever frames that most effectively will have a big advantage.
 
Crowley may have actually helped Romney by her gaffe. It's kept Benghazi mainline news on another front.
 
Habsy said:
Should Romney win I don't think he'll repeal Obamacare. I don't see how he could. I can see him trying to change some aspects of it though.
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The only thing he's said he actually wants to repeal is the government mandate....but he knows full well that the mandate is absolutely crucial, and without it he can't keep any of the stuff he wants to keep - like outlawing the use of pre-existing conditions.

And I'm not sure what aspects of it he actually would want to change, except for some of the very nitty gritty details.
 
zeke said:
The only thing he's said he actually wants to repeal is the government mandate....but he knows full well that the mandate is absolutely crucial, and without it he can't keep any of the stuff he wants to keep - like outlawing the use of pre-existing conditions.

And I'm not sure what aspects of it he actually would want to change, except for some of the very nitty gritty details.
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Wow, we actually agree on something this week. I view this like I view Guantanamo. Obama campaigned on closing it. When he got into office he soon realized it was necessary to keep it open. Do not put terrorists on US soil. So we still have Guantanamo. Romney, should he win, would probably view Obamacare the same way. It's necessary. He would also benefit (like Guantanamo) from the fact that he didn't push it through, the previous guy did.

My insurance has gone up and I don't like it. My agent expects it to reduce again within two years but that is two years of above average hikes that I have to endure. We'll see how well this thing will work, I don't think it is the right plan.
 
Habsy said:
Hey I have an oh by the way question for you guys...

Why would the moderator of a debate happen to have the transcript for a specific speech with them during a debate? I think Axelrod got the better of Romney's people.
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absolute fabulous anticipation by Crowley knowing exactly what would be said before it was said so she could fact check it.
 
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