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The New Division

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PlayerToBeNamedLater said:
The Sens posted one of the highest SV% in recorded NHL history last season -- and they were still a bubble team.

Good luck with that.
Click to expand...

Try reading the article.

The Sens will still get excellent goaltending from Anderson and Lehner, but will be unlikely to match last year's save % and thus should see a moderate increase in GA.

However, the increase in their shooting % and the additions of Spezza, Karlsson and Ryan will mean that their goals for will increase far more than their goals against and thus the Sens will go from a injury ravaged team that showed huge character in not only making the playoffs, but winning a round to a talented conference contender.

The Leafs on the other hand will see their goals for drop as their unsustainable shooting % drops and can expect similar level of goals against.

Trending in opposite directions.
 
Alfredsson did get better at his predictions as his career went along. Gotta' give him props for that.

Have no fear though, the Sens still have Cowen.
 
SENSible said:
Try reading the article.

The Sens will still get excellent goaltending from Anderson and Lehner, but will be unlikely to match last year's save % and thus should see a moderate increase in GA.

However, the increase in their shooting % and the additions of Spezza, Karlsson and Ryan will mean that their goals for will increase far more than their goals against and thus the Sens will go from a injury ravaged team that showed huge character in not only making the playoffs, but winning a round to a talented conference contender.
Click to expand...

The Senators' increase in goals for will almost certainly not match the increase in goals allowed as calculated by Mindz yesterday.

The Leafs on the other hand will see their goals for drop as their unsustainable shooting % drops and can expect similar level of goals against.

Trending in opposite directions.
Click to expand...

The Leafs have a high shooting percentage because they have a lot of excellent offensive players. Nothing unsustainable at all about their shooting percentage relative to their individual career norms.
 
SENSible said:
Try reading the article.

The Sens will still get excellent goaltending from Anderson and Lehner, but will be unlikely to match last year's save % and thus should see a moderate increase in GA.

However, the increase in their shooting % and the additions of Spezza, Karlsson and Ryan will mean that their goals for will increase far more than their goals against and thus the Sens will go from a injury ravaged team that showed huge character in not only making the playoffs, but winning a round to a talented conference contender.

The Leafs on the other hand will see their goals for drop as their unsustainable shooting % drops and can expect similar level of goals against.

Trending in opposite directions.
Click to expand...


Unlikely to match that SV% by a lot.

Author underestimated the number of goals Ottawa will need to make-up after coming down from a historically great SV%.
 
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SENSible said:
Try reading the article.

The Sens will still get excellent goaltending from Anderson and Lehner, but will be unlikely to match last year's save % and thus should see a moderate increase in GA.

However, the increase in their shooting % and the additions of Spezza, Karlsson and Ryan will mean that their goals for will increase far more than their goals against and thus the Sens will go from a injury ravaged team that showed huge character in not only making the playoffs, but winning a round to a talented conference contender.

The Leafs on the other hand will see their goals for drop as their unsustainable shooting % drops and can expect similar level of goals against.

Trending in opposite directions.
Click to expand...

Maybe they just have inaccurate shooters? I don't buy that shooting % will necessarily go up or down based on one season of data. All year the Leafs were questioned based on their high shooting % but it never went down as the year went on. They don't throw meaningless shots on net and capitalize on their chances. They have better talent up front than the Sens. These all contribute to a higher shooting %.

There is a much better chance of that continuing than the Sens getting record setting goaltending.
 
JohnnyHolmes said:
Why is Anderson unlikely to be a good goaltender again?

If he falters, we'll release the Lehner.
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Anderson will definitely still be good. But he won't be best goalie performance in 20 years good, and that can safely be taken to the bank given his history.
 
JaysCyYoung said:
The increase in goals will not match the increase in goals allowed as calculated by Mindz yesterday.
Click to expand...

Mindz "calculation" was a complete crock of shit and based on nothing but his fertile imagination.

The Sens were +12 in goal differential last year, exactly tied with the lucky Leafs and their excellent season from Reimer and unsustainable shooting %.

Care to wager on which team has the better goal differential this season?
 
leaffan2005 said:
Maybe they just have inaccurate shooters? I don't buy that shooting % will necessarily go up or down based on one season of data. All year the Leafs were questioned based on their high shooting % but it never went down as the year went on. They don't throw meaningless shots on net and capitalize on their chances. They have better talent up front than the Sens. These all contribute to a higher shooting %.

There is a much better chance of that continuing than the Sens getting record setting goaltending.
Click to expand...

In your dreams perhaps.

The Leafs shooting % will go down.

The Sens were without most of their skilled players last year...you don't think that will help their shooting % this year.
 
SENSible said:
Mindz "calculation" was a complete crock of shit and based on nothing but his fertile imagination.

The Sens were +12 in goal differential last year, exactly tied with the lucky Leafs and their excellent season from Reimer and unsustainable shooting %.

Care to wager on which team has the better goal differential this season?
Click to expand...

Actually his calculation was based on math.

At a more realistic SV%, the Sens will need to make-up ~40-50 goals -- and that's still taking into account the Sens getting good, top 1/3rd goaltending.
 
SENSible said:
Mindz "calculation" was a complete crock of shit and based on nothing but his fertile imagination.

The Sens were +12 in goal differential last year, exactly tied with the lucky Leafs and their excellent season from Reimer and unsustainable shooting %.

Care to wager on which team has the better goal differential this season?
Click to expand...

I'd wager that the Leafs will probably allow more goals than the Sens but score substantially more goals.
 
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