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The New Division

PlayerToBeNamedLater said:
Do you understand how many more goals are given up when a SV% drops 10-15 points?

I don't think you do.
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I cracked the numbers a few months ago and gave varying levels of possibility depending on each save percentage projection. Ottawa might allow as many as 40-50 more goals in 2013-14 than they were averaging over 82 games last season.
 
JaysCyYoung said:
I cracked the numbers a few months ago and gave varying levels of possibility depending on each save percentage projection. Ottawa might allow as many as 40-50 more goals in 2013-14 than they were averaging over 82 games last season.
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Yep...and that's if a goalie who has never played more than ~35 games while maintaining a SV% of higher than .917, and a rookie are able to maintain a .920.
 
PlayerToBeNamedLater said:
Ya, and in that season the Sens finished with 92 points when they posted a more realistic SV% of 910.
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brian-collins-boom-goes-the-dynamitejpg.jpg
 
Hey, I'll be the first poster to admit fault if Ottawa does receive Bruins-esque goaltending over 82 games next season without a corresponding decline from Anderson or Lehner with a full workload.

Don't expect that to be the case though.
 
The Sens are capable of being a top 5 offence and a top 5 defence. Put it together and you have a team that will contend for the conference title.
 
JaysCyYoung said:
Well yeah.

But not in the same season. That's their biggest problem. It's one or the other.
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There is nothing to suggest that they can't do both at the same time.

The real key is goal differential.

The top teams are usually around +1 goal per game, but teams can go over 100 point pace with a much smaller margin. Last year, St. Louis played at 103 point pace while only being +.2 /gm.

The Habs were at 108 point pace with only a .46.

The Sens offence can provide more than enough to push them into a better ratio than the Habs last year, even if the goalies drop to 920
 
SENSible said:
There is nothing to suggest that they can't do both at the same time.

The real key is goal differential.

The top teams are usually around +1 goal per game, but teams can go over 100 point pace with a much smaller margin. Last year, St. Louis played at 103 point pace while only being +.2 /gm.

The Habs were at 108 point pace with only a .46.

The Sens offence can provide more than enough to push them into a better ratio than the Habs last year, even if the goalies drop to 920
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There's actually plenty to suggest that they can't do that, since they have been alternating between the two. MacLean's defensive system won't work if he transitions to a more offensive style.

And goal-differential isn't really applicable in this place since you seem to be pinning your hopes on a team (Montreal) that was extremely lucky last season and won a ton of one-goal games. That's why they finished where they did despite a poor starter.
 
SENSible said:
The Sens are capable of being a top 5 offence and a top 5 defence. Put it together and you have a team that will contend for the conference title.
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They've shown capable of being a top-5 offense and a bottom-5 defense in '11-12, and capable of being a bottom-5 offense and a top-5 defense in '12-13.

That is quite a bit different than showing themselves capable of being a top-5 offense and top-5 defense at at the same time.

I could just as easily say they are capable of being a bottom-5 offense and a bottom-5 defense this year.
 
even if the goalies drop to 920
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and if it drops lower than that?

Just saying, Anderson's career high as a starter is .917 and I don't think anyone would call a .910 season by a rookie like Lehner a failure by any stretch.
 
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