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New Canadian Politics Thread

MindzEye said:
So far the best they've got on him is

- Mark Carney did his job appropriately at Brookfield
- Mark Carney's wife was photographed talking to a sex trafficker at a music festical in 2013
- Stephen Harper pretends to not think he was good at his job despite publicly jerking him off for being really good at his job in 2009
- Bringing UK politicians who drove the UK economy into a fucking iceberg onto podcasts to blame Carney for their own stupidity

I'm not so sure there are skeletons if that's what they've found so tbh. They would absolutely love to stop the bleeding in the polls and they've got nothing. Pierre is firing out panic tax cuts now as his platform.
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The response to this should be simple enough.

"Please tell Canadians what you are hiding by not being vetted for security clearance."
 
manny said:
Yeah I don’t think this “we’re broken, we’re weak, we’re stupid” Trumpist rhetoric is going to play well with anyone outside the Maple MAGA movement. Liberal fatigue is real though.
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Yep.

There’s a scenario where this is like Wynn v Brown in Ontario. i.e. Libs win despite the party being a shuffling zombie because the opponent is a ridiculous twerp.

That said, I don’t see the CPC evolving from their current weirdo MAGA-lite shit talking ways in the next cycle, so installing a new, pragmatic leader living in the real world remains doubtful. Their leader is likely to be another creepy pissant.
 
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worm said:
I do hate this Canada is broken BS. Canada rocks.

But I found it hilarious that person pointed to trust. There is one person I do not trust and I'm not alone out here
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Unless I'm mistaken, much or most of the print media are decidedly favoring the Cons (especially the Editorial boards) for a while now so that opinion piece from the National Post doesn't surprise me. So much for the "Liberal biased news media".
 
lecoqsportif said:
Yep.

There’s a scenario where this is like Wynn v Brown in Ontario. i.e. Libs win despite the party being a shuffling zombie because the opponent is a ridiculous twerp.

That said, I don’t the CPC evolving from their current weirdo MAGA-lite shit talking ways in the next cycle, so installing a new, pragmatic leader living in the real world remains doubtful. Their leader is likely to be another creepy pissant.
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Pierre is stuck between two halves of a voting base. People who buy "fuck Trudeau" flags and think con trails are real things done by the WEF to make us all trans trans trans and normal conservative Canadians. Those people don't speak the same languages, and Pierre has a needle to thread when it comes to talking poorly about the Diaper Don.

But what we're seeing the recent polls is that the growth of the Conservative voting base from it's traditional 32-33% to the 40% we saw in Liberal fatigued polls from a few months ago, has mostly evaporated.

If we look at polling numbers over the last 10 days in isolation (16 polls), it's 39L-36C

A lot can happen over the course of the campaign, but with voting efficiency being deeply in the Liberals favour, Carney would have to bottle this badly imo.
 
manny said:
Yeah I don’t think this “we’re broken, we’re weak, we’re stupid” Trumpist rhetoric is going to play well with anyone outside the Maple MAGA movement. TRUDEAU fatigue is real though.
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Fixed.

Canadian voters occasionally get tired of specific Liberal politicians but they never get tired of the Liberal Party, especially when the alternatives are these fucking dopes:
Pierre-Poilievre-attack-1.png20230120110152-63cac6d939a29a09c04e060fjpeg.jpg26599720_web1_20210923120936-614cad74f72acdb53848d37djpeg.jpgYves-Francois-Blanchet-1.jpg
Jagmeet_Singh_opener3.jpg
 
MindzEye said:
Pierre is stuck between two halves of a voting base. People who buy "fuck Trudeau" flags and think con trails are real things done by the WEF to make us all trans trans trans and normal conservative Canadians. Those people don't speak the same languages, and Pierre has a needle to thread when it comes to talking poorly about the Diaper Don.

But what we're seeing the recent polls is that the growth of the Conservative voting base from it's traditional 32-33% to the 40% we saw in Liberal fatigued polls from a few months ago, has mostly evaporated.

If we look at polling numbers over the last 10 days in isolation (16 polls), it's 39L-36C

A lot can happen over the course of the campaign, but with voting efficiency being deeply in the Liberals favour, Carney would have to bottle this badly imo.
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And as we all know, ME election assertions always age well! Right @worm?
 
Preston said:
And as we all know, ME election assertions always age well! Right @worm?
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Recency bias. Biden, 2018 mid terms, Trudeau 2021, 2019, 2015.

Yes, I did not think white women and latinos would go full nazi. You got me.

So yeah, I'm very comfortable with my "Polievre's sky high numbers are based on Trudeau fatigue and few actually like him" call, to this day. You make sure you keep this same energy on the 28th champ.
 
0_LEC_RPAT_ChristopherBouzy_07122022.jpg
 
The nice thing is that I see the maple magas coping by using cross tabs now. So it's definitely the reverse of what happened in the US.

But the Carney honeymoon period threat is still alive. Time is running out for PP to reverse that tho.
 
Preston said:
But the Carney honeymoon period threat is still alive. Time is running out for PP to reverse that tho.
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If Carney is +3-4 points right now, which appears to be the reality, he'll need to shed 5-6 points nationally for fairly weak minority PP minority. National percentages don't really mean much in Canada within reason.

1742845762134.png

Even only being stuck 4 points in Ontario, because of yet again how concentrated CPC support is even here, is a crushing 78-40 LPC win because winning Milton and Barrie with 65% of the vote doesn't get bonus points.

Similarly, a 3 point CPC lead in BC is basically a dead heat for seat count for the same reasons. Winning the mountain ridings with 70% doesn't win you more seats.
 
Preston said:
The nice thing is that I see the maple magas coping by using cross tabs now. So it's definitely the reverse of what happened in the US.

But the Carney honeymoon period threat is still alive. Time is running out for PP to reverse that tho.
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PP can still win 🏅 if he’s allowed to casually eat an apple during the debates
 
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