Hurricanes 2024-25 Post Mortem and Off Season Stuff

[jeffbear]

Maybe we can save every other thread veering off into this territory by making a dedicated thread on the topic of what went wrong and how to fix it.


Maybe


Probably not, but it's worth a shot

So, Carolina met their Waterloo in the form of the Florida Panthers (again) but had a successful regular season and won two playoff rounds in 5 games. Hard to call that a failure, especially coming on the heels of a summer (and season) with so many roster changes. Sure, there's much to address going forward but the roster management situation is pretty stable and there's a ton of resources available for a summer that was always gearing up to be pivotal. Carolina has $28.4 million in Cap space this summer, which is significantly more than any team that can realistically call themselves a contender. They have both goalies locked up (more on that in a minute), have three depth forward slots to fill and two expiring veteran contracts on defense. They have a cheap and natural fix for the D if they want to take it, so you're looking at roughly $23-25 million in free Cap. Fans may be angry now, but the position the team is in is kind of bonkers. And they still have 4 first round picks over the next three years and a full cupboard of prospects to play with. Let's look at player groups ...

Goalies ...
Contract wise, you can run it back next season for a reasonable cost if you want. I don't want, as I'm personally done waiting for Kochetkov to mature. At 25 years old he 100% is what he's going to be. Which is mercurial to the point of unstable. So, I'd think they need to save some cash for a different platoon partner for Andersen. That will require some trade action, you'd think. The goalie market kind of sucks, which is why Freddie got that extension.

Defense ...
Barring a change of course, the Canes are on schedule to let Burns and Orlov go and replace them with Nikishin and Morrow. You could 100% make the case that it's a simple adjustment of pairings, but I think you're going to have to convince the coaching staff a bit. I suspect Brind'Amour will want one of those guys back, and hopefully it would be Orlov because Burnsie looks increasingly cooked. Orlov would make the pairings a little awkward, but it would be do-able for the right price. They also need to go get some better options at 7 and 8. Just basic stay at home types who can hold down substitute duty without too much sheltering. Nothing dramatic.

Forwards ...
Here's where it gets tricky. No matter how you define the terms, the Canes simply CANNOT go into another season trying to contend with their current group of centers. Ideally, you'd figure out how to get a 1C and slide Aho to 2C, but either way you CANNOT expect Kotkaniemi to carry a scoring line at this point. It wouldn't shock me if they trade him or buy him out, frankly. Something absolutely has to give at that slot, and you just ended a playoff series with Mark Effing Jankowski centering your second scoring line ... if you are a visual learner and need an object lesson. Speaking of things that have to give, the Cap space they've got needs to produce at least one proper difference making forward of some kind. Scorer, playmaker, center, wing, whatever. This roster needs a guy who actually produces counting stats, and they have the resources to make it happen. Maybe you add a center with some size and a winger with high end skill, maybe the other way around ... I don't really care about the specifics. But they badly need to address Top 6 concerns this summer with guys who already can instead of guys who will be able to some day. Then you tinker around the edges. Maybe Robinson comes back. I thought Jost and Jaaska were service-able depth guys. Maybe you save some space for a kid. All that is well and good, but the Top 6 is where the money needs to go this summer.

Staff ...
Here I am once again asking for somebody in the front office to force Brind'Amour to address his power play problem. Add a specialist tactical guy. Replace Daniels with somebody more dynamic. I literally don't care. Just do SOMETHING.

So, have at it.

 

[jeffbear]

BTW, a friend suggested to me that it would make more sense on D for the Canes to bring back Burns, shifting him to 3rd pairing duty with Ghost, and let Orlov walk. I'd agree except for the one glaring flaw in that plan. Brind'Amour trusts Burns beyond all reason and will almost certainly over-slot him until his legs literally fail. Re-sign him and he's gonna be playing the same role he played this year. Hard pass.

 

[cmon3]

I’m concerned about RBA and any of his aging horses. He loves his guys and similar to his playing career he doesn’t seem to realize they’re cooked. So Burns probably needs to go and I know Jordon’s on that same glide path. I’d like to see him figure out how to stop leaning on those guys because if you limited their minutes they can be effective and if Burns ends up somewhere that picks their spots for him he’ll be great.

Thinking this is similar to how Edmonton has used Corey Perry and how effective that’s been but if they expect him to take Hyman’s minutes for more than a game I expect that will cost them.

 

[CanadaCanes]

We all waited for this summer to come calling based on all that cap space opening up and now were a little over a month away from that happening! I think most of us have trust in Tulsky and company being creative in addressing some of the needs and holes to be filled, the bigger question remains, how do you do that in a summer where the UFA crop is far from great and a rising cap where many teams have lots of money to spend.

Goaltending: Bringing Freddy back at that modest one year price makes sense, and his playoff was pretty steady and at times more than adequate, but again his age and his health history tells you that another season of wear and tear comes with risks. Koochie to me is a liability, does it make more sense to make a hockey trade to swap out Koochie for another NHL caliber goaltender and still go out and sign a capable third goalie to spell off Freddy if and when he gets dinged up? I say yes, Koochie traded for another capable, proven backup and still go out and find an Alex Lyon type who could play NHL minutes is a must do.

Defense: Nikishin should be ready to play in the top 4 next year, Morrow is not, go out and sign a guy like Gavrikov that eats a ton of NHL minutes in your top two pairs and let him mentor Nikishin as a fellow Russian with the language barrier. Morrow needs more seasoning and is fine as a seventh D option. Orlov is gone and I really do not see Burns being back unless it's in a third pairing role with Rod pushing hard for Burns return.

Forwards: KK has to go, seek a trade first and if that fails use that buyout window and get out from under that guy, you simply cannot bring him back, even as a three C, it was a failed science experiment for the most part. So you essentially need to add two centers this summer somehow and one of them has to be able to play a high end top six role and provide offense. This team is still way too small up front, if guys like Blake, Stankoven, Aho, Jarvis and even Nadeau are huge parts of your offense moving forward, you have to add some more physicality and girth up front...guys like Staal and Martinook are not getting younger and the miles are piling up, go out and find a couple younger, bigger bodied guys that can balance out the forward group. I would stay clear of Marner, his size and lack of grit would just further add to the small, skilled forward mix of this team and the cost would be better spent spreading that money around to 2-3 guys to balance out your roster.

Coaching: As stubborn as Rod is, he needs to be convinced that Daniels needs to go, you need some change in the coaching mix, that PP needs a different voice, this is the summer to make that change/tweak if you will.

In many ways this team overachieved this past season and no one can be disappointed with a final four berth and three rounds of playoffs, moving forward you have to find a way to add those missing pieces to better handle the juggernaut teams like Florida.

 

[jeffbear]

I’m concerned about RBA and any of his aging horses. He loves his guys and similar to his playing career he doesn’t seem to realize they’re cooked. So Burns probably needs to go and I know Jordon’s on that same glide path. I’d like to see him figure out how to stop leaning on those guys because if you limited their minutes they can be effective and if Burns ends up somewhere that picks their spots for him he’ll be great.

Thinking this is similar to how Edmonton has used Corey Perry and how effective that’s been but if they expect him to take Hyman’s minutes for more than a game I expect that will cost them.

Yeah, I do think that Brind'Amour needs to be protected from his own worst instincts. Not that different than last summer when he would have moved heaven and earth to keep Pesce and Skjei. Pesce at least still has something offer, as he showed in the playoffs for the Devils if not so much in the regular season. But Skjei was a hot mess in Nashville and had been losing speed for a while. He would have been an expensive, but comfortable mistake. I feel the same about Burns, although I'm not sure how expensive he'd be. Orlov probably has a couple of years left in the tank if he'd take off season conditioning seriously for once, but I'd still remove that temptation as well.

 

[jeffbear]

Defense: Nikishin should be ready to play in the top 4 next year, Morrow is not, go out and sign a guy like Gavrikov that eats a ton of NHL minutes in your top two pairs and let him mentor Nikishin as a fellow Russian with the language barrier. Morrow needs more seasoning and is fine as a seventh D option. Orlov is gone and I really do not see Burns being back unless it's in a third pairing role with Rod pushing hard for Burns return.

Honestly, even with his showing in these playoffs, I think Morrow would be fine if he was used in a sheltered role. The issue is Ghost. He also needs to be sheltered and the two make a pretty terrible pairing. Morrow may be a guy you have to move for fit reasons, but if he's forced into the lineup I'm pretty sure his learning curve won't be that steep and he's clearly got NHL game under the hood.

 

[polarbare]

Goaltending - If you can ugrade here obviously you do. I think that if it's Pyotr/Andersen to start the year you ride Pyotr and keep Freddie's games on the lower side. You'll be a playoff team so save Freddie as much as is reasonable.

Defense - Morrow and Nikishin will be fine. I'm not blaming a rookie whose TOI all season was mismanaged by the coaching staff for ECF mistakes. He should have been in and out of the lineup all year once the playoffs were all but assured, but RBA refused to sit Burns' old tired self - that's not Morrow's fault, he could have easily been ready to go. You cannot re-sign Burns or Orlov because the idea that RBA will suddenly fix his biggest weak spot this offseason is a fantasy, and as a D&D GM, I know fantasy.

Offense - Trade KK, not because he's not good enough but he should be filling Staal's shutdown role and you have 2 more years of that so give KK a chance somewhere else. RBA putting KK in the doghouse for every mistake is laughable considering that none of the other guys get the same treatment (looking at Svech in particular). See what you can do about a real 1C, drop Aho to 2C and boogie.

Coaching - Calling for Daniels' head is a dog that won't hunt; it ain't happening. I've been calling instead for bringing in someone who will push rba to be better, and to face his weak spots. (How do you not call a TO last night after the 2nd goal (and honestly maybe even the first given what the Canes have done this year giving up 2-3 quick ones back to back) If they brought in someone RBA respects but who will push him, that would be the biggest offseason get.

 

[jeffbear]

Coaching - Calling for Daniels' head is a dog that won't hunt; it ain't happening. I've been calling instead for bringing in someone who will push rba to be better, and to face his weak spots. (How do you not call a TO last night after the 2nd goal (and honestly maybe even the first given what the Canes have done this year giving up 2-3 quick ones back to back) If they brought in someone RBA respects but who will push him, that would be the biggest offseason get.

That's why I'm hoping for an expanded staff. Most teams carry a quality control or tactical coach in addition to the two assistants on the bench. Carolina basically uses Huffine in this capacity but he's just a very good video guy and nothing more. If ever there was a team crying out for some fresh ideas (especially on the power play), it's this one. And yeah, I think it would have to be somebody Roddy has worked with and respects. Hell, I'd give him a budget, tell him he's got to hire a guy and let him go make the hire himself. They just need a fresh perspective, IMO. And hey, maybe you go find an old coach and bring them in as a consultant. That's worked some places as well. All this gotta change the basic system stuff is not only not happening, I don't think it's true. They need a fresh set of eyes, not an overhaul.

 

[Christer]

I think the d needs to get a bit bigger preferably. Ghost, Walker, Chatfield and Orlov are all pretty short and lack the reach you want. Chatfield is fine but I would replace the rest of them if possible.

 

[TheBigKahuna]

BTW, a friend suggested to me that it would make more sense on D for the Canes to bring back Burns, shifting him to 3rd pairing duty with Ghost, and let Orlov walk. I'd agree except for the one glaring flaw in that plan. Brind'Amour trusts Burns beyond all reason and will almost certainly over-slot him until his legs literally fail. Re-sign him and he's gonna be playing the same role he played this year. Hard pass.

The problem is, Brindy is gonna run Burns out there 24 minutes a night. You have to completely take away the security blanket, or Brindy swaddles himself in it every night.

 

[TheBigKahuna]

The Canes top target should be a true #1 cemter. A big one too. A 6-2", 215+ pound center is the biggest puzzle piece this team is lacking. And there's nothing in the pipeline. They don't grow on trees either. But Aho just isn't a true #1. And the sooner the Canes accept that the better off they'll be..

 

[jeffbear]

I think the d needs to get a bit bigger preferably. Ghost, Walker, Chatfield and Orlov are all pretty short and lack the reach you want. Chatfield is fine but I would replace the rest of them if possible.

Well, both Nikishin and Morrow are big in their own way. Nikishin is just big, while Morrow is long and lanky. No way the front off ice bails on Walker with that contract, and I'd submit that he was under-utilized this season. He's not big, but he's mobile and doesn't get rag-dolled. Ghost? Yeah. I doubt they hand the PP over to Nikishin just yet. You'll have to deal with him for another year, I suspect.

 

[jeffbear]

The Canes top target should be a true #1 cemter. A big one too. A 6-2", 215+ pound center is the biggest puzzle piece this team is lacking. And there's nothing in the pipeline. They don't grow on trees either. But Aho just isn't a true #1. And the sooner the Canes accept that the better off they'll be..

That phrase "don't grow on trees" is doing a LOT of work in that post. Most playoff caliber teams are quite settled at 1C, and the majority have a bigger guy of some description. Heck, Edmonton has 3 when they use the Nuge at center. But if you think Carolina been taking swings at scoring wingers for a long time without thinking about 1Cs, then you're wrong. The only one who was a lock that hit the market in recent memory was Eichel, and I guess Strome and DuBois if you want to push it a bit. Carolina didn't make a play for Strome or DuBois for fit and reliability reasons, and IMO that was 100% correct. They did dig in on Eichel, but didn't get far. He wanted a glamor posting after Buffalo.

But that's not just a big ask, it's probably a blow up your roster ask. I don't see that happening. I think it's far more likely that they try to get a 2C.

 

[cmon3]

But that's not just a big ask, it's probably a blow up your roster ask. I don't see that happening. I think it's far more likely that they try to get a 2C.

Then maybe you go ahead and pull the pin/light the fuse etc. if there’s a way to make it happen. A big enough 2C to work with 4 mites, with enough talent is probably as hard to find. You can’t go small 2C unless you blow up the 4 mites.

So let’s say drop Blake down. Replace with Aho jr. as 2C. fill your 2 wing slots with big talented mean spirited wingers. Might work.

 

[jeffbear]

Just replace KK with somebody who looks like KK but plays like Trocheck and then tinker with the rest however you want. I'd also prioritize a Top 6 playmaking wing or else we're just going to keep whistling past the power play graveyard forever. Two big moves, a few little moves and let the D take the next steps they've already been planning. That's my big plan.

And with what's on tap in the market over the next 2-3 years, I can't see Dundon blowing up everything even if he could, because it would entail going through a rebuild. 2 key forwards and some depth moves? With the budget they have available? Yeah, that's very do-able.

 

[CanadaCanes]

You have a bunch of RFA centers out there that the Canes could use some of that draft capital and picks on if you could find a trade you liked. Names like Gabe Villardi, Mason McTavish and Marco Rossi all play center and are young and promising talents. There are also some interesting UFA centers that could hold some appeal if you were adding two centers this summer...a Morgan Geekie return wouldnt be terrible and of course you have the belle of the ball in Sam Bennett. Brock Nelson...an upgrade over KK for sure!

 

[Christer]

I don't think Bennett will leave Florida but I always thought of Nelson as a Canes type of player.

 

[andyt]

I don't think Bennett will leave Florida but I always thought of Nelson as a Canes type of player.

The Panthers fans sitting next to us last night are convinced that Bennett wants to go to Toronto.

You have a bunch of RFA centers out there that the Canes could use some of that draft capital and picks on if you could find a trade you liked. Names like Gabe Villardi, Mason McTavish and Marco Rossi all play center and are young and promising talents. There are also some interesting UFA centers that could hold some appeal if you were adding two centers this summer...a Morgan Geekie return wouldnt be terrible and of course you have the belle of the ball in Sam Bennett. Brock Nelson...an upgrade over KK for sure!

Rossi is listed at 5’9”. If you think the top 6 needs to get bigger, he’s not your man. Vilardi and McTacish have decent size. Nelson will be 34 when the season starts.

 

[andyt]

End of season media availability with players is today from 10-1. RBA and Tulsky will speak at a later date.

 

[polarbare]

Florida won't have enough cap to sign everyone, neither will Dallas and a few others. Guys will become available, just don't know that they'll be the right guys.