• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

The Official 2026 Off-Season Thread: Revenge of the Nerds

You gotta think McKenna is pumped, too. Very realistic road to a Calder if he's playing on Auston's wing year 1. No other team in that draft range could offer a better linemate for him.

Maybe this time try not to surround him with losers like Marleau and Thornton.
 
hockeylover said:

View: https://x.com/NHL_Watcher/status/2052076571209453625?s=20

To which charts would he be referring
Click to expand...


Pick values. The historically tracked value of each pick slot and he's right. Even if someone was convinced that Carels was a surefire stud and would be available at the 4, the gap in value between the picks is fucking immense historically and needs to be treated as such in any theoretical trade discussion. The value gap between 1 to 4 is basically the value of a good young player like Knies by itself.
 
Here is a chart that apparently the Canadiens used at a previous draft

1778091060536.png

So basically, the value of a 1 pick is the combined value of the 4th & 5th overall. So in practical terms, McKenna = Carels + Verhoeff/Malhotra/etc
 
MindzEye said:
Here is a chart that apparently the Canadiens used at a previous draft

View attachment 34104

So basically, the value of a 1 pick is the combined value of the 4th & 5th overall. So in practical terms, McKenna = Carels + Verhoeff/Malhotra/etc
Click to expand...

0621brad-treliving-maple-leafs-gm-scaled-e1687279269177.jpg
 
hockeylover said:
Man, I’ve never seen so many other fanbases spin getting a first overall into something so negative before.

Leafs are fucked, what do you expect this kid to make the difference, have you looked at the D, etc etc.

Riding the bitter bus hard.
Click to expand...
Stay off social media. Always.
 
MindzEye said:
Here is a chart that apparently the Canadiens used at a previous draft

View attachment 34104

So basically, the value of a 1 pick is the combined value of the 4th & 5th overall. So in practical terms, McKenna = Carels + Verhoeff/Malhotra/etc
Click to expand...
Interesting

I think it’s undervaluing late firsts and overvaluing picks in the 35-50 range.

I think there’s some variability in the last few firsts / first few seconds but there’s a huge drop off in likelihood of drafting a top scoring fwd outside of the first round
 
Listening to that idiot, Wheeler, talk.

He basically says people only began wondering if Gavin would be the #1 pick in the fall, but that sort of went away as the season went on. The conversation has shifted and he's widely viewed as the #1 prospect now and he'd be surprised if the Leafs don't take him and believes they absolutely should take him and it's not much of a question that he's the #1 in this draft.

He thinks he's gonna struggle in the NHL next year and there will be a major learning curve. Feels he's a bit soft on pucks, doesn't battle, is a perimeter guy, lacks details, etc. He's weak and frail and doesn't really involve himself in battles. He expects it'll be similar to the Jack Hughes rookie season. He also says he's a worse skater and less competitive than Hughes. He can be very difficult and frustrating to watch because of his lack of compete. He says he's not Bedard or Celebrini caliber or style of player either. Says maybe a Panarin type is the upside. He's unbelievably talented and mentions how much he scored in the WHL and how favorably it compares to the Bedard types so there is lots of upside.

Also re: Marner comparisons - Some similarities, but Gavin is more talented, more electric, more dynamic, but not as good defensively or off the puck; not even close. Gavin needs to be scoring to be impactful, Mitch doesn't.
 
Preston said:
Listening to that idiot, Wheeler, talk.

He basically says people only began wondering if Gavin would be the #1 pick in the fall, but that sort of went away as the season went on. The conversation has shifted and he's widely viewed as the #1 prospect now and he'd be surprised if the Leafs don't take him and believes they absolutely should take him and it's not much of a question that he's the #1 in this draft.

He thinks he's gonna struggle in the NHL next year and there will be a major learning curve. Feels he's a bit soft on pucks, doesn't battle, is a perimeter guy, lacks details, etc. He's weak and frail and doesn't really involve himself in battles. He expects it'll be similar to the Jack Hughes rookie season. He also says he's a worse skater and less competitive than Hughes. He can be very difficult and frustrating to watch because of his lack of compete. He says he's not Bedard or Celebrini caliber or style of player either. Says maybe a Panarin type is the upside. He's unbelievably talented and mentions how much he scored in the WHL and how favorably it compares to the Bedard types so there is lots of upside.

Also re: Marner comparisons - Some similarities, but Gavin is more talented, more electric, more dynamic, but not as good defensively or off the puck; not even close. Gavin needs to be scoring to be impactful, Mitch doesn't.
Click to expand...

Tl Dr
Patrick Kane
 
mbow30 said:
Interesting

I think it’s undervaluing late firsts and overvaluing picks in the 35-50 range.

I think there’s some variability in the last few firsts / first few seconds but there’s a huge drop off in likelihood of drafting a top scoring fwd outside of the first round
Click to expand...

My understanding is that it's based entirely on a formula of historic value returned by the pick slot. The devil would be in what they consider "value" to be but even analytics forward front offices use their own version of these for deciding when to trade up, down, or even out of a pick entirely.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top