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Advanced Stats Thread

The reality is, though I guess some will never admit, that nothing in sports can be reduced down to one measurement. And its a pretty silly "advanced stats" movement by supposed "stats" people if that is what it breaks down to. Corsi is one of several things that can be measured in a hockey game. it doesn't measure defense. It doesn't measure offense. Technically it doesn't even really measure possession.

This obsession to focus on one set of data is really the opposite of advanced statistics. Its more of a regression.

The more data the better. And focusing on one unit of measurement gets you less of a complete picture, not more of one.
 
PlayerToBeNamedLater said:
No, I don't think McClement gets credit for the goalie making more saves when he's on the ice.
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But why does the goalie make more saves when McClement is on the ice than anyone else? Especially if McClement sucks defensively so much. Luck? Magic?

Or maybe McClement is really just good defensively and makes the goalies job easier than Tyler Bozak for example.

Nah its probably magic.
 
Randy used him well though. McClement isn't a defensive stopper and he wasn't used like a defensive stopper.

He was 11th in ES minutes -- used like a 4th liner. On the PK, where he's useful, he led the team in icetime.

He's a 4th liner who plays a key role on the PK. Not a Selke type player. Not an elite defensive player. A depth player.
 
leafman101 said:
But why does the goalie make more saves when McClement is on the ice than anyone else? Especially if McClement sucks defensively so much. Luck? Magic?

Or maybe McClement is really just good defensively and makes the goalies job easier than Tyler Bozak for example.

Nah its probably magic.
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Somehow, shots against are really high when the great defensive McClement is on the ice.

Now that's magic.
 
McClement is definitely a Selke calibre player though. He finished just outside the top five while playing in probably the most critical market in the NHL in terms of identifying and respecting defensive performance from its team's players.
 
JaysCyYoung said:
McClement is definitely a Selke calibre player though. He finished just outside the top five while playing in probably the most critical market in the NHL in terms of identifying and respecting defensive performance from its team's players.
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He got 4th line icetime at ES. So, Randy doesn't think so.

Neither does Nonis who brought in Bolland to play on the 3rd line.

Giving McClement the Selke would be like giving a bottom pair dman the Norris.
 
I have nothing against McClement. He's not paid a lot and he's a useful 4th liner, who plays well on the PK.

But this idea that he's a Selke level player is insane imo. He just doesn't impact the game on that level. He doesn't play enough to impact the game on that level.
 
PlayerToBeNamedLater said:
He got 4th line icetime at ES. So, Randy doesn't think so.

Neither does Nonis who brought in Bolland to play on the 3rd line.

Giving McClement the Selke would be like giving a bottom pair dman the Norris.
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Which is why Toews won. He logged quality defensive minutes while playing a tremendous amount of time on the ice.

But McClement is still an elite defensive forward.
 
yep, selke talk is insane.

McClement is solid in his role - good 4th liner, borderline 3rd liner, good PKer - and that's it.

If we were forced to use him as the fulltime 3rd line C, then he'd be a weakness, not a strength. Carlyle/Nonis traded a good chunk to get Bolland to take that role instead of McClem, though, so at least they recognize it.
 
JaysCyYoung said:
Which is why Toews won. He logged quality defensive minutes while playing a tremendous amount of time on the ice.

But McClement is still an elite defensive forward.
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An elite defensive forward plays a hell of a lot more than 4th line icetime. Unless Randy is a dummy. Who would use an elite defensive forward sparingly at ES?

If McClement was a Selke level talent, he'd be the Leafs 2nd or 3rd line C right now.
 
PlayerToBeNamedLater said:
Somehow, shots against are really high when the great defensive McClement is on the ice.

Now that's magic.
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And goals against are really low.

But we all know goals are the least important part of hockey. Corsi!

More importantly, I'll take you changing the topic and avoiding answering the question as an admittance that its not magic or luck, but rather McClement.
 
And for the record, Money Ball was about finding overlooked value in stats and exploiting it. Not reducing evaluation of data down to one subset as the end all and be all of the sport. Somehow that lost its way into the "stats revolution" in hockey.

In baseball, where the statisticians are far more advanced, they realized that such a data set does not exist.
 
leafman101 said:
And goals against are really low.

But we all know goals are the least important part of hockey. Corsi!

More importantly, I'll take you changing the topic and avoiding answering the question as an admittance that its not magic or luck, but rather McClement.
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Listen, if you want to give credit to McClement for the goalie stopping the puck, that's fine.

I don't agree.
 
PlayerToBeNamedLater said:
Listen, if you want to give credit to McClement for the goalie stopping the puck, that's fine.

I don't agree.
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Then why did the goalie stop the puck more when McClement is on the ice than other players?

And more importantly how can it have absolutely nothing to do with McClement, or the quality of chances faced?
 
McClement likely forces the opposition to make worse shots because of his checking ability and ability to cut off angles.
 
I agree that McClement is just a 4th liner though. He has absolutely no talent. He has no shot. He can't pass. All he can do with the puck is take it behind the net and tie it up along the boards. Which is pretty bad for a center.

He's a play killer. As noted by his awful corsi.
 
12/13, GA per 60, Leafs Leaders:
1. C. Orr: 1.07
2. L. Komarov: 1.92
3. F. McClaren: 1.96
4. M. Frattin: 2.30
5. C. MacArthur: 2.31
6. J. McClement: 2.44
 
leafman101 said:
Then why did the goalie stop the puck more when McClement is on the ice than other players?

And more importantly how can it have absolutely nothing to do with McClement, or the quality of chances faced?
Click to expand...

I just find it hard to believe that a player is so good defensively, yet somehow still allows a lot of shots.

It's like team a team that allows a lot of shots, but yet, is somehow good enough to limit quality chances. Good defensive limit the amount of shots, bad defensive teams don't.
 
I don't know. People widely regard Phoenix as a good defensive team, but they don't limit shots at all.

Its a bit of an over simplification. There are far more factors to good defense than shots.

In fact taking more shots is a specific strategy against good defenses.
 
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