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Advanced Stats Thread

hockeylover said:
So the only two guys that haven't actually already had 20+ goals in a season before are Bolland (19) and Kadri (18 in a shortened season)?

Not bad.
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Yeah, some guys will have up seasons, some guys will have down seasons, but we're do deep that it's really likely that enough guys will have up seasons to make us a very dangerous offence. Top 5 depending on how good our PP is.
 
TheMightyIgor said:
When was the last time a team had 9 forwards with 20+ goals? It's tough because there's only so much PP time to go around. And the Leafs don't typically use a forward on the point of the PP.
Click to expand...

It's next to impossible to have 9 goal 20 goal scorers because scoring isn't high enough in the league.

But it's good to gave guys capable of playing top 6 roles on the 3rd line in case there are injuries and they need to fill-in.

The Leafs 3rd line of Raymond-Bolland-Kulemin have all been top 6 players on good teams in the past.
 
James Mirtle ‏@mirtle 4m
BTW all those Leafs fans saying it's "negative" to write about PDO, regression etc.: It applies to more than one team. Ducks in similar boat

Maroon-Getzlaf-Perry
Silfverberg-MP22-Selanne
Winnik-Koivu-Cogliano
Beleskey-Bonino-Palmieri

Beauch-Fowler
Lovejoy-Fistric
Allen-Vatanen

That lineup aside from Perry/Getzlaf/Selanne kinda blows, IMO. I think it's a huge mistake to compare those lineups at least on paper.
 
it's too bad Mirtle blocked me last year.

of course, i would have been blocked again by now anyways.

let him keep digging his grave. it'll be all the more delicious next year when his credibility is shot.
 
Mirtle's argument that the Leafs miss the playoffs is based on these 3 things:

*Leafs SV% is unsustainable
*Leafs ES Shooting % is unstainable
*Leafs Fenwick is too poor to compete

There's two big problems with his conclusions. He's basing all this on a small sample size -- a 48 game season. He also didn't into account for the changes the Leafs made -- he's using the numbers last years team posted.

He does defend Phaneuf though. I will give him that.
 
actually, key difference in the first two there - their shooting percentage is unsustainable, agreed there. 11.5% doesn't happen over the long run. Arguing that that will come down is fine and sensible.

but his argument for save percentage is not that its unsustainable, because a .917sv% is clearly sustainable. Nothing unsustainable about that in the least. In this case he's simply arguing that the leafs goaltending WON'T sustain that save percentage, not that that kind of save percentage is unsustainable, because it's not. And I think you'll notice that he doesn't actually offer any arguments as to why the save percentage will drop, just that it will. And, of course, he makes no mention of bernier replacing scrivens, either.

He also refuses to discuss that actual personnel on the team - he won't discuss players like Lupul and Gardiner missing most of last year, and he won't discuss the fact that 1/3 of the roster has changed from last year.
 
The 11.5% is overall shooting % though. He's not even talking about that because the Leafs overall shooting % was elite (albeit lower) the year before as well.

He's talking specifically about ES shooting % which was really high and it will fall this year. But, if the Leafs increase their shot total or their shooting % increases on the PP, they can make up the difference in the drop.
 
well, you'll probably always see that kind of discrepancy in the smaller sample. probably more really low percentages, too.
 
Shooting percentage could easily be affected by rule changes - e.g., offensive zone faceoffs, smaller goalie pads, etc.. Y-O-Y measurement isn't going to be totally reliable.
 
Overall Shooting %:
(Listed -- Goals / Shots / %)




12/13:

1 Toronto Maple Leafs 145 1,264 11.47%
2 Pittsburgh Penguins 162 1,438 11.27%
3 Tampa Bay Lightning 147 1,323 11.11%
4 Washington Capitals 146 1,350 10.81%
5 Dallas Stars 128 1,261 10.15%
6 Chicago Blackhawks 149 1,494 9.97%
7 Anaheim Ducks 134 1,347 9.95%
8 Montreal Canadiens 146 1,468 9.95%
9 Calgary Flames 128 1,293 9.90%
10 Edmonton Oilers 123 1,285 9.57%

11/12:

1 Tampa Bay Lightning 232 2,227 10.42%
2 Nashville Predators 232 2,261 10.26%
3 Philadelphia Flyers 260 2,641 9.84%
4 Pittsburgh Penguins 273 2,779 9.82%
5 Boston Bruins 260 2,653 9.80%
6 Toronto Maple Leafs 227 2,322 9.78%
7 New Jersey Devils 216 2,253 9.59%
8 New York Rangers 222 2,338 9.50%
9 Washington Capitals 218 2,295 9.50%
10 Edmonton Oilers 207 2,186 9.47%

10/11:

1 Anaheim Ducks 235 2,334 10.07%
2 Vancouver Canucks 258 2,624 9.83%
3 Philadelphia Flyers 256 2,605 9.83%
4 Dallas Stars 222 2,269 9.78%
5 Calgary Flames 241 2,501 9.64%
6 Chicago Blackhawks 252 2,637 9.56%
7 St. Louis Blues 236 2,475 9.54%
8 Minnesota Wild 203 2,148 9.45%
9 New York Islanders 225 2,408 9.34%
10 Detroit Red Wings 257 2,757 9.32%
 
Is there a historical overall tracker (i.e., all teams/each year)? I'd bet there's some variability that's tied to rule changes. For instance, did shots go down as much as scoring after '95?
 
Good source. Yeah, looks like broader historical trends at play. Mirtle would do well to look back over the years. Not sure what he's using to benchmark things. Seems like a case of disbelief that the Leafs could be leading in an offensive category ... the number is not off the charts or anything.
 
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