Around the League 2019-2024 Edition

[Habsy]

I mean it’s not exactly hard to evaluate 1st overall picks. That’s the part of the draft that’s easy.

Also it’s probably never a good idea to take a winger first overall, unless they have legit generational skill. Pretty sure the only good winger 1st picks ever are Lafleur, Ovie and Kane.

much better off taking one of the centers with no generational talent available.

No argument that it is a big gamble but it also shows they're willing to swing for the fence on it.

What I'm saying is that you're off on your first overall comparisons. Slafkovsky is never going to be flashy, ever. He's going to be a bull and the wow moment will come when you see him do something physically that makes you go wow.

Slafkovsky is never going to be a Bedard or Hughes etc. Not his game at all.

I'm just laughing at the surety of a 70 game sample size while ignoring the international play (you know, against top prospects from around the world). This is where the numbers get so fudged to try to shoe-in to a narrative that they simply can't be determining factor especially when other big prospects didn't fire out of the gate immediately.

But yes, much easier to mock because he's a hab. Lulz.

 

[Habsy]

not going back to junior, not even close.

He didn't get that opportunity now did he? Plus you just moved the argument from pro-level to amateur to fit your argument.

 

[Wayward DP]

No argument that it is a big gamble but it also shows they're willing to swing for the fence on it.

What I'm saying is that you're off on your first overall comparisons. Slafkovsky is never going to be flashy, ever. He's going to be a bull and the wow moment will come when you see him do something physically that makes you go wow.

Slafkovsky is never going to be a Bedard or Hughes etc. Not his game at all.

I'm just laughing at the surety if a 70 game sample size while ignoring the international play (you know, against top prospects from around the world). This is where the numbers get so fudged to try to shoe-in to a narrative that they simply can't be determining factor especially when other big prospects didn't fire out of the gate immediately.

But yes, much easier to mock because he's a hab. Lulz.

if a Leaf prospect had such disappointing numbers I would be concerned, not optimistic. see, Knies, Matthew.

 

[Wayward DP]

He didn't get that opportunity now did he? Plus you just moved the argument from pro-level to amateur to fit your argument.

no, I am being consistent.

data > no data.

I'm just adding more data into the equation to refute your specific counterpoint.

 

[Habsy]

no, I am being consistent.

data > no data.

I'm just adding more data into the equation to refute your specific counterpoint.

More irrelevant data

70 games. 70.

And he's going to be what? 10g 30pts?

Fucking hilarious.

 

[Wayward DP]

More irrelevant data

70 games. 70.

And he's going to be what? 10g 30pts?

Fucking hilarious.

are you trying to miss the point here?

it's a limited sample. okay. but you want us to ignore it in our evaluations - why should we do that?

you can just admit his pro results have not been great but you hold out hope for reasons x, y, and q and then we can move on?

 

[Habsy]

When did I say ignore it?

I'll wait.


I said it's way too early to even get a take on him. Granted I follow more but I've never seen a prospect like this kid where you just don't know. Now that in itself is the salient point I believe in that a 1OA should be about as far from "just don't know" as you can get.

That point granted it gets back to ok, what do we have here? What we have is very intriguing but it's also a huge gamble. I'm not ready to accept a "bust" analysis after an extremely nominal sample size.

We saw flashes there and this kid is pushing 240 at 6'4 and his growth platlets haven't closed yet. Tage fucking Thompson anyone?

If he was 6' and 200 I would be far more concerned. I'm willing to give it a couple years for him to learn the NA game (the luxury many of the other picks had). Calling him a bust though? Holy fuck premature ejacuanalysis.

 

[Volcanologist]

lol growth platelets

for a 1st overall he sucks so far. if he was a Leaf I'd be terrified right now, and you and all the rest of the hab fans would be laughing about it.

doesn't mean he'll continue to suck but hab fans better see a yuge leap in play from this kid in 23/24

 

[Wayward DP]

When did I say ignore it?

I'll wait.


I said it's way too early to even get a take on him. Granted I follow more but I've never seen a prospect like this kid where you just don't know. Now that in itself is the salient point I believe in that a 1OA should be about as far from "just don't know" as you can get.

That point granted it gets back to ok, what do we have here? What we have is very intriguing but it's also a huge gamble. I'm not ready to accept a "bust" analysis after an extremely nominal sample size.

We saw flashes there and this kid is pushing 240 at 6'4 and his growth platlets haven't closed yet. Tage fucking Thompson anyone?

If he was 6' and 200 I would be far more concerned. I'm willing to give it a couple years for him to learn the NA game (the luxury many of the other picks had). Calling him a bust though? Holy fuck premature ejacuanalysis.

did anyone here actually call him a bust yet though? perhaps LOF but we all know his views re the Habs.

I think the consensus is just that we don't expect him to be be a star or anything close to worthy of 1st overall. not saying he's busted yet, just that that seems to be where he is heading. and it's okay if you disagree with that for non-data supported reasons

 

[Habsy]

Way too early to say either way and to not see that? Makes me question the analytical process.

Early indicators lean to not star (for this exercise I will call a star a ppg player). He won't be elite, there were no elite in that draft (although I would have personally gone Nemec if they really didn't like Wright) so we have to accept the ill timing of our suckage. The point is it's way too early for a kid that played on larger surfaces his whole life and has to relearn angles etc. This year will be important for his growth but I'm not expecting a ppg. Realistically I would expect that in 2-3 years. We'll see how he does.

 

[Habsy]

lol growth platelets

for a 1st overall he sucks so far. if he was a Leaf I'd be terrified right now, and you and all the rest of the hab fans would be laughing about it.

doesn't mean he'll continue to suck but hab fans better see a yuge leap in play from this kid in 23/24

So now bigger kids don't need more time. Got it.

Also why would I be scared shitless if he busts? I've been watching this drifting boat do fuck all for 30 years, pretty calloused by now. I would think most of you are as well.

 

[leafman101]

I don’t think he sucks, he just sucks for a 1st overall pick and will not be the best player picked in the top 4 of that draft.

he may end up better than Kotkaniemi though

 

[LeafOfFaith]

did anyone here actually call him a bust yet though? perhaps LOF but we all know his views re the Habs.

I think the consensus is just that we don't expect him to be be a star or anything close to worthy of 1st overall. not saying he's busted yet, just that that seems to be where he is heading. and it's okay if you disagree with that for non-data supported reasons

I didn’t call him a bust. But it’s sure not looking good to me.

This came up because I said I wouldn’t hesitate for a second to trade him plus the other two prospects Habsy named in exchange for PLD. It would’ve been the steal of the century for Montreal.

 

[MindzEye]

This is what you have which is better than many first overalls in his short tenure.

View attachment 17321
Absolutely horse shit analysis basing an opinion on short sample size or using his 16 and 17 year old stats against men.

But sure, I'll just rib you for a very long time if he pans out. Very long time. Massive cunts tend to have long memories.

17 & 18 yr old seasons against men, and we have numerous analogues for similar high picks at the same stage of their careers

#1 picks D+1 season (NHL only, Forwards only) since 2000

Crosby: 1.26
McJesus: 1.07
Kane: .88
Matthews: .84
RNH: .84
Kovy: .79
Mack: .75
Hall: .65
Tavares: .64
Hischier: .63
Stamkos: .58
Nash: .53
Lafreniere: .38
Hughes: .34
Slaf: .26

Distant last isn't looking great so far.

Here's how he compares in his D+0 liiga season vs every 1st rounder picked out of liiga recently in their D+0

Barkov: .91
Laine: .72
Lundell: .64
Kemell: .59
Puljujarvi: .56
Kotkaniemi: .51
Raantanen: .50
Teravainen: .45
Heinola: .41
Kupari: .36
Slafkovsky: .33
Kapanen: .30
Heiskeinen: .27
Lambert: .20
Vaakanainen: .15

Not looking great their either.

So yes, 2 seasons of pro experience and compared to his contemporaries, it's not looking great. His D+1 looks a lot like a continuation of his underwhelming Liiga production.

 

[Habsy]

I don’t think he sucks, he just sucks for a 1st overall pick and will not be the best player picked in the top 4 of that draft.

he may end up better than Kotkaniemi though

Who do you peg as having the better career this early on out of curiosity?

 

[MindzEye]

lol growth platelets

for a 1st overall he sucks so far. if he was a Leaf I'd be terrified right now, and you and all the rest of the hab fans would be laughing about it.

doesn't mean he'll continue to suck but hab fans better see a yuge leap in play from this kid in 23/24

Using someone with a mid career breakout as the best case scenario for your 1st overall pick should terrify him. It all but guarantees that if the kid breaks out into a star level performer, it won't be for the Habs.

 

[MindzEye]

Who do you peg as having the better career this early on out of curiosity?

Nemec & Jiricek both had outstanding 18 yr old seasons in the AHL, and Cooley had a pretty crazy D+1 season by NCAA standards. I'd bank on all 3 being better than Slaf shortly.

 

[leafman101]

 

[leafman101]

Predraft I had it

1. Nemec
2. Cooley
3. Wright

and IMO the D +1 year only solidifies that.

Nemec and Cooley specifically look like studs, and Wright like a legit good 2c/bottom end 1c.

 

[Habsy]

Nemec & Jiricek both had outstanding 18 yr old seasons in the AHL, and Cooley had a pretty crazy D+1 season by NCAA standards. I'd bank on all 3 being better than Slaf shortly.

Careers.

Not out of gate.

As we know there's been several players that pulled the turtle v hare.

I also don't agree with winger at 1OA unless it's Bedard type. I don't know how you measure against D in short term. You just can't.

It really was the most underscouted draft in a very long time.