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Around the League 2019-2024 Edition

In saying that, I laugh when people assume that because they've had a huge PDO early on in the season, that must mean they'll be sub 100 for the rest. Nah, they're most likely to hover around 100 no matter how they performed early in the season; what has already happened has no impact on future events.
 
Yup, regression doesn't mean that your performance becomes the inverse of the outlier and even out the broader sample. It means that you're likely to regress to normal going forward and the outlier is what it is.
 
Preston said:
In saying that, I laugh when people assume that because they've had a huge PDO early on in the season, that must mean they'll be sub 100 for the rest. Nah, they're most likely to hover around 100 no matter how they performed early in the season; what has already happened has no impact on future events.
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I know that this is the expected odds-based theory but i'm not 100% convinced it's true.

It would be true of random rolls of the dice, sure. But we're talking about humans and groups of humans whose hotness and coldness aren't exactly random, and we know that over a full sports season they're usually gonna have both kinds in fairly equal measure.

I understand that banked hot streaks are banked and all, but if you go into a sports season expecting a likely balance of human-based inevitable hot and cold streaks, then the cold streak seems unsurprising.
 
maybe but I haven't seen evidence of that and it may be pretty easy to figure out. I think if you look at any random 20 game stretch, if they were significantly below 100 PDO in the 20 games prior to that, are they more likely to be significantly above 100 PDO than they are to hover around 100? I'm not counting it out, but I have a hard time wrapping my mind around that.
 
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View: https://twitter.com/MarkLazerus/status/1727734480494870548?t=IUHALYx8QnlSP-nEM22adg&s=19
 
Preston said:
maybe but I haven't seen evidence of that and it may be pretty easy to figure out. I think if you look at any random 20 game stretch, if they were significantly below 100 PDO in the 20 games prior to that, are they more likely to be significantly above 100 PDO than they are to hover around 100? I'm not counting it out, but I have a hard time wrapping my mind around that.
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I look at it a bit differently.

I would guess that most ~100pdo seasons are made up of balancing hot and cold pdo streaks.

So the fact that one comes at the very start of the year doesn't mean that they won't balance out in the end anyways.

Though having one at the start of the year obviously gives you better odds of having a "hot" pdo season overall.
 
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