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Around the League 2019-2026 Edition

LeafGm said:
Also, now that I think about this, the Koivunen deal isn’t a completely new idea from Dubas.

He definitely tried to do a “max term to keep down the AAV” extension for Andreas Johnsson, and I think Kasperi Kapanen as well, when both of them were coming off their rookie seasons. Luckily for the Leafs and unluckily for them, both of those guys turned that offer down and opted for shorter-term/higher AAV extensions.

But the fact that Johnsson ended up not being an NHL-calibre player at all and Kapanen ended up being a journeyman depth piece, in spite of each having 20+ goal/40+ point rookie seasons shows what a massive gamble this Koivunen contract is.
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Yup. The difference with this is that it's probably an ok-ish deal if he's an nhler at all throughout the entirety of the contract. 4m this year is already cheap (Colton Sissons money to some GMs!), by year 4 and beyond it's gonna be good 4th liner money, and this contract would still be kinda shit but not a catastrophe necessarily if that's all he is.

But yeah it's very possible that he isn't an nhler at all, and in that case it'll look hilarious that he galaxy brained this. How fun.
 
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LeafGm said:
Also, now that I think about this, the Koivunen deal isn’t a completely new idea from Dubas.

He definitely tried to do a “max term to keep down the AAV” extension for Andreas Johnsson, and I think Kasperi Kapanen as well, when both of them were coming off their rookie seasons. Luckily for the Leafs and unluckily for them, both of those guys turned that offer down and opted for shorter-term/higher AAV extensions.

But the fact that Johnsson ended up not being an NHL-calibre player at all and Kapanen ended up being a journeyman depth piece, in spite of each having 20+ goal/40+ point rookie seasons shows what a massive gamble this Koivunen contract is.
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That's part of what makes the risk for fringy talent even worse. Johnsson was a good player, but small and not fast. He was effective until he got conkied and then either couldn't, or didn't want to play the game that made him temporarily effective (he was good around the net for a little guy).

So yeah, when I look at this I wonder what the risk is on not signing this guy long term. If he doesn't become a legitimately good top 6 forward, he's replaceable for cheap...So while an argument can be made if he turns into a Jarnkrokesque 3rd line cardio merchant that he's *worth* 4 million a year, that can be true while at the same time realizing that you can replace that guy for less money, or at the least the same money and less term every year. Opportunity cost is a thing, and I don't see it taken into account very often in NHL decisions.

So basically, if this guy doesn't become better than that by a fair bit, this deal is all risk on the team side.
 
If he's bad, the idea mentioned earlier that anyone would touch the contract in trade is insane. Nobody even wanted Jarn's expiring contract. We couldn't get rid of Maccelli at that price with no term. If he stinks in his first season, who is going to sign up for 7 more? He will retire a Pen one way or the other most likely.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
If he's bad, the idea mentioned earlier that anyone would touch the contract in trade is insane. Nobody even wanted Jarn's expiring contract. We couldn't get rid of Maccelli at that price with no term. If he stinks in his first season, who is going to sign up for 7 more? He will retire a Pen one way or the other most likely.
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if Nurse moved with no retention this is not as bad
 
Preston said:

View: https://x.com/i/status/2085424775397023756
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"We don’t think of it as paying for potential, we view it as placing bets on what we believe the player is going to produce moving ahead."



There is no functional difference between those two things, ya fake nerd dummy.

“What we believe the player is going to produce moving ahead” is almost a perfect definition of the word “potential”, in a hockey player context. You fuckin’ dummy, Kyle.
 
I read it as, "we don't think he really needs to improve to justify the contract. He got unlucky last year and this is a bet that he'll be a competent middle sixer and worth 4m immediately."
 
axlsalinger said:

View: https://x.com/walsha/status/2085536638990704863?s=20
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here-we-go-again.gif
 
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