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Core 4 No More: The Motherfucking Off-Season Thread

Wayward DP said:
looks like we have our starting top-9 pairings:
Matty-Mucho
Domi-SEX
Patches-Droid
Click to expand...
and then if we assume that Knies, Robby, and Jarnkrok are guaranteed spots, that leaves a big ole battle for the final few positions.

in theory, you'd think McMann would be a shoe-in. so two spots plus extras for all of:
Kampf
Reaves
Grebenkin
Cowan
Holmberg
anyone else of interest here?
 
By all the line setups so far it sure seems to me that Kampf is on the outside looking in but i still can't quite believe it.

It would be great if that McMann-Holmberg-Robertson line could have an all around dominant game tonight.
 

Tiers (players listed alphabetically)

1A: McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews
1B: Barkov, Draisaitl, Kucherov, Makar
1C: Fox, Q.Hughes, J.Hughes, Pastrnak, M.Tkachuk

1 = Top-12 Players

2A: Crosby, Josi, Kaprizov, Panarin, Shesterkin
2B: Aho, Eichel, Heiskanen, Hellebuyck, Marner, E.Pettersson, Point, Rantanen
2C: Bouchard, Hischier, McAvoy, W.Nylander, J.Robertson, Saros, Sorokin

2 = Top-32 Players

3A: Bedard, Dahlin, Forsberg, Guentzel, Hedman, Reinhart, Vasilveskiy
3B: Bratt, Demko, Dobson, Forsling, Hintz, Hyman, Morrissey, Slavin, Swayman, R,Thomas, B.Tkachuk
3C: Barzal, Boldy, Ekholm, Keller, Larkin, J.Miller, Stutzle, Theodore, T.Thompson, D.Toews, Weegar

3 = Top-61 Players

4A: Ek, Hagel, D.Hamilton, W.Johnston, E.Karlsson, Oettinger, Stone, N.Suzuki, Svechnikov, Verhaeghe, Werenski
4B: Buchnevich, Faber, Hanifin, Jarvis, Konecny, Marchand, Pietrangelo, Sanderson, Spurgeon, Trocheck, Ullmark, Zibanejad
4C: Burns, Connor, Fiala, Harley, Horvat, Kopitar, Markstrom, Meier, Raymond, Rielly, Seider, Tavares

4 = Top-96 Players

5A: Bobrovsky, Brodin, Carlson, Ehlers, Jones, Kadri, Kreider, Kyrou, H.Lindholm, B.Nelson, Nugent-Hopkins, R.O'Reilly, Power, Sergachev, Stamkos, T.Terry
5B: Boeser, Caufield, Debrincat, Ekblad, Kempe, Letang, Malkin, Marchessault, McCann, McDonagh, Montour, Rust, Scheifele, Tuch
5C: R.Andersson, Beniers, J.Benn, Byfield, Chabot, Cozens, Hertl, Hronek, P.Kane, Lafreniere, Lehkonen, E.Lindholm, K.Miller, Ovechkin, Pesce, M.Roy, Skinner, Skjei, Slafkovsky, Strome, C.Tanev, Tippett

5 = Top-148 Players


Marner dropped from 2A to 2B.
Nylander bumped up from 3A to 2C.
Rielly down two tiers from 4A to 4C.
Tavares down two tiers from 4A to 4C.

Not sure where Tanev was last year, but unsurprisingly grouped with all the other top UFA free agent D this year - Montour at 5B, but all of Pesce, Roy, Skjei with Tanev at 5C.

Still would have liked to have added 2 of those guys, not just one, though.


The strength of the team is still in having 3 top-30 players. Only a handful of teams can match that.

But it's starting to hurt that the next tier of impact talent has fallen from borderline top-60 to more in the Top-100 to Top-150 range.


Also some names that still sting on this list...

Hyman 3B
Verhaeghe 4A
Kadri 5A
O'Reilly 5A
McCann 5B
 
I think our scoring-depth is most telling when you look at what this team regularly trots out as a second powerplay. Yes PP1 is loaded, but if it goes cold like it did at the end of last season - it's difficult to win.
 
BG said:
I think our scoring-depth is most telling when you look at what this team regularly trots out as a second powerplay. Yes PP1 is loaded, but if it goes cold like it did at the end of last season - it's difficult to win.
Click to expand...

My biggest issue is that if Matthews-Marner-Nylander aren't on a 5v5 line, it just doesn't produce anything (aside from the time Sheldon put Robbie and Domi together as a 3rd line he hated deeply). Oh, Jarnkrok scored 20 a few years ago so maybe he's a good depth producer? Nah, he's shit but got to play a big chunk of the season with Matthews. Knies? Did very little away from the Matthews line. Tavares immediately looks like a 3C when he doesn't have Willy or Marner with him, etc, etc. As mentioned, the two guys who did produce weren't trusted to be out there without the mitten strings on.

If there was a single thing that needs to change for this core to win, that's the thing. Offence is as much a team responsibility as defence is. The idea that we could get away with playing a bunch of no offence shitty plugs because Austin-Willy-Mitch are going to save us when we need goals dies a predictable and painful death in the playoffs.
 
By last year's GSVA

Clearcut Top-3

33: McDavid
32: MacKinnon
31: Matthews
30:
29:
28:

Top-10

27: Kucherov, Bouchard
26: Q.Hughes
25: Josi
24: Reinhart, Fox, Kaprizov

Top-29

23: Hyman
22: Barkov, Pastrnak, Panarin, Morrissey
21: Guentzel, Ekholm
20: Forsling, Draisaitl
19: Forsberg, Heiskanen, J.Miller
18: Aho, Dobson, Rantanen, Robertson, E.Pettersson
17: M.Tkachuk, Crosby, Jarvis, Eichel, Doughty
16: B.Tkachuk, Bratt, J.Hughes, Boldy, Ek, Harley, Theodore

Top-66

15: Marner, Slavin, Burns, Hintz, Makar, McDonagh, W.Karlsson, Hanifin, Dunn
14: Nylander, Tavares, Larkin, McAvoy, Hischier, Fiala
13: Verhaeghe, Point, Suzuki, Hedman, Ekblad, Trocheck, Kreider, Thomas, Lehkonen, Brodin
12: Dahlin, Konecny, Rust, E.Karlsson, Werenski, Johnston, Demelo, Kadri, Boeser, T.Moore, M.Roy

Top-93

11: Sanderson, Barzal, Skjei, Kyrou, Toews, Kopitar, Kempe
10: Caufield, P.Kane, Rielly, Horvat, Strome, Zibanejad, O'Reilly, Zuccarello, Nichushkin, Ehlers, Garland, RNH, Stone, Hronek
9: Debrincat, Marchand, Pavelski, Byfield, Marchessault, Mantha

Top-153

8: Tanev, Stutzle, Raymond, Thompson, Montour, H.Lindholm, Malkin, Nelson, Svechnikov, Chatfield, M.Pettersson, Carlson, Orlov, Nyquist, Hertl, McMann, Duchene, Drouin, Buchnevich, Keller, Walker, Valimaki, Spurgeon, Coleman, Weegar,
7: McCabe, Liljegren, Stamkos, Pinto, Tippett, McLeod, Letang, Seeler, Vilardi, Lindell, Eberle, Danault, Bjorkstrand
6: M.Anderson, Korczak, Nurse, Gudas, Toffoli, Mittelstadt, Benn, Maccelli, Seguin, Marchment, Scheifele, Vlasic, Teravainen, Frost, Foerster, Palmieri, Romanov, L.Hughes, Peterka, Timmins, Maatta, Zub


Obviously i wouldn't include Liljegren and Timmins in a real top-150 based on their sheltered roles (and there are a bunch of other names on this list in similar sheltered situations who would also come off), but I do think McCabe deserves to be on the tier list based on his performance especially given he's used in as tough usage as most any guy here.
 
BG said:
I think our scoring-depth is most telling when you look at what this team regularly trots out as a second powerplay. Yes PP1 is loaded, but if it goes cold like it did at the end of last season - it's difficult to win.
Click to expand...

I think Brad saw that. Pacioretty and OEL are career PP1 guys who are still bona fide productive PP players. Throw in Domi/Knies/Robertson and there's no reason that PP2 shouldn't produce.

Average of p1/60 and p/60 at 5v4 last year:

Marner 6.32
Pacioretty 5.85
Nylander 5.84
Matthew 5.58
Rielly 4.62
Tavares 4.02
Liljegren 3.95
Robertson 3.32
OEL 3.11
McCabe 2.99
Timmins 2.97
Bertuzzi 2.90
McMann 2.08
Klingberg 1.95
Knies 1.78
Jarnkrok 0.95
Domi 0.91


OEL's number doesn't seem spectacular there but he was the most productive PP dman on florida last year:

OEL 3.11
Forsling 2.67
Montour 2.56
Ekblad 2.49
Reilly 2.07

and in the playoffs

OEL 3.56
Montour 0.96
 
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