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For Borje - The Toronto Maple Leafs 2023 Stanley Cup Champions Thread

zeke said:
I hope Dom gives us updated Net Rating numbers for the 2nd round (especially some kind of grade for Knies) but I don't know that he will.

Since I think structurally the Leafs and Panthers are very similar, here's how the cumulative Net Ratings look like for each segment of the team:

Top-6: TOR 71 --- FLA 62
Bot-6: TOR -25 --- FLA -37

Top-3: TOR 18 --- FLA 22
Bot-3: TOR 4 --- FLA -4

Goalie: TOR 7 --- FLA 8

and the one place that the panthers have an advantge (Top-3 defense), is maybe the area that looked much better for Toronto in round 1 than coming in, thanks to the Leafs adding a super elite #1 RHD at the deadline.
Click to expand...
Fyp
 
Refresher - regular saason xG% (min 150min)

(Knies 66.3) - only 36min
1. O'Reilly 60.2
2. Acciari 59.0
(Engvall 57.6)
3. Matthews 56.9
4. Nylander 55.8
5. Marner 55.4
6. Bunting 55.1
7. Tavares 54.6
8. Kerfoot 54.3
(Malgin 53.7)
9. Jarnkrok 52.5
10. ZAR 50.6
(Holmberg 50.2)
11. Kampf 50.1
12. Lafferty 43.9

Playoffs

1. Marner 62.8
2. Matthews 59.0
3. Bunting 57.5
4. Knies 57.2
5. Jarnkrok 55.7
6. Tavares 49.6
7. Nylander 49.1
8. Acciari 46.0
9. O'Reilly 44.1
10. Lafferty 37.0
11. ZAR 36.5
12. Kerfoot 35.9
13. Kampf 30.2

Lafferty always the obvious forward to drop during the regular season. A bit muddier in the playoffs so far but given that Lafferty hasn't shown anything at any point, he's still the obvious drop


1. Brodie 57.4
(Sandin 57.1)
2. Giordano 56.0
3. McCabe 55.7
(Timmins 55.7)
4. Liljegren 54.0
5. Holl 53.0
6. Schenn 52.3
7. Rielly 51.9
(Gustafsson 49.7) - only 120min
(Benn 48.9)

Playoffs

1. Schenn 64.5
2. Rielly 57.7
3. Brodie 54.0
(Gustafsson 44.4)
4. McCabe 43.0
(Liljegren 40.9)
5. Giordano 39.3
6. Holl 33.6


Not obvious who to drop from the regular season, but the playoffs performances have made it a pretty easy decision.
 
how do you explain the discrepancy in brodies and McCabe xgf, given that they played nearly every shift together.
 
Also the d net rating can probably be attributed to mo’s bad season and no tours career season.

imo those guys are probably a wash. Ekblad conceivably should give the panthers an edge though the eye test hasn’t been very good.
 
mbow30 said:
how do you explain the discrepancy in brodies and McCabe xgf, given that they played nearly every shift together.
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I bet Mo got some bonus shifts with TJ, but that's pure speculation.

I also saw Jake out with Timmy a couple times last game.

dunno that either fully explains it though without actually diving into the shift charts
 
Wayward DP said:
I bet Mo got some bonus shifts with TJ, but that's pure speculation.

I also saw Jake out with Timmy a couple times last game.

dunno that either fully explains it though without actually diving into the shift charts
Click to expand...
This would make sense and make McCabe's overall minutes much more difficult than Brodie's assuming it's a result of some extra Mo o-zone shifts. But then we'd see that in the ZS% between McCabe and Brodie.. Is there a big difference?
 
mbow30 said:
how do you explain the discrepancy in brodies and McCabe xgf, given that they played nearly every shift together.
Click to expand...

together they've held their own but only just. with other partners, Brodie has been awesome and McCabe not so good.

McCabe Brodie: 99min, 3.18xgf, 3.39xga, 48.4xg%

McCabe Rielly: 11min, 0.17xgf, 0.41xga, 29.3xg%
McCabe Schenn: 8min, 0.36xgf, 0.13xga, 73.5xg%
McCabe Gio: 4min, 0.00xgf, 1.03xga, 00.0xg%
McCabe Holl: 3min, 0.02xgf, 0.02xga, 50.0xg%
McCabe Lilly: 1min, 0.00xgf, 0.00xga, 50.0xg%

McCabe no Brodie: 27min, 0.55xgf, 1.59xga, 25.7xg%

though to be fair, it seems to be almost all due to 4 disastrous minutes with Gio....which I would guess are them out at the end of PKs as the 2nd PK pairing trapped in their zone before the puck is cleared.


Brodie Rielly: 8min, 0.56xgf, 0.36xga, 60.9xg%
Brodie Holl: 6min, 0.00xgf, 0.16xga, 00.0xg%
Brodie Gio: 5min, 0.76xgf, 0.17xga, 81.7xg%
Brodie Schenn: 3min, 0.31xgf, 0.03xga, 91.2xg%
Brodie Lilly: 1min, 0.04xgf, 0.00xga, 100.0xg%

Brodie no McCabe: 23min, 1.67xgf, 0.72xga, 69.9xg%


these could be all fluke, but it is notable that he's so good with most all of them.

and I bet those minutes with Holl, his only negative there, are also probably them being caught out at the end of PKs before clearing the puck out.
 
mbow30 said:
Also the d net rating can probably be attributed to mo’s bad season and no tours career season.
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yeah it is. Mo's at 7 and Montour at 11, but that's with mo being really shitty all year, and not the awesome version we're getting now. But that gap of 4 between them is the difference.

mbow30 said:
imo those guys are probably a wash. Ekblad conceivably should give the panthers an edge though the eye test hasn’t been very good.
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Forsling and Ekblad are both much better offensively than McCabe and Brodie, but Mccabe and Brodie have them beat by just as much defensively. And I think the eye test of panthers fans would agree with the nerdies on that one, as both Ekblad and Forsling get burnt regularly.
 
Round 1 Recap

Evolving-Hockey's xGF% at Even Strength

Game 1: TOR 57.8%
Game 2: TOR 64.5%
Game 3: TOR 33.0%
Game 4: TOR 45.3%
Game 5: TOR 43.1%
Game 6: TOR 49.1%

not great.
 
zeke said:
Round 1 Recap

Evolving-Hockey's xGF% at Even Strength

Game 1: TOR 57.8%
Game 2: TOR 64.5%
Game 3: TOR 33.0%
Game 4: TOR 45.3%
Game 5: TOR 43.1%
Game 6: TOR 49.1%

not great.
Click to expand...
nope. pretty ugly, in fact. especially when you consider the team's talent level and regular season performance.
 
zeke said:
Round 1 Recap

Evolving-Hockey's xGF% at Even Strength

Game 1: TOR 57.8%
Game 2: TOR 64.5%
Game 3: TOR 33.0%
Game 4: TOR 45.3%
Game 5: TOR 43.1%
Game 6: TOR 49.1%

not great.
Click to expand...

Which lines underperformed?
 
Game 6 on the road with their optimal lineup and the 3 worst players in the series out of the lineup was fairly encouraging. Hardly a game to get horny over but much better than anything we saw from them since game 2.

Think it was mostly ROR that dragged things down a bit up front outside of ZARfferty and Kampf. He wasn't great despite some heroics.
 
mapleleafshotstove.com

The Florida Panthers are not to be underestimated, but there are clear areas to exploit for the Maple Leafs

The second-round matchup is set. In a bit of a shocker, the Toronto Maple Leafs have retained home-ice advantage and will play the Florida Panthers. A lot of people are going to look at the 43-point difference between the Panthers and Bruins and be happy to see who the Leafs are playing, but it...
mapleleafshotstove.com mapleleafshotstove.com

"Against Tampa Bay, the Leafs had a lot of trouble with their forecheck, so this is something to focus on. Tampa’s speed was a problem, and I would argue the Panthers are even faster than the Lightning. Can the Leafs break out effectively and avoid costly mistakes, unlike the Bruins?"

Thoughts?
 
it wasn’t just the forecheck, it was the NZ defense. Once the Leafs got past the forecheck there were 3 guys back forcing them to dump and chase and preventing the Leafs from gaining the zone with possession and creating zone time.

the forecheck was only half the equation. Florida is good, but not Tampa.

The Leafs should be able to create more ozone time against the Panthers.
 
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