We are definitely pretty terrible at it tho.
GF%/xG% by total 3v3 ice time the last 3 seasons:
Auston: 41%/54%
Rielly: 29%/41%
Willy: 60%/52%
Mitch: 42%/48%
Brodie: 60%/60%
Tavares: 38%/45%
Everyone else currently on the roster has played such a small amount of total 3v3 ice it's not worth including GF% imo
xG%
Lilly: 84%
McCabe: 35%
Kampf: 0% (lol)
Jarnkrok: 37%
Some takeaways:
- It's easy to look at Auston and say he's been unlucky but having seen pretty much every 3v3 shift he's ever taken I see a commonality in how it all breaks down. Auston-Mitch get a 2 on 1. The entire universe knows Auston is going to shoot, and based on how the defenders usually cover it, I think the plan is to let him. You've still got a ~80% chance of getting a save there, even on Auston where as the pass across is almost the inverse, it's a tap in if it's on the stick. Mitch sells the fuck out as the "decoy" and ends up deep for some reason...every fucking time, and if Auston doesn't score (usually), they're chasing the play the other way with Rielly as the defender, which is setting up Morgan Rielly to fucking fail, it's easily the thing he's worst at. Goal. Game over. I would really like to see Auston-Willy as the main duo, with the plan being putting the puck on Willy's stick immediately in that 2-1 transition when we get it. Willy is pretty much equal parts threat to shoot if it's there or pass across for an Auston tap in. Way harder to defend. But put Brodie with them, not Rielly. They don't need Rielly and Brodie is much better at covering for them if they sell out for the goal opportunity.
- We should probably cycle through running mates for Mitch on the 2nd pairing. Jarnkrok, Robertson, Knies, Domi whoever that can skate. Mitch is better Mitch when he's not deferring to Auston imo and is himself looking to score. Give this group Lilly, who does a bit of everything well.
- Mo shouldn't see much 3v3 ice, neither should Tavares unless it's defensive zone type work with someone like Jarnkrok as an emergency duo.
