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GDT #43: 2025/1/9 - Up a Notch

zeke

zeke

Well-known member
So we finally might have a team that knows how to take care of business against weaker teams. maybe. At least they have recently. Though they haven't looked great doing it.

But now after winning 5 against struggling teams, they've got a 4gm set against very good teams - CAR, VAN, DAL, NJD. All good teams in the standings and in the underlying numbers. They go on a bit of a losing streak here and they'll drop right back down into the muddle of lower seeded playoffs teams.

Playing the level they have over the last while probably won't be good enough to win these games, so they better be able to raise it up a notch.

The Hurricanes aren't as good a team as they've been recently but they're still a very good team that plays good nerdy hockey . We'll see how our "system" deals with them.

I'm assuming Reaves isn't playing in this one.


Lines:


1736441228587.png​
 
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looks like the dpairings have changed:


View: https://x.com/joshuakloke/status/1877393909631869105



on the season:

Rielly-Tanev 113min, 59.1xgf%, 49.3gf%
OEL-Myers 10min, 21.9xgf%, 50.0gf%
Benoit-Timmins 312min, 38.8xgf%, 50.1gf%


Actually looking forward to see how the Mo-Tanev pairing works as a top pair again.

I'm sure OEL-Myers will be ok.

but Benoit-Timmins has a lot of bad minutes now. But i'm not sure that's Timmins' fault. Benoit pairings have been easily the worst no matter who he's with. Some of that is usage but i don't know how much.

Benoit has been so bad that all 6 other regular dman have positive xgf relative to team, with him the only one balancing the books on the negative end (along with 2gms of Hak).

xgfrel

Timmins +3.0
Rielly +2.5
McCabe +2.5
Tanev +1.6
Myers +0.6
OEL +0.3

Benoit -9.6
Hakanpaa -12.9
 
oh hey Patches riding pine today. but not for Reaves - for Holmberg.

i was actually thinking about this because patches' play has dipped lately. i was wondering whether coach would actually play Robertson ahead of Patches and he did. good stuff.
 
Will be interesting to see Rielly-Tanev get another shot, since those two were expecting to play together when Tanev came here.

I also almost forgot Holmberg existed. I guess he’s still a thing for Berube and he doesn’t want him to get too rusty.
 
I think Holmberg was sick and only returned to practice before last game.

but i wouldn't be surprised if he's generally the odd man out along with reaves.
 
Not too interested in Rielly-Taney as their ideal usage is the exact opposite.

They should be trying to get the best C and D possible at the deadline, because they are an injury away from Reilly/OEL getting tough minutes.
 
Well I mean that would depend on your personnel I would think.

For the Leafs you want Taney playing against the other teams best playes and you don’t want Reilly doing that.
 
plenty of offensive dmen play against other teams top lines tho. might actually be refreshing not to just try and play negative hockey against other teams top lines.

might not work but hell Mo dominates in the playoffs against pretty much anyone even when paired with booshes and schenns.
 
zeke said:
oh hey Patches riding pine today. but not for Reaves - for Holmberg.

i was actually thinking about this because patches' play has dipped lately. i was wondering whether coach would actually play Robertson ahead of Patches and he did. good stuff.
Click to expand...
yah Patches deserves to sit.

but Reavo... he deserves to sit forever
 
zeke said:
plenty of offensive dmen play against other teams top lines tho. might actually be refreshing not to just try and play negative hockey against other teams top lines.

might not work but hell Mo dominates in the playoffs against pretty much anyone even when paired with booshes and schenns.
Click to expand...
playoff Mo =/= regular season Mo
 
They've actually sheltered the hell out of Mo this year

QOC Off (min 15 mins 5v5)
1. Zach Jones - 15.19, 0.06
2. Zach Whitecloud - 15.69, 0.56
3. TJ Brodie - 15.09, 0.59
4 Joel Edmundson, 17.41, 0.66
5. Nicholas Hague, 15.08, 0.68
6. Brayden Schnieder - 15,49, 0.74
7. Scott Mayfield - 15.99, 0.77
8. Declan Chisolm - 16.03, 0.82
9. Isiah George - 15.99, 0.85
10. Wortherspoon - 15.87, 0.88
11. Rielly - 17.61 mins, 0.96

The only other D that plays more than 17 minutes and has < 1 QOC Off is Luke Hughes.
 
leafman101 said:
They've actually sheltered the hell out of Mo this year

QOC Off (min 15 mins 5v5)
1. Zach Jones - 15.19, 0.06
2. Zach Whitecloud - 15.69, 0.56
3. TJ Brodie - 15.09, 0.59
4 Joel Edmundson, 17.41, 0.66
5. Nicholas Hague, 15.08, 0.68
6. Brayden Schnieder - 15,49, 0.74
7. Scott Mayfield - 15.99, 0.77
8. Declan Chisolm - 16.03, 0.82
9. Isiah George - 15.99, 0.85
10. Wortherspoon - 15.87, 0.88
11. Rielly - 17.61 mins, 0.96

The only other D that plays more than 17 minutes and has < 1 QOC Off is Luke Hughes.
Click to expand...

a product of both McCabe-Tanev being used (rightly) as a top shutdown pair, but also a product of using the Benoit 3rd pairing in much tougher usage than most any team uses their bottom pairing in.

Leafs in general use their 4th line and bottom pairing in much tougher usage than pretty much any other team. But that was true under Keefe too.
 
DZS% - OZS% compared to FLA and EDM in the playoffs last year

Matthews -3.9 --- Barkov +1.2 --- McDavid -11.1
Marner -0.9 --- Reinhart +3.5 --- Draisaitl -1.6
Nylander -6.3 --- Tkachuk -7.3 --- Hyman -12.2

Tavares +0.5 --- Bennett -8.5 --- RNH -5.2
Knies -2.4 --- Verhaeghe -3.5 --- Kane -2.6
McMann -1.1 --- Rodrigues -7.3 --- Holloway -4.3

Domi -2.9 --- Lundell -5.9 --- Henrique +2.3
Pacioretty -2.1 --- Luostarinen -8.5 --- McLeod -1.4
Robertson -4.8 --- Tarasenko -3.8 --- Foegele -5.3

Kampf +8.3 --- Stenlund -8.6 --- Janmark +1.1
Lorentz +8.4 --- Lorentz -8.8 --- Perry -3.6
Dewar +8.2 --- Cousins -10.9 --- Brown +2.9


McCabe +5.5 --- Forsling +3.6 --- Ekholm -8.6
Rielly -7.2 --- Montour -5.4 --- Bouchard -7.7

Tanev +9.9 --- Ekblad +3.7 --- Nurse +3.8
OEL -1.5 --- Mikkola -4.7 --- Ceci +1.7

Benoit +5.7 --- OEL -7.5 --- Kulak +2.6
Timmins +0.8 --- Kulkov -5.7 --- Broberg -1.6



​

Nobody uses their 4th line like we do tbh. It's usually a sheltered line. And very few bottom pair dmen get as tough usage as Benoit gets.
 
zeke said:
DZS% - OZS% compared to FLA and EDM in the playoffs last year

Matthews -3.9 --- Barkov +1.2 --- McDavid -11.1
Marner -0.9 --- Reinhart +3.5 --- Draisaitl -1.6
Nylander -6.3 --- Tkachuk -7.3 --- Hyman -12.2

Tavares +0.5 --- Bennett -8.5 --- RNH -5.2
Knies -2.4 --- Verhaeghe -3.5 --- Kane -2.6
McMann -1.1 --- Rodrigues -7.3 --- Holloway -4.3

Domi -2.9 --- Lundell -5.9 --- Henrique +2.3
Pacioretty -2.1 --- Luostarinen -8.5 --- McLeod -1.4
Robertson -4.8 --- Tarasenko -3.8 --- Foegele -5.3

Kampf +8.3 --- Stenlund -8.6 --- Janmark +1.1
Lorentz +8.4 --- Lorentz -8.8 --- Perry -3.6
Dewar +8.2 --- Cousins -10.9 --- Brown +2.9


McCabe +5.5 --- Forsling +3.6 --- Ekholm -8.6
Rielly -7.2 --- Montour -5.4 --- Bouchard -7.7

Tanev +9.9 --- Ekblad +3.7 --- Nurse +3.8
OEL -1.5 --- Mikkola -4.7 --- Ceci +1.7

Benoit +5.7 --- OEL -7.5 --- Kulak +2.6
Timmins +0.8 --- Kulkov -5.7 --- Broberg -1.6



​

Nobody uses their 4th line like we do tbh. It's usually a sheltered line. And very few bottom pair dmen get as tough usage as Benoit gets.
Click to expand...

the other scary thing there is it sure looks like Florida and Edmonton has more ozone starts.

Leafs are 32nd in ozone start% this year.
 
also, obviously neither of those finalists last year used an extreme shutdown pairing like McCabe-Tanev, preferring more balanced pairings.
 
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