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GDT #43: 2025/1/9 - Up a Notch

leafman101 said:
the other scary thing there is it sure looks like Florida and Edmonton has more ozone starts.

Leafs are 32nd in ozone start% this year.
Click to expand...

yeah that's pretty nuts.

Though they do have more ozone starts than dzone starts somehow.

Ah i see the issue - the Leafs just don't get many stoppages.

On Fly Start %: 85.76% (#1)
Ozone Start %: 4.34% (#32)
Nzone Start %: 5.82% (#32)
Dzone Start %: 4.08% (#25)


This is a pretty interesting data point tbh. Not sure if this is good or bad.
 
zeke said:
yeah that's pretty nuts.

Though they do have more ozone starts than dzone starts somehow.

Ah i see the issue - the Leafs just don't get many stoppages.

On Fly Start %: 85.76% (#1)
Ozone Start %: 4.34% (#32)
Nzone Start %: 5.82% (#32)
Dzone Start %: 4.08% (#25)


This is a pretty interesting data point tbh. Not sure if this is good or bad.
Click to expand...
that is fascinating
 
Last year (#9 52.4xgf%):

On Fly Start %: 84.83% (#4)
Ozone Start %: 5.14% (#17)
Nzone Start %: 6.14% (#24)
Dzone Start %: 3.89% (#31)

year before (#5 54.1xgf%) :

On Fly Start %: 85.78% (#1)
Ozone Start %: 4.72% (#27)
Nzone Start %: 5.69% (#32)
Dzone Start %: 3.81% (#30)



hmm doesn't seem like this is anything new tbh. I wonder if it means anything.
 
It seems like too small of a variance to care. You’re talking about a 5 faceoff difference per game between the “best” and “worst” teams.

But the best play driving, chance creating teams are on the top end of the list so it’s a symptom of that.
 
this is piqueing my interest.


16-17: 51.2xgf% (#11) --- 74.6otf% (#12), 8.2ozs% (#18), 10.3nzs% (#16), 6.9dzs% (#17)
17-18: 51.0xgf% (#13) --- 73.5otf% (#20), 8.2ozs% (#20), 11.2nzs% (#10), 7.1dzs% (#18)
18-19: 51.7xgf% (#11) --- 74.2otf% (#15), 8.3ozs% (#14), 10.7nzs% (#18), 6.8dzs% (#19)
19-20: 51.6xgf% (#11) --- 77.2otf% (#3), 7.4ozs% (#26), 9.2nzs% (#29), 6.2dzs% (#25)
20-21: 55.7xgf% (#2) ---- 79.2otf% (#1), 7.0ozs% (#25), 8.5nzs% (#30), 5.3dzs% (#30)
21-22: 56.1xgf% (#3) ---- 80.7otf% (#9), 6.3ozs% (#19), 7.7nzs% (#25), 5.3dzs% (#25)
22-23: 54.1xgf% (#5) ---- 85.8otf% (#1), 4.7ozs% (#27), 5.7nzs% (#32), 3.8dzs% (#30)
23-24: 52.4xgf% (#9) ---- 84.8otf% (#4), 5.1ozs% (#17), 6.1nzs% (#24), 3.9dzs% (#31)
24-25: 49.9xgf% (#18) --- 85.8otf% (#1), 4.3ozs% (#32), 5.8nzs% (#32), 4.1dzs% (#25)


1. Seems there's been a massive downtick in stoppages leaguewide. Not sure i've heard anyone talk about it but it seems pretty extreme.

2. I don't know that I can spot any trend on the leafs that matches xgf% with any particular zone start distribution. If anything, ever since they turned into a top possession team they've been a top on-the-fly team and near the bottom in all zone start categories.

3. But i wonder if zone starts says something important about a team apart from their xgf% rank. Does a lack of ozs over the last 5-6 years indicate a weakness in the team that maybe the xgf% doesn't show? i dunno.

or is this actually a case where we're very good at sustaining a forecheck over multiple shifts instead of chucking it at the net for an easy goalie freeze? which would probably be a good thing?
 
zeke said:
this is piqueing my interest.


16-17: 51.2xgf% (#11) --- 74.6otf% (#12), 8.2ozs% (#18), 10.3nzs% (#16), 6.9dzs% (#17)
17-18: 51.0xgf% (#13) --- 73.5otf% (#20), 8.2ozs% (#20), 11.2nzs% (#10), 7.1dzs% (#18)
18-19: 51.7xgf% (#11) --- 74.2otf% (#15), 8.3ozs% (#14), 10.7nzs% (#18), 6.8dzs% (#19)
19-20: 51.6xgf% (#11) --- 77.2otf% (#3), 7.4ozs% (#26), 9.2nzs% (#29), 6.2dzs% (#25)
20-21: 55.7xgf% (#2) ---- 79.2otf% (#1), 7.0ozs% (#25), 8.5nzs% (#30), 5.3dzs% (#30)
21-22: 56.1xgf% (#3) ---- 80.7otf% (#9), 6.3ozs% (#19), 7.7nzs% (#25), 5.3dzs% (#25)
22-23: 54.1xgf% (#5) ---- 85.8otf% (#1), 4.7ozs% (#27), 5.7nzs% (#32), 3.8dzs% (#30)
23-24: 52.4xgf% (#9) ---- 84.8otf% (#4), 5.1ozs% (#17), 6.1nzs% (#24), 3.9dzs% (#31)
24-25: 49.9xgf% (#18) --- 85.8otf% (#1), 4.3ozs% (#32), 5.8nzs% (#32), 4.1dzs% (#25)


1. Seems there's been a massive downtick in stoppages leaguewide. Not sure i've heard anyone talk about it but it seems pretty extreme.

2. I don't know that I can spot any trend on the leafs that matches xgf% with any particular zone start distribution. If anything, ever since they turned into a top possession team they've been a top on-the-fly team and near the bottom in all zone start categories.

3. But i wonder if zone starts says something important about a team apart from their xgf% rank. Does a lack of ozs over the last 5-6 years indicate a weakness in the team that maybe the xgf% doesn't show? i dunno.

or is this actually a case where we're very good at sustaining a forecheck over multiple shifts instead of chucking it at the net for an easy goalie freeze? which would probably be a good thing?
Click to expand...
seems like further analysis is required!
 
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