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GDT: Leafs @/vs Habs 8pm on sportsnet1

Preston said:
Based on the ice time and PK units for everyone last night... I think Engvall is out. Goat is in. Outside of one shift where Engvall was with the Kerf line, the third period was entirely Robertson-Kerf-Kapp and Clifford-Goat-Spezza with Goat getting PK reps and Engvall mostly sitting on the bench.

But they'll all get some action throughout the series and playoffs. I'm assuming there will be a rotation between the three of them unless Robertson makes it impossible to remove him. Otherwise if it's just a rotation between Engvall and Goat it's hard to sweat it. 4th line centers don't really move the needle and Goat, for as much as we hate him, at the very least is an average one. Extremely low event player, which is fine.
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I guess there’s two ways you can look at it. Your view has Occam’s Razor on its side, since that’s the simplest explanation for why Engvall didn’t play much.

My optimistic view on the ice-time distribution last night is that Keefe’s already seen everything he needs to see from Engvall, but wanted to give Goat and Robertson plenty of ice to prove which deserves to be in the lineup for game #1 against Columbus.

We’ll see how it shakes out. Obviously it’s not earth-shattering either way who ends up being our 12th forward, but Engvall’s a better player than Goat and we don’t really need Goat for our PK, so I’ll be at least a little disappointed if he plays & Engvall sits.
 
LeafGm said:
My optimistic view on the ice-time distribution last night is that Keefe’s already seen everything he needs to see from Engvall, but wanted to give Goat and Robertson plenty of ice to prove which deserves to be in the lineup for game #1 against Columbus.
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I'd agree if there wasn't only one preseason game. There would be no reason to not play your actual lineup as much as possible to get them in a groove in the one and only tune-up game. But we shall see. I'm having a hard time getting worked up over it regardless.
 
Preston said:
Might already be better at 5 on 5. Kadri will have the edge on the PP for quite awhile though I think. He's not a difference maker or driver there but he produces pretty consistently. But Kerf is younger, cheaper and cost controlled so it's a major reach to be upset about that trade if you remove emotions, which is asking a lot for fans. Hence, the constant analysis about the Leafs getting skewered.
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His edge on the PP may of course only be a result of him getting a permanent big minute 1st pp unit spot on 2 elite PPs (while being the worst top unit guy on both teams). I know he didn't deserve that slot here ahead of Nylander, and I'm not 100% that he deserves his current spot over Burakovsky.
 
LeafGm said:
I guess there’s two ways you can look at it. Your view has Occam’s Razor on its side, since that’s the simplest explanation for why Engvall didn’t play much.

My optimistic view on the ice-time distribution last night is that Keefe’s already seen everything he needs to see from Engvall, but wanted to give Goat and Robertson plenty of ice to prove which deserves to be in the lineup for game #1 against Columbus.

We’ll see how it shakes out. Obviously it’s not earth-shattering either way who ends up being our 12th forward, but Engvall’s a better player than Goat and we don’t really need Goat for our PK, so I’ll be at least a little disappointed if he plays & Engvall sits.
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I think I'm leaning towards Preston's side on this - engvall was in a prove it spot too, especially as a C.

And in that 4th line spot keefe might value little things like Goat being much better on faceoffs.
 
zeke said:
His edge on the PP may of course only be a result of him getting a permanent big minute 1st pp unit spot on 2 elite PPs (while being the worst top unit guy on both teams). I know he didn't deserve that slot here ahead of Nylander, and I'm not 100% that he deserves his current spot over Burakovsky.
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True but he seems to be far more effective than kerf on the pp in the last few years. Kerf didn't produce on the pp on the same very team that kadri plays on. Sure, he was mostly on the second unit but that was for a reason.

Just to be clear, I entirely agree with you that Kerfoot > Kadri when you take into account age, salary and fit on the Leafs. But while I understand it's hard to get a good quantitative understanding of PP skills because of Kadri's insane QOT on the PP the last couple years, I can pretty confidently say he's a much better PP player than Kerfoot.
 
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Preston said:
True but he seems to be far more effective than kerf on the pp in the last few years. Kerf didn't produce on the pp on the same very team that kadri plays on. Sure, he was mostly on the second unit but that was for a reason.
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o rly?

PP p/60, last 3yrs:

Kadri: 4.75
Kerfoot: 4.72

and that's with Kadri getting ALL his pp minutes on elite top units, and Kerf only getting about half of his there.
 
zeke said:
o rly?

PP p/60, last 3yrs:

Kadri: 4.75
Kerfoot: 4.72

and that's with Kadri getting ALL his pp minutes on elite top units, and Kerf only getting about half of his there.
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Interesting. Do primary points. 2nd assists on PPs are more worthless than 2nd assists at evens. Zaitsev got 30+ points with secondary assists on the PP.
 
Nah I'm good. Taking a quick look Kerf racked up PPA2/60 on the Avs. Led the team since his rookie season by a lot so I'm pretty fine with my opinion/eye test assessment that Kadri is a better PP player than him.
 
LeafGm said:
My optimistic view on the ice-time distribution last night is that Keefe’s already seen everything he needs to see from Engvall, but wanted to give Goat and Robertson plenty of ice to prove which deserves to be in the lineup for game #1 against Columbus.
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This was also happening with your lovetoy Marincin last night. Fair bit of ice time spread with all blueliners outside of Dermott. Keefe was, imo, experimenting and testing combos.
 
or maybe because Naz gets the high slot spot on elite PP units?

(Colorado's pp is worse this year than last btw, toronto's is better).
 
BeLeafer said:
This was also happening with your lovetoy Marincin last night. Fair bit of ice time spread with all blueliners outside of Dermott. Keefe was, imo, experimenting and testing combos.
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That’s a good point. If Keefe’s main goal last night was to get his starting roster for game one into as much of a groove as possible, then it didn’t make much sense for Marincin to see much, if any ice-time.
 
Kind of though. The extras have to be prepared too. They will all very possibly get some games in. Doesn't hurt to get everyone some reps. But the lines as a whole were fairly consistent otherwise.
 
one game tiny sample stats....

Muzzin-Holl: 8:49, 45.7xgf% (-.02xgf)
Rielly-Ceci: 9:09, 63.6xgf% (+.19xgf)
Dermott-Barrie: 9:40, 76.1xgf% (+.20xgf%)

Obviously with Muzz-Holl getting the toughest matchups and zone starts, and dermott-barrie getting the easiest. Very nice to see out of the Rielly-Ceci pair - they really should be a very good pair in less than elite matchup usage. And Dermott-Barrie has no excuse not to be a dominant bottom pairing.

Rielly-Dermott: 1:57, 24.5xgf%

This pair was responsible for maybe our worst defensive shift of the game, where they scored their second goal after having 3-4 glorious chances in wide open space.


Marincin-Ceci: 1:55, 100.0xgf%
Rielly-Marincin: 0:54, 75.4xgf%
Marincin-Holl: 0:58, 69.8xgf%
Marincin-Barrie: 2:01, 50.3xgf%
Muzzin-Marincin: 0:43, ----
Marincin-Dermott: 1:04, 0.0xgf%

Marincin did his thing pretty much whoever he played with.
 
overall, nice to see that they only got in real trouble when the pairings got mixed up.
 
LeafGm said:
That’s a good point. If Keefe’s main goal last night was to get his starting roster for game one into as much of a groove as possible, then it didn’t make much sense for Marincin to see much, if any ice-time.
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He reminds me of Quinn in how he preps for the playoffs. Test combos, see what might work, go back to the tried ones and switch it up quick if shit's not working. Playing lots of combos gets the players acclimated and gives him flexibility going in. I quite like that approach.
 
I'll definitely be watching some Avs. They've been crowing they rinsed Dubas for months now, will be interesting to see if Kadri can put the team ahead of himself for a change when the games count.
 
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