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Preston said:
Crunched the nummies. On the conservative side trulieve did 12% on Florida. This is assuming similar price decreases as Q3 compared to Q2 which were abnormally steep; there were shortages this quarter in Florida so there's a chance prices didn't decrease but if prices stayed the same we're looking at 15-16% growth just in florida. ~12% gets them to a 152m floor (which is actually 11.5% growth but let's be cautious). And then last quarter based on their proforma revenues the pa acquisition did around 18.6m. They'll have just under a half quarter of those. Let's assume minimal growth and another 9m. And we'll say Connecticut and California add around 500k; if it's more than that I doubt it's much more. I'll say a 161.5m dollar floor for around 18.5% qoq growth. Proforma at 170ish.

Of course this is just the floor. Analysts have them at 161.1 which I feel will be low. We'll say 161-170 with proforma at 170-180. Think PA expansion comes online in Q1 2021 so I'm not expecting much growth there though I could be wrong.
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Nice beat at 168.4, curious to see proformas. Will likely be in the call and based on my math it's probably just a hair under 180m. Impressive. Looks like the 15-16% qoq growth in Florida was accurate in the end. The only x-factor when predicting these is whether prices decreased or not. They did in Q3, doesn't look like they did in Q4 assuming PA showed no or minimal growth (which I have reason to believe).

Operational costs naturally went up so their margins decreased a good amount but that's expected with their acquisition closing mid-quarter.
 
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shakeup at TerraKing..CEO is out. Jason Wilde steps up and will find a new CEO. They boosted their already boosted pre-announced numbers.
 
CH1 said:
shakeup at TerraKing..CEO is out. Jason Wilde steps up and will find a new CEO. They boosted their already boosted pre-announced numbers.
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CEO stepping down is usually a bearish reaction so we'll see how they do today. Their 2021 guidance is very underwhelming for me but I always make the mistake of comparing them to similarly valued MSOs. Can't do that.

*”Unfortunately, there were differences in philosophy over management style and culture, and the Board and I decided it is in the best interest of the Company for us to part ways. We wish him the best in all his future endeavors*.”

Looks like the breakup may not have been on the best terms.
 
I think JW is the man (for the street)....him leaving would hurt the stock but he's taking on a bigger role...so I think it's booooolish!!!
 
Kim: "Recent Florida adult-use poll shows 90% medical approval, 70+ adult use. Two ballot questions in the Supreme Court. 2022/2024 approval depends on SC and getting enough signatures."

"In PA, there is no limitation on cultivation/processing, but must build on one site. We entered PA based on ability to scale. Adding 90k grow in Q1 2021. Will continue to grow."

Their cultivation expansion for PA came online in Q1 2021 so next earnings should see another nice boost for them in addition to nice growth in Florida. Their growth simply isn't going to slow anytime soon and if they go rec legal it'll get even more crazy. Maybe Kim's lack of aggression will age well in the end. Truth is we don't know. They are the literal opposite of Curaleaf, with Thumb somewhere smack dab in the middle, and who the fuck knows which strategy is best in the end.
 
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buyer strike in pot stocks continues

I bot MSFT calls and calls in DMTK
 
Cresco always gets the shit end of the stick. They report last every time and by then pot stock buyers are already gone. The stock barely reacted last quarter to 63% qoq growth which was a beat by like 40+% if I recall. Feels like it'll happen again. Report earlier, dummies.
 
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nice win in MSFT...taking a break; kept a few calls to see if there's more upside action

DMTK up nicely -- still holding full position on that one
 
Funny thing is I'm leaner than ever in terms of positions held. TRUL, Thumb, Cresco in these last two days and that is it. Probably could have picked better names to hold through this shit but at least I went quite a bit lighter I suppose.

Plan on being less active this year. Just hold my smaller core and relax/enjoy myself. Don't see enough catalysts to get excited about this year but still very excited about the sector of course.
 
CH1 said:
except this time, the runup into earnings was muted as the overall market was weak.....
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Yeah still had the run-up though as most names approached ATHs. The general pattern was exactly the same but of course it's always pending on the broad market to determine how far they rise and how hard they drop.
 
Yeah 2 of the 3 names I decided to hold are performing the worst on my watchlist outside of VEXT (small caps during market consolidation scurs me).

TLDR: Today sucks and so will much of the rest of the year I think.
 
I'm gonna nibble on some of the big boys if they hit my levels...

TRUL already did at 58.45...so I bought some
GTII just did at 39...so got some
 
Would love to see a nice bounce on them so I hope you crush it.


Now that the SPAC craze is over I'm eyeing CERE again. They're awfully cheap at these levels. Believe their acquisition closes in the summer so I'll eye them until then. They might be insanely cheap. Current guidance has them pulling in $450m in revenue in 2021 with $100m in adj EBITDA. Tbh both numbers seem a bit aggressive so I'm not sure I fully trust the guidance. But they're still pretty cheap at a $1.95b EV.

Hoping they drop below $10. That's when I'd enter.
 
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And man.. Sooner or later Jay Z is going to be highway robbery. $760m EV right now! I might hop back in if they lose $8 because they're basically trading at a 2x sales multiple right now. Seems a bit aggressive.
 
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This is what I'm eyeballing....of course it can always head lower, but that slide into QR1 (dark blue line -- almost there) usually provides a bounce, especially after such a rapid descent


MSOS.PNG
 
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