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Preston

The Artist Formerly Known as Goldust
Not surprised about the revenue based on the maths. Execution risk with Harvest now but they feel cheap! Only looming threat is Kim's husbands trial will be firing up soon!
 

MSOS

Member


There is no bottom. The good news is, if I cash out now, I'll still have enough money to buy a rope.

/position
 

Preston

The Artist Formerly Known as Goldust
From a pure valuation perspective I still think Ayr, Trulieve and Columbia Care are the best at this moment.

Now they all have execution risk but even in worst case scenarios they feel pretty cheap to me.
 

CH1

The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
caught a juicy dead cat bounce in DKNG...my day is done

that thing tends to a great Friday mover
 

CH1

The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
The bulls are back. I think Attila was right about crypto and Cathie Wood stocks but the overall market keeps humming along.

I banked a juicy reversal last week...and then took a few days off..including today.

Tempted to take the rest of week off and let some hedges lock in some of the profits

Still heavy in weed stocks waiting for some action. Not terrible exciting but at least those Gold calls I mentioned went up over 40% rather quickly.
 

Preston

The Artist Formerly Known as Goldust
I got 160% on my September 2021 gold calls. Still hanging onto my longer term ones but that was a shockingly amazing payday. I plan on reloading calls if it ever consolidates sharply (shit is really fucking overbought) but not married to the idea either. Would rather see moon from here so my 2022 calls pay.
 
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CH1

The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
I attempted an ES short.....thing didn't co-operate so I exited gracefully....made a total of $5

turning off the screens to go for a stroll

not interested in watching the market unless some volatility returns
 

Preston

The Artist Formerly Known as Goldust
Pot stocks are interesting me again, slowly but surely. Even in the absence of interesting legislative progress Q2 and Q3 will be bangers for many of these corporations much like last year. Between seasonality effects, closures of acquisitions, and expansions coming online the days of crazy growth will return. 2022 and 2023 will be the larger growth years but that doesn't mean things will stagnate this year.

And of course if the market stays hot these companies will have their day in the sun again. Got a bit unlucky to see market weakness for the second earnings season in a row. Hype is gone now and they're a lot cheaper. That excites me.
 

Preston

The Artist Formerly Known as Goldust
I didn't love Columbia's earnings and I suspect Ayr's may not be the best either in Q1 but they're my top two picks for the largest growth stories in Q2 and Q3 and especially into 2022 and 2023. I don't think any of that is priced in.
 
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CH1

The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
Oh yeah...I have been accumulating a shit ton of pot stocks in my LT account (no daily flipping there)

VRNO is up 15% since I started accumulating.

The day in the sun will come for the sector....I'm happy to wait for my payday. The sector ain't going anywhere.
 

Preston

The Artist Formerly Known as Goldust
Oh yeah...I have been accumulating a shit ton of pot stocks in my LT account (no daily flipping there)

VRNO is up 15% since I started accumulating.

The day in the sun will come for the sector....I'm happy to wait for my payday. The sector ain't going anywhere.
I don't think I posted about it much but Veranos earnings legitimately stunned me. They are fucking insanely profitable and will continue to grow like crazy this year with their acquisitions coming online. I honestly think I might rank them ahead of Thumb as the #3 with Trulieve and Curaleaf being 1 and 2 operators in size/value.

And their Q2 guidance is over $200m so we're looking at huuuuuge growth.
 
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CH1

The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
I got a little lucky with VRNO because my reason for buying wasn't an earnings forecast but simply depressed stock price as a result of them IPOing at the end of the bull cycle. 30 to 20 was too much of a drop, IMO
 

Preston

The Artist Formerly Known as Goldust
As for me I've been playing the arbitrage between thumb and Ayr. Historically they've mimicked each other's price action and at one point thumb as about $5 more expensive than them. So I sold all my thumb at like 38 and put it in Ayr at around 33. Thought process was that if thumb and the sector popped, Ayr at the most upside. If the sector tanked, thumb had the most downside. I was hoping for the former, but in the end the latter happened. Have a more equal split between the two now that they met each other. Ayr hasn't really moved and thumb tanked.

So I didn't lose money as the sector dropped. I'll take it. Outside of Verano I've got some trulieve exposure now (don't fully trust that the deal closes so not comfortable holding harvest), and added a bunch of vext at 81c as they report soon. Should do quite well with 2 months of AZ rec legal weed. Their ongoing expansions are the ticket longer term though. Used their warchest of cash to expand and add value which I love... already went through the dilution phase by raising more cash than they need to operate.
 

Preston

The Artist Formerly Known as Goldust
I got a little lucky with VRNO because my reason for buying wasn't an earnings forecast but simply depressed stock price as a result of them IPOing at the end of the bull cycle. 30 to 20 was too much of a drop, IMO
Yeah I think I mentioned that here too. They were oversold and I think their gradual share unlock hurt them. Zero buyers in the sector and especially on this name and you have a bunch of people with a sub 10, maybe sub 1 average with unlocked shares coming online. That'll weigh on it.
 
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