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LeafOfFaith

Well-known member
One thing I'll say is that I'm pretty confident you'll get it back. The fundamentals are there in a very big way, if that gives you any peace. The day to day stuff is just noise that comes from being on a 5th rate exchange.
I'm confident I'll get it back too, but the question is when. I hate being locked into something and just waiting it out, especially when I'm not in love with this shit to begin with. I may buy more soon, just to bring down my cost and make it easier to dump when I hit even again. This is why I despised EA so much. Right after I bought it, it tanked off some unexpectedly bad earnings one quarter, and it took two years of watching red before I got my chance to get out. And that piece of crap is still hovering where I bought and sold it even today, like a year after I dumped it.
 

Preston

AKA: Preston Fauci. Prestauci.
I'm confident I'll get it back too, but the question is when. I hate being locked into something and just waiting it out, especially when I'm not in love with this shit to begin with. I may buy more soon, just to bring down my cost and make it easier to dump when I hit even again. This is why I despised EA so much. Right after I bought it, it tanked off some unexpectedly bad earnings one quarter, and it took two years of watching red before I got my chance to get out. And that piece of crap is still hovering where I bought and sold it even today, like a year after I dumped it.
Yeah timing is never gonna be a guarantee. You'd think that with each passing year the SP floor would be far higher considering their growth. The floor used to be $10 CAD for Thumb, for example, for a couple of years pre-covid (I bought more shares of Thumb in the 10s than any other stock in my lifetime probably, cumulatively speaking). That's a 1.7b market cap for a company that may do close to 1.7b in revenues next year. At the time they were at a $200-300m annual run rate so it should theoretically never get to $10 again barring a catastrophe. So that's the nice part. The growth is consistent and pretty much guaranteed since there is currently a moat around their business that they will have for at least the next few years; no external threats, supply will not = demand for a long while yet and more and more states are going legal. Well oiled machines and it's hard to find a moat like that elsewhere.

A few more years operating as they have and their revenues are gonna double or even triple from here especially with NY, NJ going online soon with PA, Ohio, Maryland looming in the background ready to go eventually. And that SP floor will continue to rise as they reach 2, 3, 4b in revenues in the next 3-4 years. The moat is not gonna be forever and that's the part that would scare me if my plan was to invest in these companies forever. But it ain't. During those euphoric bull moves those concerns are not priced in and we price in absolute best case scenarios. That's what I'm here for selling into. During despair we price in absolutely catastrophe and utter failure. That's what I'm here for buying up. We're gonna get a lot of both scenarios in the coming years and it's wise to take advantage of it!

TLDR: Short to midterm growth is all but guaranteed unless the government steps in and they don't really seem keen on that even with a dem controlled Senate.
 
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Habsy

Yes, I'm kidding people.
Staff member
Curaleaf is killing it with sales. I don't know how the other companies can compete. I just picked up mix and match 1 1/8 Oz for $130.

Less than $14 an eigth.
 

Preston

AKA: Preston Fauci. Prestauci.
Curaleaf is killing it with sales. I don't know how the other companies can compete. I just picked up mix and match 1 1/8 Oz for $130.

Less than $14 an eigth.
Oooo Habsy doing the ground work. Hearing a lot of companies are ramping up promos and discounts in Florida. Price wars appear to be beginning there as supply increases and more companies try to take a slice out of the Trulieve pie... Margin compression already sorta happened for Trulieve this past quarter, though it is and will continue to be a gradual process most likely!
 

Preston

AKA: Preston Fauci. Prestauci.
I AM RIGHT THERE WITH YOU!!!!

I've been patiently nibbling on the way down!!! The thesis hasn't changed. They are growing at astronomic rates, profitable and many of these names fund their expansion through cashflow from operations. In the past these drawdowns scared me a bit more because of a lot of these companies potentially needed to raise cash via bought deals and diluted their stock at hilariously low levels. But that's not the case for most of the big boys. My juices are flowing this time around. This is truly a gift. The hard part is knowing when they'll pay us but if you're patient it'll come.

Some are trading at 3x2022E sales and 6-7x2022 EBITDA which is unheard of in basically any sector. NOTHING HAS CHANGED!!!!

When I say that these drawdowns are how I've made money in this sector I wasn't lying. It's cyclical and not based on fundamentals. Take advantage and you'll crush it.
 

Habsy

Yes, I'm kidding people.
Staff member
Trulieve site been crashing all day. No Buen. They're doing a big sale and got slammed. Someone needs fired.
 

LeafOfFaith

Well-known member
I AM RIGHT THERE WITH YOU!!!!

I've been patiently nibbling on the way down!!! The thesis hasn't changed. They are growing at astronomic rates, profitable and many of these names fund their expansion through cashflow from operations. In the past these drawdowns scared me a bit more because of a lot of these companies potentially needed to raise cash via bought deals and diluted their stock at hilariously low levels. But that's not the case for most of the big boys. My juices are flowing this time around. This is truly a gift. The hard part is knowing when they'll pay us but if you're patient it'll come.

Some are trading at 3x2022E sales and 6-7x2022 EBITDA which is unheard of in basically any sector. NOTHING HAS CHANGED!!!!

When I say that these drawdowns are how I've made money in this sector I wasn't lying. It's cyclical and not based on fundamentals. Take advantage and you'll crush it.
Thumb hasn't crashed that hard, yet MSOS is being devastated. Is it just holding a ton of bad weed players?
 

Preston

AKA: Preston Fauci. Prestauci.
Thumb hasn't crashed that hard, yet MSOS is being devastated. Is it just holding a ton of bad weed players?
Thumb is really the only one that has held strong. Trulieve has serious legal issues so they've taken a beating.

From highs:
Cresco: -44%
Trulieve: -50%
Thumb: -27%
Curaleaf: -39%


Those are the top 4 holdings. Outside of Thumb it's quite ugly. Based on past events all this means is that this is an opportunity. Hard part is sticking to it because it can take awhile. So I accumulate slowly over time.
 

LeafOfFaith

Well-known member
I strayed from my philosophies not just by buying into something I have no interest in (greed...), but also in buying an ETF because I'm a stock picker. So now I've been hammered by all the shit names that I would've never bought individually. ETFs are for lazy asses, and I got stupid and lazy on this one, so I deserve it. I'll sell it as soon as it gets back to even. I love EA compared to MSOS now.
 

Preston

AKA: Preston Fauci. Prestauci.
Yeah I mentioned in the past that weed stocks may not be your "style" to begin with. You're more of a buy big and sit and watch kinda guy but that's not how these stocks operate. They need to be actively managed. The big benefit will come when they uplist. So the other option is to look away and hold for the uplisting, because I genuinely believe that results in a 2+ bagger off the hop. My issue with that is we don't know when that is and if I had to guess it's not anytime soon.

These stocks go from pricing in the absolute worst, deathly case scenario to a pretty decently optimistic scenario. Rinse and repeat a few times over across multiple years. Sentiment, not fundamentals, determine everything.
 

G-Dub

Active member
I was evicted from my home since buying into $MSOS, but that's just part of this generational opportunity. This is a gift and we are #Blessed to be invested in a sector that falls apart and tanks 50% for literally no reason at all. The more things spiral out of control, the more thankful I am. 🙏🙏🙏🎁
 

Preston

AKA: Preston Fauci. Prestauci.
Yeah I mentioned in the past that weed stocks may not be your "style" to begin with. You're more of a buy big and sit and watch kinda guy but that's not how these stocks operate. They need to be actively managed. The big benefit will come when they uplist. So the other option is to look away and hold for the uplisting, because I genuinely believe that results in a 2+ bagger off the hop. My issue with that is we don't know when that is and if I had to guess it's not anytime soon.

These stocks go from pricing in the absolute worst, deathly case scenario to a pretty decently optimistic scenario. Rinse and repeat a few times over across multiple years. Sentiment, not fundamentals, determine everything.
And this is why it's possible to take advantage of it, fyi. Market inefficiencies are there to be used and abused.
 

LeafOfFaith

Well-known member
I already treat them as look away holdings. I don't focus on them because I hate them now but also because I'm pretty red and I won't sell at a loss, so there's nothing to do, except add, and I'm not loving the idea of using aggressive moves on something I don't like much anymore.
 
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