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Hey Nerds: Blockchain

Sector was so fucking thirsty for a real catalyst in an environment where every piece of shit in every other sector was running beyond euphoria. Any little excuse and a squeeze was always gonna be on. Needless to say this sector is what it is. 9 month slow, agonizing bleeds met with 1-2 month face rippers. If disciplined and patient and if you play the cycles and psychological warfare that this sector puts you through, there is a lot of money to be made.
 


Good summary of where we are and what we need to see in the short-term to keep the train moving. A lot of it is common sense but sometimes emotions get the best of traders/investors so it's good practice to listen to a dude that makes fucking bank trading for a living.
 
Vext is up 2.5% since Friday's open.


For that reason, I'm back in. It held up waaaaaaaaaay better than other names so maybe upside isn't quite there in the short-term. But eventually money will pivot to pennies like Vext and a thinly traded name means there is fun to be had.
 
Preston said:
Vext is up 2.5% since Friday's open.


For that reason, I'm back in. It held up waaaaaaaaaay better than other names so maybe upside isn't quite there in the short-term. But eventually money will pivot to pennies like Vext and a thinly traded name means there is fun to be had.
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I had the same thought and added today

trimmed most of my AGFY near 22....It's an ancillary play that I bought last week at 15 something
 
Tilly breaks 12.10 and follows through and we may get another bombfest on them. I was in last week in the low 10's.
 
Charts all desperately need to cool down though. Breathe a little. Makes me nervous when they go up too much, too fast.
 
Lots of space here to set that higher low. Much needed cool-off period.


If we pullback hard and the next wave of buyers come in and take us to new highs, it's a wrap.
 
Preston said:
Vext is up 2.5% since Friday's open.


For that reason, I'm back in. It held up waaaaaaaaaay better than other names so maybe upside isn't quite there in the short-term. But eventually money will pivot to pennies like Vext and a thinly traded name means there is fun to be had.
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Threw a couple bucks in these guys yesterday before market close: https://www.kash.io/
Ticker: KASH.CN

Some interesting features, including a limited market for stocks/ETFs that you can buy with crypto, aUST saving account, along with a small crypto exchange. Was up 25% today. Interface looks pretty slick as well. Just a penny stock but something to keep an eye on for the next few months if you're interested in the space.
 
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Thumb reports after hours today. Expecting a flat earnings. Their top two markets (Illinois and PA) were flat and then you've got key states like Nevada that dropped. Hard to know for sure since they keep their cultivation expansion efforts secret but I have a hard time seeing any significant growth here from them. I know they are slowly expanding in Florida and Mass grew a bit this quarter but not sure if that will make much of a difference. It was simply a down quarter for cannabis consumption in the US.

Really need NJ to go live to see the classic growth from these corporations.
 
Not sure earnings matter all that much for GTII and their peers.... already factored in the shitty stock prices but will love to hear your take on it.
 
CH1 said:
Not sure earnings matter all that much for GTII and their peers.... already factored in the shitty stock prices but will love to hear your take on it.
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Agree. Shouldn't matter but could hurt momentum a bit. I think if Thumb puts out a shocker (they tend to do that) and kill it that could work the other way. But I agree, it shouldn't matter if they're equally as mediocre as Curaleaf's. For me, I'm looking at margins.. They're all dropping (we knew this would happen) but I think for Curaleaf Florida was a big part of that. @Habsy could probably attest to it.. They're all basically giving away weed there. Huge pricing wars. Except Verano.. They fancy themselves as premium weed guys and haven't adjusted their pricing yet and their sales I believe grew a bit this quarter with expansion.. I believe their opex is higher than all MSOs this year and some of their expansion is coming online soon (or has already). With Thumb barely in Florida hopefully their margin hit won't be as pronounced. NJ/NY will get those margins up again (or at least balance out the dropping margins elsewhere).

I was mostly surprised at how optimistic estimates were for Curaleaf and I think that hurt them yesterday, down 4%. The analysts in the space still suck. Public data clearly shows lack of growth in almost all states in this quarter so it wasn't hard to predict. I think many of them scaled back estimates on the other names now tho so that's good.

Columbia Care and Verano are the two that I think could look pretty good this quarter, comparatively speaking in terms of revenue growth due to some acquisitions closing. With Columbia margins are always gonna be a big question mark though. Higher risk there but they've been beaten so badly.

For today I'm looking at FIB retracement levels and the lower we go, the more likely we go into an equilibrium instead of a bull flag to new highs. It's about probabilities really. A big beat from Thumb I think would help the cause but I do think today is a big day and may give us some answers on what is more likely to happen in the short-term. The consolidation is good and healthy but retracing too much just makes it less likely we get a big reversal and daily uptrend. Which is fine too, but it does make it more likely to eventually test lows again in the coming weeks/months.
 
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