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Hey Nerds: Blockchain

The biggest tech names in the biz dropping by 70% or more when they're raking in billions in revenue hand over fist is a little tough to predict or swallow now that it's happened and continues to trend downwards.
 
I was in full blown panic mode in Feb 2021 in this thread. So I was about a year and a half off. But I don't think it was particularly hard to predict or anything; valuations were ridiculous. whether they make billions or not, there has to be a limit of how much growth you can price in. But the timing of this was always the question mark and the black swan event known as uncontrollable inflation has expedited the process.
 
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yeah...but I don't even think inflation was that much of a black swan. a lot of folks warned that this would be the ultimate result after a decade plus of easy monetary policy.

timing, like you said, is always the challenge
 
Yeah predicting a recession or bear market is the easy part. That's always gonna come again and again and again. Timing is everything. And my SPY puts I bought last year expired 2-3 months too early potentially. I trimmed a bunch and did slightly better than break even but it should have been so much better.

TLDR: being a bear is hard. Better to hedge with cash and slowly buy on the way down.
 
C'est la vie, mes amies. I wish I knew 6-7 years ago that all of the moves I was carefully making, dollar cost averaging in, holding through roller coasters, stressing daily over where things went, and then being up by a lot, would ultimately result in being in a better position had I just not wasted a second of my time or money investing in anything.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
C'est la vie, mes amies. I wish I knew 6-7 years ago that all of the moves I was carefully making, dollar cost averaging in, holding through roller coasters, stressing daily over where things went, and then being up by a lot, would ultimately result in being in a better position had I just not wasted a second of my time or money investing in anything.
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Gotta pay yourself sometimes when things go parabolic. Take some off and lock in the gains from the hard work you did. Until you do that, there are no gains.

With that said, things will of course recover. So maybe it's best to ignore the noise until then.
 
Preston said:
Gotta pay yourself sometimes when things go parabolic. Take some off and lock in the gains from the hard work you did. Until you do that, there are no gains.

With that said, things will of course recover.
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That was definitely one of my biggest mistakes. But I bought in Buffett style, not just with zero plans to sell in 10-20 years, but honestly zero plans to sell ever basically.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
That was definitely one of my biggest mistakes. But I bought in Buffett style, not just with zero plans to sell in 10-20 years, but honestly zero plans to sell ever basically.
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you were worried about taxes, I remember

I'd rather pay taxes on gains than look at red streaks

also, because I love you, if you wanna Buffet you have to also buy stocks like Coke and Mickey Ds (boring during a parabolic bull but cash flow kings in any environment) not 100% tech momos
 
I've been too afraid to go long on much for about a year and a half now. In my eyes this is only making the market more investable again. It was well over-due. Been slowly adding to my long ETFs on the way down. Getting crushed of course, but these aren't trades. They are my no-touch positions for the long, long term. Sometimes parabolic moves beg you to lock in gains. Have to resist the temptation to hold and ask yourself what you're really holding for as valuations and momo get to obscene levels.
 
I was not aggressive enough with bagging my MSOS related gains

I did not learn my lesson; instead I blame Todd Harrison
 
made a little rib eye money (but not enough for blue cheese) with those NVDA calls...kept a low cost runner for tomorrow
 
CH1 said:
I was not aggressive enough win bagging my MSOS related gains

I did not learn my lesson; instead I blame Todd Harrison
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I was but I keep taking small losses thinking "hey maybe this is now the bottom derp"

Occasionally some great gains but now caught in a GTII that is down ~5%. I do think the setup is quite nice because I'm pretty convinced that legislative action will happen before midterms (in a time where literally no one thinks that). But ultimately, the broad market needs to be stronger or it's probably gonna be pointless; relative strength likely but that's about it. SAFE isn't that important at the end of the day.
 
yeah overall risk on/risk off appetites more important than sector specific news...tho I like the r/r here in pot
 
CH1 said:
you were worried about taxes, I remember

I'd rather pay taxes on gains than look at red streaks

also, because I love you, if you wanna Buffet you have to also buy stocks like Coke and Mickey Ds (boring during a parabolic bull but cash flow kings in any environment) not 100% tech momos
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I’ve got a few of them, but a relatively small portion of the overall. I definitely fucked up by falling too in love with tech.
 
And yeah, taxes is always a major concern, but of course knowing this kind of drop was in store, I wish I sold it all and paid the man.
 
tech is like the crazy blonde bitch you can't resist because when things are good, they're real gud!

comment flagged for potential sexist material
 
CH1 said:
tech is like the crazy blonde bitch you can't resist because when things are good, they're real gud!

comment flagged for potential sexist material
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I liken it to being married to a Latina (don't ask how I know), but same idea.
 
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Also a big problem with the MSOs is that the fundamentals kinda broke down last year at the same time the Dems haven't done shit in the Senate, all while we're in a market-wide bear market. Perfect shitstorm really.

Margins compressing, flat sales in multiple states as they mature, growth slowing considerably... It hasn't been a great year. Expected, but probably not to this extent. And it's gotta make folks wonder what happens when all markets mature; may look a little more like Canada in the end, which is why I will stop playing with these toys before that happens (should still be good growth till the end of 2023 at least). NJ going online and NY coming online soon are the only things saving them in the near-term future.


With that said, at these levels you're not really pricing in any growth. They've just gotta get rid of that 280e tax provision because it's grossly impacting their operations. Let them run like a real business and all of a sudden their profitability will soar.
 
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