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Hey Nerds: Blockchain

Could be an amalgamation of all the top FI trolls rolled into one singular AI persona. Is this the unlimited interactivity we were promised with X?
 
Preston said:
The age old question... Buying opportunity or the beginning of a rough close to 2023?
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Only one thing is for certain, which is that my nerves will be fried either way. I had lunch with a litigator friend yesterday and he painted a picture of defaults, bank failures, foreclosures, and bankruptcies to blast us back to a decade ago soon, so that was a fun meal.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Only one thing is for certain, which is that my nerves will be fried either way. I had lunch with a litigator friend yesterday and he painted a picture of defaults, bank failures, foreclosures, and bankruptcies to blast us back to a decade ago soon, so that was a fun meal.
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Sentiment is generally very bullish out there overall, but there are plenty of people looming in the background that are predicting some dire, dire shit. Of course, the track record for bears is generally garbage but there are plenty of former very successful mega bulls who are verrrry bearish right now.

I personally enjoyed the run-up, got back into flipping some names, locked in profits and put some into broad market ETFs and yes, more recently some into GICs at a ~5.65% rate (boomer life, I know). I don't really pay much attention to the noise one way or another. I usually get myself into trouble when I think I can outsmart the market by evaluating macro conditions... Not that I ever really try, but I would get myself into trouble if I did!
 
Preston said:
Sentiment is generally very bullish out there overall, but there are plenty of people looming in the background that are predicting some dire, dire shit. Of course, the track record for bears is generally garbage but there are plenty of former very successful mega bulls who are verrrry bearish right now.

I personally enjoyed the run-up, got back into flipping some names, locked in profits and put some into broad market ETFs and yes, more recently some into GICs at a ~5.65% rate (boomer life, I know). I don't really pay much attention to the noise one way or another. I usually get myself into trouble when I think I can outsmart the market by evaluating macro conditions... Not that I ever really try, but I would get myself into trouble if I did!
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It’s tough to argue it on its face, but I’m certainly no economist to be able to throw counterbalancing arguments out there. But people here definitely borrowed big at very low rates to buy homes and commercial real estate, companies borrowed to complete large stock buybacks, etc. Those loans probably come due relatively soon, and doing a refi will multiply the payment by 2x or 3x. Already seeing the residential market soften in a pretty noticeable way, and buyers seem to be nowhere to be found since prices are still nosebleed level and now without dirt cheap rates to enable people to pay those prices. Unless rates go down quickly to reverse course - while the Fed is saying more increases will come, so that seems off the table - it seems like a pretty bleak outlook.

Already seeing WFH destroy the commercial market. Huge buildings purchased within the past ten years are trading hands at 50% to 60% less in places like LA and SF.

But like you, I’m quick to say I don’t know shit about evaluating the near or long term broader markets, so as usual I just stay in my investor coma and hope to wake up to good news each day.
 
Preston said:
Sentiment is generally very bullish out there overall, but there are plenty of people looming in the background that are predicting some dire, dire shit. Of course, the track record for bears is generally garbage but there are plenty of former very successful mega bulls who are verrrry bearish right now.

I personally enjoyed the run-up, got back into flipping some names, locked in profits and put some into broad market ETFs and yes, more recently some into GICs at a ~5.65% rate (boomer life, I know). I don't really pay much attention to the noise one way or another. I usually get myself into trouble when I think I can outsmart the market by evaluating macro conditions... Not that I ever really try, but I would get myself into trouble if I did!
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I guess I'm a "contrarian"....I tend to get worried when its 'very bullish' in the markets (not based on any rational line of thought heh).
 
It makes sense. It just sometimes takes years for a bear thesis to play out. Michael Burry himself started shorting the market in 2005. It did not go very well for a long long time.
 
oscarheyman said:
I guess I'm a "contrarian"....I tend to get worried when its 'very bullish' in the markets (not based on any rational line of thought heh).
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Me too. It makes me very uneasy. Last time I truly felt that way was early 2021 when NFTs, Gamestop, and every other POS went to the moon. I felt all sorts of anxiety about that. We've never really got to that point since, however.. but there is a feeling of bullish sentiment across investors these days.
 
Preston said:
Me too. It makes me very uneasy. Last time I truly felt that way was early 2021 when NFTs, Gamestop, and every other POS went to the moon. I felt all sorts of anxiety about that. We've never really got to that point since, however.. but there is a feeling of bullish sentiment across investors these days.
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Not the past week or so. Apple crushed on positive news, everything red since.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Not the past week or so. Apple crushed on positive news, everything red since.
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Kind of but it feels like this dip isn't creating the fear that any dip has caused in the last several months... And this isn't everything but the GREED INDEX still shows that we're nearly at EXTREME GREED. Most of my feed is people casually buying the shit out of this weekly consolidation.. It's more likely than not to age well but I find it interesting how bullish general sentiment seems to be.

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After being on the sidelines for months, I went mildly aggressive with putz (SPY, AMD. TSLA) around the same time zeke was celebrating Biden’s bull market over in the American Politics thread. Nothing against zeke (or Biden for that matter) but when a market trend starts to make headlines, it’s time to fade it short term

For the rest of the year, I have no bias. If a GOAT billionaire trader like Druckenmiller says the next 18 months are hard to handicap, who am I to argue?

If I had to guess, I think 2023 will end up in the green but with some spectacular meltdowns ahead that will scare everyone to pieces. Much like 1987 that everyone remembers for it’s spectacular one day crash (but still enjoyed a positive year(
 
CH1 said:
After being on the sidelines for months, I went mildly aggressive with putz (SPY, AMD. TSLA) around the same time zeke was celebrating Biden’s bull market over in the American Politics thread. Nothing against zeke (or Biden for that matter) but when a market trend starts to make headlines, it’s time to fade it short term

For the rest of the year, I have no bias. If a GOAT billionaire trader like Druckenmiller says the next 18 months are hard to handicap, who am I to argue?

If I had to guess, I think 2023 will end up in the green but with some spectacular meltdowns ahead that will scare everyone to pieces. Much like 1987 that everyone remembers for it’s spectacular one day crash (but still enjoyed a positive year(
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That really did feel like the top. Sad that I didn't act on it. Good move.
 
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