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LeafOfFaith said:
Are they though?

Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Google, Facebook - all with PEs around 24 to low 30's.

I wouldn't count Tesla as a magnificent anything (other than a lost opportunity a few years ago), not my cup of tea, and at 67. Nvidia is at 40. Amazon is around 60. Those are somewhat high relative to the others.

But 20s to 30s isn't all that high when we consider some of these guys were in the hundreds not that long ago before earnings caught up. Netflix wasn't even profitable until a handful of years ago. I'm comfortable with these, and if one was smart to get into them long ago when they were already huge players, they'd be holding them at a price point with a super low PE, if that makes sense.

The next tier of companies have been hammered and still have high PEs, or no PEs. I'd still feel as safe in one of the big boys as I would in any other stock out there, more than banks and energy and whatever other "conservative" holdings, you name it. Wish I didn't dabble in this tier (or at least got out when I was at several times my cost) and put my full focus in the biggest names.

TLDR, my initial statement still stands.
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I don't know, I don't really value PE. I just like this twitter account and the tweet reminded me of that post you made.

Always felt to me like the blue chips were gonna tank or the rest of the market was gonna catch up since a few stocks have held up the entire market this year really. The gap between them has never been so large. And that can continue for some time, but I'd wager it tightens up again eventually back to historical standards.


Also beating analyst expectations doesn't make a stock cheap. It's easy to fall into that trap so I'd be careful there. And FWIW historically, about 70-80% of earnings on the S&P 500 are beats on estimates so it's not necessarily a surprise either. Analysts will usually go conservative + companies guide conservatively.

In conclusion,

 
Sure, but it wasn't the fact that they beat, but by how much, that I was making reference to.

Point being that they're expected to perform by some measure generally accepted by the market, and they blow well past it, conservatively guided or not.

I realize PE isn't the be all end all, but I've always liked it. In fact, I wish I didn't discount it as much as I used to before, as it would've saved me from some bad moves. I value it more today than when I was more actively buying.

No idea where this market goes, or where the blue chips will go, as there's fear even at the best of times, but they still feel like the safe bets when it comes to anything outside a GIC/CD. Not necessarily as a buy in now, but even now if the time horizon is eternity.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
I mean, just look at Facebook after the close - EPS beats by $0.76 and revenues beat by $700M.

These are massive beats, and the uptick of like $8 right now (which doesn't even take it up to where it was like a few days ago) is paltry compared to what it would've been a couple of years ago for something like this ($30 or $40, I'd say).
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META is now 297. +200 where it was last October.

It's had a great run.
 
Not to say a devastating one week crash event can’t happen. Everyone is right eventually

I mentioned months ago that Sept/Oct prior to election years can be painful and that aforementioned October 87 parallel is downright spooky — the first half of 1987 was super bullish before the market enjoyed its worst one day event (-23% Black Monday) but then recovered to finish plus for the year.

Of course, too many people are talking about it now so it’s unlikely history will repeat
 
CH1 said:
Good old Peter. Has predicted a crash for decades. Is he still pumping Gold $5000
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He's the first economic doomsayer i became familiar with, maybe 20 years ago now.

We were supposed to be feasting on the organs of our enemies in a dystopian wasteland by now according to him, and only those who held physical gold were going to avoid seeing their women sold off as chattel
 
MindzEye said:
He's the first economic doomsayer i became familiar with, maybe 20 years ago now.

We were supposed to be feasting on the organs of our enemies in a dystopian wasteland by now according to him, and only those who held physical gold were going to avoid seeing their women sold off as chattel
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there's always next year
 
MindzEye said:
We were supposed to be feasting on the organs of our enemies in a dystopian wasteland by now according to him, and only those who held physical gold were going to avoid seeing their women sold off as chattel
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I mean, if he were to shadow Jonas for a day, wouldn't he witness exactly that, but with him more than happy to get rid of any female chattel?
 
LeafOfFaith said:
These are massive beats, and the uptick of like $8 right now (which doesn't even take it up to where it was like a few days ago) is paltry compared to what it would've been a couple of years ago for something like this ($30 or $40, I'd say).
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And of course, now it's down $10. Yay.
 
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