Hey Nerds: Blockchain

[Preston]

By the way, I’ve come to believe that my strategy of buy hold on individual stocks was a good one, but I fucked it up by going with anything other than blue chips. Like, just holding Google, Microsoft, Apple, etc., is kinda the best pseudo ETF you could find because there’s no garbage among the bunch. I’d be off highs but not down on anything if those are all I had bought. I have some of those, but shouldn’t have strayed by throwing money at smaller companies I thought were good gambles - even though they were temporarily and I sat around and idly watched 2x or more just fade away into the ether.

It's a unique situation tho. Never have the blue chips diverged so much from the rest of the market. They have quite literally carried the market this year in a way that hasn't really happened before. Most names out there just haven't looked great for a long time.

So now we'll see what happens. Does the rest of the market catch up? Do the blue chippers crash? Is the divergence The New Normal?

I'm personally under the impression that there is so much trash tech out there that we sort of need a wipe out so I don't necessarily think a pullback or crash here is unhealthy, big picture.

 

[MindzEye]

Ty. I think it's about time I explore something like this. I have my general etfs but lots of spare cash that I need to deploy. Just haven't had a chance to do any digging. Last time I took your advice was in the early pages of this thread and it quite literally transformed my life for the better so I'm happy to explore further now that you recommend it too.

The only thing I will promise is that this is way, way more boring though....YMMV...there are some insane high div stocks out there to chase as well, up into the 30%+ yield range if you have the stomache for it. I don't anymore, so I pass on that. It's relatively easy to build a mix of decent yield div MNC's (energy is nice and pays 4-5% pretty easily) and then balance that out with some riskier shit like REIT's that often pay into the mid teen's. There's some good monthly div ETF's as well.

 

[Preston]

The only thing I will promise is that this is way, way more boring though....YMMV...there are some insane high div stocks out there to chase as well, up into the 30%+ yield range if you have the stomache for it. I don't anymore, so I pass on that. It's relatively easy to build a mix of decent yield div MNC's (energy is nice and pays 4-5% pretty easily) and then balance that out with some riskier shit like REIT's that often pay into the mid teen's. There's some good monthly div ETF's as well.

I'm looking for boring. I've completely reshaped my strategy since 2021 now that I'm in a different spot, though admittedly when weed is hot I can't stay away. So I'll probably continue to allocate some money for that. But for the majority of my funds, boring is great.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

It's a unique situation tho. Never have the blue chips diverged so much from the rest of the market. They have quite literally carried the market this year in a way that hasn't really happened before. Most names out there just haven't looked great for a long time.

So now we'll see what happens. Does the rest of the market catch up? Do the blue chippers crash? Is the divergence The New Normal?

I'm personally under the impression that there is so much trash tech out there that we sort of need a wipe out so I don't necessarily think a pullback or crash here is unhealthy, big picture.

Yeah, one of the banks came out today and said they think the blue chips will catch-down to the rest now, which would suck. I think there's always been a lot of trash tech out there personally, but I feel there's this upper-middle tier of certain tech stocks where they may or may not be trash, and if they're not, they could be big winners in the future. But it's unclear which will succeed. My mistake was trying to pick a few winners from that bunch (granted I was right on all of them for a while, some longer than others, and still don't hold any that I consider losers, but it will take time for them to reassert themselves, if they ever do, and my patience and optimism are all but gone). Instead, I should've just gone all in on the blue chips and dividend champs.

Speaking of, a potentially really great opportunity seems to be building if someone wants to buy into the dividend kings out there. They're all hovering around their 5 year lows right now, and seem poised to drop further.

 

[MindzEye]

I'm personally under the impression that there is so much trash tech out there that we sort of need a wipe out so I don't necessarily think a pullback or crash here is unhealthy

+1

I don't agree with Chamath about very much, but he's right about how the VC model is badly broken in tech. They don't actually invest in making anything new anymore.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

The power of compounding numbers and the simplicity of not worrying about it. Quarterly div comes in, buys stock, div is slightly higher in 3 months, rinse and repeat.

I'm a bit of a different cat, so the plan is to tap out on all the bullshit as long before 50 as I can with less total value than most retirement portfolios are suggested to have (especially for "retiring" at my age), but all of it being income driven. I wished I would have had this outlook before the cannabis rush, I would have been done before 40. Between relatively stable div income, and relatively stable commercial real estate income, wifey and I are "done" in 3 years. I intend on continuing to do what I do, but the type of work that I want, when I want as well. More than enough income to live off of (and continue investing into the snowball) and free time to do whatever the fuck we want while we're young enough to enjoy it. YMMV.

I just think the auto invest option is good if you have no time or energy to follow the market, but if you do, why let it invest for you, when you could just invest yourself on the very same day or otherwise refrain until you find a better entry point? I don't like the idea of my dividends going to purchase at high share prices.

Did you already snatch up the commercial real estate, or is that on the horizon still? Canadian property or something where you aren't physically residing?

 

[MindzEye]

but if you do, why let it invest for you, when you could just invest yourself on the very same day or otherwise refrain until you find a better entry point?

Because study after study shows this to be a fallacy and one of the best ways to lose money.

I don't like the idea of my dividends going to purchase at high share prices.

Again, if you have an insights into whether those prices are high or low, write a book and you'll sell millions of copies. My personal take is simple, whatever you think you know, the market has priced it in. Whatever you don't think the market realizes, the market priced in 2 years ago. When you think you know a better entry price than today's price, you lose money in the end more often than you make money.

There is a small subset of skilled traders who through very disciplined entry/exit strategies can run through the rain without getting wet. I spent some time and learned their kung fu and could probably do it if I wanted that lifestyle, but I don't.

Did you already snatch up the commercial real estate, or is that on the horizon still? Canadian property or something where you aren't physically residing?

We own commercial property in Mexico already and are in the process of significantly expanding it. Will be 6-7 commercial lease units and a few condos when we're done with it in ~24 months, currently it's 3 commercial units but we're putting a few floors on it. Yeah, no plans on physically residing there.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Because study after study shows this to be a fallacy and one of the best ways to lose money.


Again, if you have an insights into whether those prices are high or low, write a book and you'll sell millions of copies. My personal take is simple, whatever you think you know, the market has priced it in. Whatever you don't think the market realizes, the market priced in 2 years ago. When you think you know a better entry price than today's price, you lose money in the end more often than you make money.

There is a small subset of skilled traders who through very disciplined entry/exit strategies can run through the rain without getting wet. I spent some time and learned their kung fu and could probably do it if I wanted that lifestyle, but I don't.



We own commercial property in Mexico already and are in the process of significantly expanding it. Will be 6-7 commercial lease units and a few condos when we're done with it in ~24 months, currently it's 3 commercial units but we're putting a few floors on it. Yeah, no plans on physically residing there.

Regarding drip, it doesn't take a genius to look at a stock and see it sitting at its near term high and thinking maybe it wouldn't be the best move to use the dividends to buy more of it at that moment. There are other dividend stocks that might be off their highs and paying out a better yield at that time. I mean, it's more about evaluating the current at that time, not so much predicting the future.

Nice job on the property. I'd want to be physically present wherever I owned real estate, but obviously that's just a personal preference tied to thinking I should be able to see and touch it.

 

[MindzEye]

Regarding drip, it doesn't take a genius to look at a stock and see it sitting at its near term high and thinking maybe it wouldn't be the best move to use the dividends to buy more of it at that moment. There are other dividend stocks that might be off their highs and paying out a better yield at that time. I mean, it's more about evaluating the current at that time, not so much predicting the future.

You and I fundamentally disagree with what a "high" is.

What I'm trying to say is that whether a stock is "high" or "low" is unknowable. The most you can "know" is what direction it's currently heading in up to and including today. For those who want to trade the trend, they're welcome to. If a stock's market price fluctuates, but the company keeps paying their div and does it with healthy books, let it fluctuate, I don't care. As long as I don't stay in dog shit companies with bad books, over a longer time horizon, I'm fine short of actual armageddon or if the Norse people's were right, Ragnarok happening.

Nice job on the property. I'd want to be physically present wherever I owned real estate, but obviously that's just a personal preference tied to thinking I should be able to see and touch it.

It's what our management company takes 10 points for at the moment. But yes, eventually it will be self managed. It's a 45 minute flight away from where we're looking to live and one of the condos will be kept as a short term rental so we can use it however we need if we're in town, or a friend/family needs a place to stay, etc.

 

[CH1]

Timing is just hubris.

Higher prices begets higher prices (for solid businesses anyway) ie how many new 52 week highs has AAPL pulled off in its lifetime?

Lower prices work the same way. Look at Ford. Low p/e, 4% Div, trading just a couple bucks per share than what it’s holding in cash. The market is basically saying they expect them to go out of business in 5 years

 

[MindzEye]

Timing is just hubris.

Higher prices begets higher prices (for solid businesses anyway) ie how many new 52 week highs has AAPL pulled off in its lifetime?

Lower prices work the same way. Look at Ford. Low p/e, 4% Div, trading just a couple bucks per share than what it’s holding in cash. The market is basically saying they expect them to go out of business in 5 years

Fun fact. Tesla and Ford both expect profits of approx 12 Billion this year.

Tesla's market cap is 772 Billion. Ford's is 48 Billion. Both make their money building cars and earn roughly the same amount of profit doing so.

I'm not trying to make it make sense. Just pay me rent for my ownership dollars and keep making money.

 

[CH1]

It’s insane. I’d be personally surprised if Ford closes up shop but the people who get paid to study the sector have different ideas

 

[CH1]

Of course, cash yields are closing in on 5% which is a game changer

 

[Preston]

This ain't your granpappys stock market

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Of course, cash yields are closing in on 5% which is a game changer

Yup, except for one purchase in the last two years when I got rid of the rest of the mj trash in favor of a dividend stock at its 12 year low, the rest of my cash I've just put into CDs between 4.75% and 4.9% at my bank.

 

[GEEMAN]

Yup, except for one purchase in the last two years when I got rid of the rest of the mj trash in favor of a dividend stock at its 12 year low, the rest of my cash I've just put into CDs between 4.75% and 4.9% at my bank.

Yup , cashed out of oil a few years ago and doing the same

 

[MindzEye]

Of course, cash yields are closing in on 5% which is a game changer

Yup. Yield of 3 yr mexican bonds are 11% as well

 

[Preston]

By the way, I’ve come to believe that my strategy of buy hold on individual stocks was a good one, but I fucked it up by going with anything other than blue chips. Like, just holding Google, Microsoft, Apple, etc., is kinda the best pseudo ETF you could find because there’s no garbage among the bunch. I’d be off highs but not down on anything if those are all I had bought. I have some of those, but shouldn’t have strayed by throwing money at smaller companies I thought were good gambles - even though they were temporarily and I sat around and idly watched 2x or more just fade away into the ether.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Are they though?

Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Google, Facebook - all with PEs around 24 to low 30's.

I wouldn't count Tesla as a magnificent anything (other than a lost opportunity a few years ago), not my cup of tea, and at 67. Nvidia is at 40. Amazon is around 60. Those are somewhat high relative to the others.

But 20s to 30s isn't all that high when we consider some of these guys were in the hundreds not that long ago before earnings caught up. Netflix wasn't even profitable until a handful of years ago. I'm comfortable with these, and if one was smart to get into them long ago when they were already huge players, they'd be holding them at a price point with a super low PE, if that makes sense.

The next tier of companies have been hammered and still have high PEs, or no PEs. I'd still feel as safe in one of the big boys as I would in any other stock out there, more than banks and energy and whatever other "conservative" holdings, you name it. Wish I didn't dabble in this tier (or at least got out when I was at several times my cost) and put my full focus in the biggest names.

TLDR, my initial statement still stands.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

I mean, just look at Facebook after the close - EPS beats by $0.76 and revenues beat by $700M.

These are massive beats, and the uptick of like $8 right now (which doesn't even take it up to where it was like a few days ago) is paltry compared to what it would've been a couple of years ago for something like this ($30 or $40, I'd say).

There's safety in the behemoths. Wish I had all of them.