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And then there is of course other risk too. "Big" (big is relative in this sector) money is currently unwinding their AAWH position and outpacing the ETF purchases for the moment. The lack of liquidity can be a blessing or a strength and it goes in both directions. People with large positions will take profits on some of these manufactured rips!
 
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@CH1 I won't be able to tell till later but I think the etf is selling $MSOS three largest holdings. Trul, Cura, GTII. Everything else is blasting. And the msos etf is being suppressed because of the selling done to its largest holdings.

I think they're buying literally everything else. Verano, Cresco, Terrascend, AAWH etc.


This is fucking hilarious.
 
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MSOS: flat
GTII: -4%
TRUL: -1.5%
CURA: -5%


AAWH: +8%
CBST: +7%
VRNO: +7%
CL: +11.5%
JUSH: +11%
TSND: +7.5%
MRMD: +22.5%


Totally normal day. The entire week is likely fucked; in the past the rebalancing can take 5-10 trading days if I recall and this is just day 2. I'll confirm later if they're indeed selling the big 3. And if they are, there will undoubtedly be a big buying opportunity on the big 3 when they're done (I can likely extrapolate when that is based on historical rebalancing events). Last time this happened TRUL bounced 20-30% rapidly. But it does depend on overall sector and broader market health. Can't be another Japan dump or something or we may not see immediately recovery.
 
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Feb was unique because they decided the wanted to hold less TRUL and restructured their holdings (I think TRUL went from 20% of the ETF holdings to under 10% if I recall.. Dumb as fuck). So it was aggressive; way more aggressive than today was (if my Thumb selling theory is even right; it may not be!). Here's the chart:

1723494570020.png

-30% in the first 3 days of rebalancing. Then buyers came in despite the clear volume/selling pressure and it held $11 for the final 6 days (the last 2 days had much less selling pressure). Then within 3 days of the rebalancing completion, TRUL popped 30% while names that the ETF bought dumped.

Doesn't mean it'll happen again and it doesn't mean they're gonna buy/sell the same stocks every day. But it's worth keeping an eye on it. I have some reservations that it was even the ETF that was selling the bigger names because volume isn't quite that crazy. But they were definitely buying a bunch of other shit!


Mickey Mouse sector requires Mickey Mouse strategizing and market inefficiency exploitation.
 
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That was for 2020/2021 but it felt like half the planet made a killing then so we're not so special; the bigger piece of shit you held, the better you did. It was the era of stupid people getting rich.

I haven't been that active since, mostly just preserving what I made 3-4 years ago, low risk trades only and tracking the index. But occasionally assymetric opportunities come and I get excited. It's a goofy sector with rules that don't apply elsewhere because of stupid things like an ETF selling taking up 75% of sells of a stock for two weeks and then stopping abruptly. Or the opposite, buying and then stopping. Truth be told I don't know how to play actual real stocks like CH1 does so I don't even try. This is just easier for me. I'm lazy.
 
Ya.... I had plenty of time during COVID to trade. Now I just dabble with SPY futures (long or short) on days when the market looks stretched that also happen to be slow work days. TBH, I find monitoring the markets daily takes a huge amount of mental/emotional capital.

I found it manageable in 2020/21 because everything else was so fucked up and entire lives were spent staring at screens (market or otherwise)

Now, outside of RRSP/TFSA i have a small trading account which I try to stack enough wins to withdraw money from every few months. It's my version of other people's fantasy football/sports gambling.
 
CH1 said:
Ya.... I had plenty of time during COVID to trade. Now I just dabble with SPY futures (long or short) on days when the market looks stretched that also happen to be slow work days. TBH, I find monitoring the markets daily takes a huge amount of mental/emotional capital.

I found it manageable in 2020/21 because everything else was so fucked up and entire lives were spent staring at screens (market or otherwise)

Now, outside of RRSP/TFSA i have a small trading account which I try to stack enough wins to withdraw money from every few months. It's my version of other people's fantasy football/sports gambling.
Click to expand...
It's the worst. To maintain optimal emotional capital and even to maintain my performance, I need frequent breaks. Probably more than most. I'm locked in right now but in a couple months I likely won't be. I come and go based on opportunities I observe from afar.
 
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With that said I purchased 7 lambos and 14 beach side mansions from my endeavors so everyone should definitely be jealous.
 
So with weed it's just one day of action. If similar selling/buying continues into today then it becomes a potential pattern and not just a one off. By day 3 I'm convinced. Keep an eye on ffnt. Could be a low hanging fruit opportunity. Down 34% yesterday. They sold a lot of it. If that continues, when it bottoms it's for sure a buy. If it already bottomed then it was a buy yesterday. But typically these rebalancing things aren't one offs. We shall see!
 
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