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Hey Nerds: Blockchain

went long at ES 3900, out +10...that level 3900 was a magnet, same with NQ at 12780...

still have a few SPY puts in case we have am weakness but I feel like we're pretty close to seeing a nice bounce; but who the fuk knows.
Triple Witching Op/ex week is often a mindfuk

bot GTII at the close under 44....because I LIKE THE STOCK
 
MSOs held up well today but another day like this and the dam will surely break despite the flood of good news for them. Would absolutely love to see a triple witching bounce tomorrow. If there was ever a time for a panic induced xtrends-esque avalanche of selling, it would be tomorrow. But really it could go either way. Exciting times.
 
I can't tell, do you guys respect that twitterista or not?

And seriously, why do the yields have this impact on tech? I'm a buyer of semi-risky growth stocks. Why the fuck do I care if bond yields have gone up? Why am I not selling everything in a panic?
 
LeafOfFaith said:
I honestly don't understand the connection between them.

Like why does a rise in interest rates spell doom for tech? I don't get it. Are people going to rush to the lush pastures of a 1.5% return or whatever the **** it is that's so much better than the 1% or sub 1% it was at? Like why would people sell high growth tech in droves to rush into garbage nonexistent returns?
Click to expand...

it's not about predicting doom...it's about rerating the price/sales multiple for high tech growth

take one of your faves CRWD....or one of mine ROKU...they are trading at historically aggressive multiples (whether it's price/earnings, price/sales) and so rapid growth is priced in..... part of the reason they can grow so quickly, is that the cost of capital is zero so they can use cheap $$ to fund their expansion plans. when the cost of capital goes up, investors don't want to pay the same multiple.

at least that's the way I make sense of it
 
Don't forget sentiment..and what people are willing to pay for earnings. In 2018, this analyst (I forget who) guessed all of AAPL's revenue down to a tee (iPhone, iPad, services, etc) but he got the stock price completely wrong because he didn't anticipate that investors would be willing to pay 75% more for the same amount of AAPL earnings as the year prior.

tl;dr there is no "proper price" for any of this shit....it's just supply vs demand with occasional bouts of extreme euphoria or depression
 
CH1 said:
it's not about predicting doom...it's about rerating the price/sales multiple for high tech growth

take one of your faves CRWD....or one of mine ROKU...they are trading at historically aggressive multiples (whether it's price/earnings, price/sales) and so rapid growth is priced in..... part of the reason they can grow so quickly, is that the cost of capital is zero so they can use cheap $$ to fund their expansion plans. when the cost of capital goes up, investors don't want to pay the same multiple.

at least that's the way I make sense of it
Click to expand...
I mean, I thought that too, that debt will be more expensive, but the impact of that on businesses growing revenues at the rate they are should be meaningless. At least when you're talking about such a small spike up in the rates. If it shot up like 3% or something, ok, I get the selloff, but who cares about this? I'd say it creates buying opportunities, but not for me because I'm not looking to buy more this much higher than my current basis.

Edit - I guess it's potentially creating an opportunity in ZM, but where is that "proper price"??
 
And ch1 vouches for the twitter guy. Apparently he has a great track record. I know less of him but he seems to be respected.
 
CH1 said:
Don't forget sentiment..and what people are willing to pay for earnings. In 2018, this analyst (I forget who) guessed all of AAPL's revenue down to a tee (iPhone, iPad, services, etc) but he got the stock price completely wrong because he didn't anticipate that investors would be willing to pay 75% more for the same amount of AAPL earnings as the year prior.

tl;dr there is no "proper price" for any of this shit....it's just supply vs demand with occasional bouts of extreme euphoria or depression
Click to expand...
Apple's earnings didn't rise from 2018 to 2019? I don't remember that. Feels like there's been monster growth every quarter and EPS was going up in a big way.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
I mean, I thought that too, that debt will be more expensive, but the impact of that on businesses growing revenues at the rate they are should be meaningless. At least when you're talking about such a small spike up in the rates. If it shot up like 3% or something, ok, I get the selloff, but who cares about this? I'd say it creates buying opportunities, but not for me because I'm not looking to buy more this much higher than my current basis.

Edit - I guess it's potentially creating an opportunity in ZM, but where is that "proper price"??
Click to expand...
doesn't exist...if you ask Josh Brown, he might say $280 is his "all in" price....ask Buffett and he might get interested at $85
 
Preston said:
And ch1 vouches for the twitter guy. Apparently he has a great track record. I know less of him but he seems to be respected.
Click to expand...

He's made some life changing calls (for him)...he used to post on a blog I used to participate in called Slope of Hope.
Called the top and bottom a few times to the tick....Not that I think any of that success is repeatable but I still like to keep an eye on his musings.

This time last year, I went super bearish and not only avoided the meltdown but juiced up my LT folio -- he was one off the few bears back then also.

For the record, I am not super bearish right now...I have hedges for protection...but I am taking it level to level. We could print all time highs next month, for all I know
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Apple's earnings didn't rise from 2018 to 2019? I don't remember that. Feels like there's been monster growth every quarter and EPS was going up in a big way.
Click to expand...

My point was that depending on sentiment, investors are willing to pay different multiples for the same dollar of earnings. Often, there is no rhyme or reason to it.

This chart might be useful to you.

Screen Shot 2021-03-18 at 5.36.06 PM.png
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Well yeah, that's why I put it in quotes. It's all about a feeling you have individually.
Click to expand...

yes...and more accurately, it's about how confident you are that someone will pay more for your ZM shares in the future
 
CH1 said:
He's made some life changing calls (for him)...he used to post on a blog I used to participate in called Slope of Hope.
Called the top and bottom a few times to the tick....Not that I think any of that success is repeatable but I still like to keep an eye on his musings.

This time last year, I went super bearish and not only avoided the meltdown but juiced up my LT folio -- he was one off the few bears back then also.

For the record, I am not super bearish right now...I have hedges for protection...but I am taking it level to level. We could print all time highs next month, for all I know
Click to expand...
Yeah he's clearly good so it's worth listening to. Also worth noting that he appears to have been a very late bull last year. Was still heavy bearish for most of the year it seems.
 
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