Hey Nerds: Blockchain

[CH1]

Yeah he's clearly good so it's worth listening to. Also worth noting that he appears to have been a very late bull last year. Was still heavy bearish for most of the year it seems.

yeah...I was also guilty of wearing my bear suit for too long; but scooping up MSOs, and the likes of ROKU/PTON/PINS saved my hide

 

[Preston]

Personally hoping my long-term puts don't pay and xtrends is wrong but I would say a 20-30+% downward move wouldn't exactly be unwarranted. Market could use a clean-up on many names.

Seems like xtrends despises Cathie and thinks she holds garbage. That, I'm less sure about. I agree that many speculative names will never see their highs again but idk enough about her picks But he's right that she'd get crushed on any market meltdown obviously.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

I really don't see the basis for any meltdown.

The vaccines will be fully administered soon. They've already opened up indoor eating in LA. The stimulus checks are being sent out. Companies are smashing earnings somehow. I guess they want to point to inflation, but I'm just not seeing the reason for negative sentiment on an overall basis.

 

[CH1]

Cathie's stocks already corrected 25-30%...the play here is --- do you believe the correction among the market's biggest winners will spill over to the general market?

The DOW is doing quite well...but that's not usually a good omen.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

yes...and more accurately, it's about how confident you are that someone will pay more for your ZM shares in the future

It's funny, when selling isn't even on the radar, you don't really think in those terms. It's more about what can ZM be in the future versus what it is now, and is the market right in bidding something to where it is, or has it gone too far. For instance, I think TSLA is a joke. I don't care what anyone says and I'm happy to not take the risk and be wrong.

 

[CH1]

I really don't see the basis for any meltdown.

The vaccines will be fully administered soon. They've already opened up indoor eating in LA. The stimulus checks are being sent out. Companies are smashing earnings somehow. I guess they want to point to inflation, but I'm just not seeing the reason for negative sentiment on an overall basis.

that was priced in 6 months ago, tho

the market does not wait for good news to rally

 

[Preston]

Cathie's stocks already corrected 25-30%...the play here is --- do you believe the correction among the market's biggest winners will spill over to the general market?

The DOW is doing quite well...but that's not usually a good omen.

View attachment 8639

Yeah last I checked his analysis was that her stocks will never recover and this is only the tip of the iceberg for her.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Cathie's stocks already corrected 25-30%...the play here is --- do you believe the correction among the market's biggest winners will spill over to the general market?

The DOW is doing quite well...but that's not usually a good omen.

View attachment 8639

Yeah, if anything, I feel the Dow stocks have gotten ahead of themselves and the Nasdaq darlings have been punished way too severely.

AAPL, FB, and ZM are front of mind right now. All demolished earnings and expectations, but all crushed since they reported. Meanwhile, all the value plays that are doing nothing (other than having people think that a reopening will take them to the top floor) are getting bought in bunches. But is it more likely that United and American won't ever see a return to the same levels of business travel pre-covid or that ZM will suddenly see its users disappear because companies are thrilled to send employees on all expense paid trips that could be avoided with simple video calls like they have been in the past year? I know which I would bet on.

 

[Preston]

Crushing earnings is fine but it doesn't mean they're worth what they're currently priced at. From a historical standpoint in terms of how these things are usually valued on average, these stocks deserve a far harsher punishment.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

that was priced in 6 months ago, tho

the market does not wait for good news to rally

I don't believe in the pricing in from a million years ago theory as much as most do. Sure, we knew vaccines were around the corner, but when would they arrive, how effective would they be, how would the variants play in, etc.? These questions are mostly unanswered, so they can't properly be priced in. I think there's still a premium attached to something actually happening versus being expected to happen.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Crushing earnings is fine but it doesn't mean they're worth what they're currently priced at. From a historical standpoint in terms of how these things are usually valued on average, these stocks deserve a far harsher punishment.

I'm not going to pretend to be a numbers guys, but I focus on the basics, and when I see a company growing revenues by 25%, 50%, 100%, whatever, and then still beat expectations every quarter, I know as much as possible without a time machine at my disposal that its PE will be dramatically shaved down in short order, so who cares when? Take Netflix - this was the most overheated, impossible to ever deliver company in the world according to so many anal-ysts just a couple of years ago. No PE because it was still losing money. Now its PE is just 52. Apple's is 28. FB is 24. It's going to be joining those guys within the next twelve months probably.

As long as you can identify a high flyer with a product/service with almost insatiable demand and with revenues going up in big jumps quarter to quarter, it's just a matter of where to buy in, not if.

 

[CH1]

Yeah last I checked his analysis was that her stocks will never recover and this is only the tip of the iceberg for her.

As someone who owns many of her stocks (ROKU, PINS, NVTA, PSNL) I can see them not revisiting their highs for 3 years. It's why I reduced my positions substantially. They are still great businesses/companies but sometimes the stock price gets ahead of itself.

Obviously, this is not 2000, but when all those Internet Stocks lost 80% of their value (including AMZN), it didn't mean the Internet age was over...

The current euphoria is not as zany as 2000 -- but my point is that you can be bullish about a company's prospects but bearish on the stock price...

So Cathie might be right that TSLA is going to change the world....but the stock may have peaked. We'll only know in hindsight.

 

[Preston]

As someone who owns many of her stocks (ROKU, PINS, NVTA, PSNL) I can see them not revisiting their highs for 3 years. It's why I reduced my positions substantially. They are still great businesses/companies but sometimes the stock price gets ahead of itself.

Obviously, this is not 2000, but when all those Internet Stocks lost 80% of their value (including AMZN), it didn't mean the Internet age was over...

The current euphoria is not as zany as 2000 -- but my point is that you can be bullish about a company's prospects but bearish on the stock price...

So Cathie might be right that TSLA is going to change the world....but the stock may have peaked. We'll only know in hindsight.

That's where I'm at. The "stonks only go up market" has been going on for too long. None of that is sustainable. A substantial downdraft isn't a bad thing at all. All part of a healthy economic cycle that makes the world go round. And this time we may not get that ridiculous v-shaped recovery. And that's fine.

 

[Preston]

Of course we can also do another 20+% from here but if anything that's scarier for me because it would only create a more ridiculous bubble which means the downdraft may be harsher.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

As someone who owns many of her stocks (ROKU, PINS, NVTA, PSNL) I can see them not revisiting their highs for 3 years. It's why I reduced my positions substantially. They are still great businesses/companies but sometimes the stock price gets ahead of itself.

Obviously, this is not 2000, but when all those Internet Stocks lost 80% of their value (including AMZN), it didn't mean the Internet age was over...

The current euphoria is not as zany as 2000 -- but my point is that you can be bullish about a company's prospects but bearish on the stock price...

So Cathie might be right that TSLA is going to change the world....but the stock may have peaked. We'll only know in hindsight.

I agree with all that. I will say though that the SPACs kinda feel like the internet IPOs back then. One every day and all sorts of excitement over it, like all of them must be winners, when many or most of them won't be. That's the one similarity I see.

 

[CH1]

No longer private (as expected)

 

[Preston]

Holy this guy is king of hyperbole. Never understood bears who go all in like this. He's a smart guy and should know he's more likely to be wrong about these once in a lifetime dips that he's constantly predicting. Basic statistics, buddy. Be open to the idea but don't go balls deep in it. Your odds of being right at any given time suck balls.

Oh well. The market needs bears. I don't mind it.

 

[CH1]

those are not even his most hyperbolic tweets LOL

I think I replied to him once suggesting he look at MSOs....crickets

 

[CH1]

Part of the appeal of the bear side, is of course, the potential for quick riches.

Today's action was a blast (if you had puts),

Bull markets tend to grind up while bear markets plunge with reckless abandon.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

I have never shorted or bought puts on anything, so I can't even imagine something good coming out of huge down days like this.