Hey Nerds: Blockchain
- Thread starter zeke
- Start date
wolverine88
Active member
i started following him as well a few weeks back. part of my cash reserves are just there if/when i need to buy a whole buncha puts
Preston
MBow30 alt account
That's what I like about this xtrends guy. Doesn't seem to predict timelines. I fucking hate when people predict timelines. It's usually my tell that they're frauds. He's providing a spicy take without telling us when it'll happen. I like that. Long-term puts are the way she goes imo.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
I have such a Buffett mindset of always bet on America / never bet against America, that I have a hard time being bearish. And I'm feeling like maybe I'm overextending myself lately. I usually only set up two positions per year, and I've done more than that the last twelve months and actively looking at a few others. Granted though, the size of the latest positions are smaller, so maybe that should offset my concern, but still, I do always have that voice in my ear telling me to pull back and take it slow.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
That's why I want to grab puts along with cash. I'd probably blow my load way too early if the nazzy dumped fucking 80%. I had two more tranches I was ready to buy last year. Some at 200 and some at 180 on SPY. After that, I would have been all in and while I would have made it out way ahead in the end even if spy dumped another 15-20%, I would have been homeless due to my emotional capital losses.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
it's all about timeframes...the market has always roared back, stronger than ever. Even if you had invested only at the top, you eventually get paid....even more-so if you keep buying during the nasty headlines. Buffett could afford to wait through those periods...many people can't.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
the bullish behaviour we're seeing is just not stocks....it's crypto...it's digital art....baseball cards....basketball highlights.
SHIT IS INSANE....but I don't know when it stops...probably when people accept it as the new normal and you hear "This time is different" every single day
Preston
MBow30 alt account
This is what scares me. Every piece of shit is off the walls and people are convincing themselves that they're great investments. Even draftkings, who I love, has serious question marks if you look at their valuation. I think they've blown their load a bit too early but they're nowhere near alone.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
this article about owning and trading NBA highlight clips is a must read... you guys will love it
https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2021/02/23/im-in-the-mania/
https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2021/02/23/im-in-the-mania/
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
I hope so...we need our day in the uplisting sun before we go hibernate with the smart bears
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
That's the thing - I think a lot of the nontraditional stuff is a pure bubble. I just don't know how, say Bitcoin cratering, might trash the broader market. I'm too much of an optimist, but I'm also seeing monster numbers reported by the companies I own. There's no pullback, and while some might be richly valued, they are growing like wildfire. It's hard to take that observation and think that some event even more powerful than a global fucking pandemic that shut down the world for a year and counting, would be big enough to tank companies that are absolutely killing it.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
manias have happened throughout history tho....beanie babies were the craze during the 90s.
At one point, they represented 10% of eBay's sales.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Yes business is good, yes growth is great, but I think the market is blowing their load far too much right now in terms of how these companies are valued as is usually the case in any healthy economic cycle. Euphoria is fun but it doesn't often end well. But it could last a lot longer than this too!
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
yeah...the dotcom crash involved a bunch of stupid companies with no business model....and some like Amazon that were too early...
today's tech companies print money (for the most part) but their valuations are on the aggressive side
ultimately, I see it as a supply/demand issue. and I'm seeing a TON OF SUPPLY at the moment....secondaries, spacs, ipos, alt asset classes, etc
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
The longer it lasts, the more these high flying companies grow into their valuations.
I remember talking to this wealth advisor maybe 3 or 4 years ago, and he was talking about Netflix and saying he would NEVER buy it for his clients. He was like, "what P/E, it has no E!" It was like $80 at that time, I think. How the times have changed in just a few years. I think for the winner companies, who have been able to still thrive during the pandemic, they have a smooth runway until either their growth stagnates or some external event (war? more deadly pandemic?) derails it. So I have to go with the bet on America thesis.
I remember talking to this wealth advisor maybe 3 or 4 years ago, and he was talking about Netflix and saying he would NEVER buy it for his clients. He was like, "what P/E, it has no E!" It was like $80 at that time, I think. How the times have changed in just a few years. I think for the winner companies, who have been able to still thrive during the pandemic, they have a smooth runway until either their growth stagnates or some external event (war? more deadly pandemic?) derails it. So I have to go with the bet on America thesis.