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Leaf Rumours

LeafOfFaith said:
AThe issue is whether, if given the choice, we should part with Gunnar or Beauch.
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That's an easy one, you dump Gunnar. I'm not a Beauch fan, I see him as a turnover machine. But Gunnar is unproven, is not playing in the NHL and should not be playing here yet. What has Gunnar shown this year to outplay Beauch? Nothing as far as I can tell..
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Yeah, it's easy to wipe the slate clean and pretend the general consensus wasn't that Kulemin sucked. You certainly do appeal to fabrications and revisionist history, and quite often.

And yes, most certainly some people argued we traded a first liner in Jason Blake. Please don't try to tell me those lengthy and painfully obnoxious debates didn't actually take place.
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Man, LoF, you really to get off the Kulemin obsession. You were not some visionary that saw his amazing potential when all the rest of us dunces thought we should trade him away for some rotten cabbage. From when he was lighting up the Russian leagues, to when he first got to the NHL, he was universally acknowledged by fans on this board as someone who had serious potential to be a solid top-6 forward. The only time people got down on him was when he flat-out sucked in training camp. But even then, there was nobody saying that he didn't still have potential, or that we should dump him---just that those who outplayed him should rightfully play ahead of him until such time that he earned his way back into the lineup. It's like arguing that people who think that Kadri needed to spend time in the minors think that Kadri sucks, and is not a good prospect.

As for Blake, the crux of the argument was you thought he was a totally useless player who should have been in the pressbox, bought out or sent to the Marlies, whereas most people, while they would be happy to be rid of him, acknowledge that he did have at least some use to the team as an offensive player. Especially on a team as crappy as the Leafs.

LeafOfFaith said:
This has to be a joke. A stud defenseman?

This is a guy who has the worst plus minus among our top 6. Kabs, Phaneuf, Schenn, and yes, even Komi and Gunnar, are better in that department. But let me guess, Beauch plays against the other teams' top lines. And none of the other five do, I suppose.

This is also a guy who, offensively, has less points than Kabs, Schenn, and Komi, and is only ahead of Phaneuf (by one) and Gunnar (by two) because those guys have been out of the lineup.

But somehow Beauch is the MVP of the blueline.

Sorry, it's just too much to listen to this stuff.
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It's funny that you say that like it's actually a hugely significant statistic, when these are the numbers:

+0 : Tomas Kaberle
- 2 : Luke Schenn
- 3 : Mike Komisarek
- 4 : Carl Gunnarsson
- 5 : Dion Phaneuf
- 5 : Keith Aulie
- 6 : Francois Beauchemin
-13: Brett Lebda

Considering that all of our defenseman are within a few +/- points of each other, dramatically pointing out that he's got "the worst +/- in our top six" is misleading, and you know it. It's also interesting that your boy Gunnarsson has racked up a -4 to Beauchemin's -6, despite playing 10 fewer games, significantly less minutes in the games that he has played, and yes, against vastly inferior competition than Beauchemin who routinely draws assignments against the other team's top players. And who's saying he's the MVP of the blueline? There's no need to put dumbass hyperbole in other people's mouths when you're in fact the only one spouting ridiculous exaggerations. What's being said is clear: Beauchemin obviously does not suck, is absolutely a top-3 workhorse defenseman, and is most definitely better than Carl Gunnarsson.
 
LeafGm said:
Man, LoF, you really to get off the Kulemin obsession. You were not some visionary that saw his amazing potential when all the rest of us dunces thought we should trade him away for some rotten cabbage. From when he was lighting up the Russian leagues, to when he first got to the NHL, he was universally acknowledged by fans on this board as someone who had serious potential to be a solid top-6 forward. The only time people got down on him was when he flat-out sucked in training camp. But even then, there was nobody saying that he didn't still have potential, or that we should dump him---just that those who outplayed him should rightfully play ahead of him until such time that he earned his way back into the lineup. It's like arguing that people who think that Kadri needed to spend time in the minors think that Kadri sucks, and is not a good prospect.

As for Blake, the crux of the argument was you thought he was a totally useless player who should have been in the pressbox, bought out or sent to the Marlies, whereas most people, while they would be happy to be rid of him, acknowledge that he did have at least some use to the team as an offensive player. Especially on a team as crappy as the Leafs.


It's funny that you say that like it's actually a hugely significant statistic, when these are the numbers:

+0 : Tomas Kaberle
- 2 : Luke Schenn
- 3 : Mike Komisarek
- 4 : Carl Gunnarsson
- 5 : Dion Phaneuf
- 5 : Keith Aulie
- 6 : Francois Beauchemin
-13: Brett Lebda

Considering that all of our defenseman are within a few +/- points of each other, dramatically pointing out that he's got "the worst +/- in our top six" is misleading, and you know it. It's also interesting that your boy Gunnarsson has racked up a -4 to Beauchemin's -6, despite playing 10 fewer games, significantly less minutes in the games that he has played, and yes, against vastly inferior competition than Beauchemin who routinely draws assignments against the other team's top players. And who's saying he's the MVP of the blueline? There's no need to put dumbass hyperbole in other people's mouths when you're in fact the only one spouting ridiculous exaggerations. What's being said is clear: Beauchemin obviously does not suck, is absolutely a top-3 workhorse defenseman, and is most definitely better than Carl Gunnarsson.
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Talk about putting hyperbole in other people's mouths. The point made was, if Beauch is a stud, everyone else on the team is a bigger stud, as his defensive and offensive stats are worst among the group, regardless of by how much.

Is he better than Gunnarson right now? Arguably, but is any aspect of my concern based on right now? No, the opposite - I'm concerned about future seasons, when we may just be competitive. And in view of that future, would I rather bet on Gunnar improving on what can only be considered a rookie season where he showed top 4 skills, or on Beauchemin being any better than the inconsistent guy that he is this season or at worst the liability he was last year? Would I rather part with Beauch's large salary now and spend it on a good young forward in trade or a free agent in the offseason, or would I rather dump Gunnar's cheap contract? Would I rather get more in a trade for Beauchemin (as other teams will no doubt pay more for his overhyped role in the legendary cup run of years ago) or part with Gunnar by selling low before giving him a chance to improve on a really promising start to his career?

I could care less what the prevailing opinion is around here. Fact remains that Gunnar had a better season that Beauchemin last year, as a rookie on a bad team. That means something to me. More than whether he's been kept out of the lineup or been inconsistent this year (likely as a direct result), since Wilson's decisions are more than suspect and pretty much the whole team is badly underperforming (Kessel, Bozak, Phaneuf, Kadri, etc.).

I just can't believe anyone would encourage the trading of yet another promising kid, while we sit in the bottom 5 of the standings, over a marginal vet with just a year to go on a rich deal.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Sure, because seeing as to how all the players being compared play on the same team, the stat means nothing.
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Duncan Keith has by far the worst +/- on the CHI Dcorps at -5. Brian Campbell has by far the best +/- on the CHI Dcorps at +12.

Chris Pronger has the worst +/- on the PHI Dcorps at +6. Andrei Meszaros has the best +/- on the PHI Dcorps at +20.

Nik Lidstrom has the worst +/- on the DET Dcorps at -1. Brian Rafalski has the best +/- on the DET Dcorps at +9.

You tell me exactly what you think this number means. and why.
 
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LeafOfFaith said:
Talk about putting hyperbole in other people's mouths. The point made was, if Beauch is a stud, everyone else on the team is a bigger stud, as his defensive and offensive stats are worst among the group, regardless of by how much.
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When you say "defensive stats", you're relying entirely on +/- as your player evaluation tool for defensemen, and nothing else, right? Just to be clear.

Is he better than Gunnarson right now? Arguably, but is any aspect of my concern based on right now? No, the opposite - I'm concerned about future seasons, when we may just be competitive. And in view of that future, would I rather bet on Gunnar improving on what can only be considered a rookie season where he showed top 4 skills, or on Beauchemin being any better than the inconsistent guy that he is this season or at worst the liability he was last year? Would I rather part with Beauch's large salary now and spend it on a good young forward in trade or a free agent in the offseason, or would I rather dump Gunnar's cheap contract? Would I rather get more in a trade for Beauchemin (as other teams will no doubt pay more for his overhyped role in the legendary cup run of years ago) or part with Gunnar by selling low before giving him a chance to improve on a really promising start to his career?

I could care less what the prevailing opinion is around here. Fact remains that Gunnar had a better season that Beauchemin last year, as a rookie on a bad team. That means something to me. More than whether he's been kept out of the lineup or been inconsistent this year (likely as a direct result), since Wilson's decisions are more than suspect and pretty much the whole team is badly underperforming (Kessel, Bozak, Phaneuf, Kadri, etc.).

I just can't believe anyone would encourage the trading of yet another promising kid, while we sit in the bottom 5 of the standings, over a marginal vet with just a year to go on a rich deal.
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And this is where the disconnect happens.

1) $3.8M is not a "large salary" for a defenseman. Especially one that plays 25 minutes a night.
2) Gunnarsson did not have a better season than Beauchemin last year. Unless, again, you're relying entirely on +/- as your player evaluation tool.

Other than that, I can respect the viewpoint that you'd rather roll the dice on a younger player who you think has potential, though I disagree with it. I think you're way off in your evaluations of both Gunnarsson and Beauchemin as players in the present, and in the future. I just simply don't see Gunnarsson developing into a guy that can effectively chew up 25+ minutes a night like Beauchemin can, and will continue to do. Age is also not the issue that you make it out to be. We're not talking about a 20 year old vs. a 35 year old. Beauchemin is only 30 years old, which for most NHL defensemen of his callibre means he's got some of the best years of his career still ahead of him. And exactly how much cheaper Gunnarsson is going to be than Beauchemin is up in the air at this point, as he is a restricted free agent this summer.
 
zeke said:
Duncan Keith has by far the worst +/- on the CHI Dcorps at -5. Brian Campbell has by far the best +/- on the CHI Dcorps at +12.

Chris Pronger has the worst +/- on the PHI Dcorps at +6. Andrei Meszaros has the best +/- on the PHI Dcorps at +20.

Nik Lidstrom has the worst +/- on the DET Dcorps at -1. Brian Rafalski has the best +/- on the DET Dcorps at +9.

You tell me exactly what you think this number means. and why.
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Doughty is a +16 and Jack Johnson is a +1.

Chara is a +14 and Seidenberg is a 0.

Karlsson is a -3 and Gonchar is a -19.

Am I surprised at any of those three? No. As for your examples, I commend your digging around to find those disparities, but I am sure that there will always be some skewed stats every year. Maybe the fact that the Keith and Lidstrom comparison involve players who played significantly fewer games, and maybe in those games (11 games less for Rafalski and 13 less for Campbell), the teams played really badly defensively. Or maybe it's simply a case of the big names you mentioned playing poorly this year?

Whatever the case, the stat doesn't mean nothing. It gives us a pretty good idea of what's going on. The same way that Lebda's -13 on our defense corps gives us an accurate reading of how he's played.

But all of that beside the point, you said Beauch is a stud. I would expect a stud to have significantly better stats (you like stats, right?) than the other defenders on the team. He doesn't even have significantly better (actually, worse) stats than Komi, your favorite.
 
Keep this in mind then: Schenn has been an absolute beast for the Leafs defensively this year but that is not reflected in his plus-minus rating. The statistic has value provided it is not abused but by ignoring the fact that the ratings amongst the Leafs top six is so statistically close as to be statistically irrelevant (which two to three percentage points is in most things, ie. political polling in real-life) and attempting to portray that as some semblance of evidence for Beauchemin's purportedly inferior play is an erroneous, intellectually dishonest argument.
 
LeafGm said:
When you say "defensive stats", you're relying entirely on +/- as your player evaluation tool for defensemen, and nothing else, right? Just to be clear.


And this is where the disconnect happens.

1) $3.8M is not a "large salary" for a defenseman. Especially one that plays 25 minutes a night.
2) Gunnarsson did not have a better season than Beauchemin last year. Unless, again, you're relying entirely on +/- as your player evaluation tool.

Other than that, I can respect the viewpoint that you'd rather roll the dice on a younger player who you think has potential, though I disagree with it. I think you're way off in your evaluations of both Gunnarsson and Beauchemin as players in the present, and in the future. I just simply don't see Gunnarsson developing into a guy that can effectively chew up 25+ minutes a night like Beauchemin can, and will continue to do. Age is also not the issue that you make it out to be. We're not talking about a 20 year old vs. a 35 year old. Beauchemin is only 30 years old, which for most NHL defensemen of his callibre means he's got some of the best years of his career still ahead of him. And exactly how much cheaper Gunnarsson is going to be than Beauchemin is up in the air at this point, as he is a restricted free agent this summer.
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First, I agree that $3.8M is not a huge salary for a defenseman. But it is a decent chunk of cap space, to have $3.8M open up. And the latter point is what I'm trying to get across. We have strength on the back end. But we aren't competitive. So, I'd trade the older, more expensive guy, than the younger guy with still unknown potential.

Second, for his rookie season, Gunnar definitely had just about as good or a better season than Beauch last year. The only issue is that he only played half a season's worth of games.

And no, I'm not relying on +/- alone when I say that. I'm talking about offensively too, and defensively, I watched pretty much every single game last year, and saw Beauch have a pretty terrible year. He's better lately this year, but still by no means a stud.

As for predictions, I'm not even making any. I think right now Gunnar has shown great potential. I think he's about as good as Beauch has been overall since he joined us last year. Beauch is better than him in some areas, worse in others. But overall, Gunnar is easily a top 4 guy right now. And Beauch is not a top 2. So, whether Beauch is a #3 and Gunnar a #4, irrelevant. In terms of who to trade, given everything, including our timeframe for being competitive, and the type of package we'd get back in a trade, Beauch is the guy to go, for me. 30 is not old, but when he's only got one more year left on his deal (and are you saying you want to re-sign him after it expires?) and we have Gunnar, Aulie, and others who we want in the six pack, why unload anyone other than the guy making $3.8M? When/if Burke reups Gunnar, you know full well his salary isn't going to be anywhere near Beauch's right now.
 
JaysCyYoung said:
Keep this in mind then: Schenn has been an absolute beast for the Leafs defensively this year but that is not reflected in his plus-minus rating. The statistic has value provided it is not abused but by ignoring the fact that the ratings amongst the Leafs top six is so statistically close as to be statistically irrelevant (which two to three percentage points is in most things, ie. political polling in real-life) and attempting to portray that as some semblance of evidence for Beauchemin's purportedly inferior play is an erroneous, intellectually dishonest argument.
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Again, for those who want to actually try to understand, I'm not pointing to +/- as evidence of Beauch's inferior play. I'm trying to dispel the notion that Beauch has been soooo good for us, a stud, as Zeke says. I would expect his stats, including plus minus, to be better than even one guy in the corps. But it's not, and that means something.
 
But you haven't proved anything.

Rob Blake won a Norris Trophy and was a First Team All-Star on a defence corps where his plus-minus rating was the second worst on the entire unit behind a washed up aging Garry Galley.

1997-98 Los Angeles Kings Defence

Mattias Norstrom: +14
Jan Vopat: +8 (21 games)
Sean O'Donnell: +7
Phillippe Boucher: +6
Aki Berg: +3 (!)
Doug Zmolek: 0 (46 games)
Rob Blake: -3
Garry Galley: -5

Your expectations aside regarding Beauchemin's "stud" status, there are many instances where the defenceman that plays the most even-strength minutes on a team with poor goaltending or where they are matched up against the opposition's top-line and best offensive players every single night plays a major factor in reducing the quality of their plus-minus as can be seen in a seemingly infinite number of examples available to us. As a result, often the best defencemen in the league post surprisingly poor plus-minuses for this very reason: quality of opposition and minutes played.
 
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On second thought, after looking at his numbers this year, he'd still be overpaid at 2.5 million for the next two years. I don't know, maybe I'm crazy but if Burke doesn't have anything brewing on the trade front then I would take a flyer on him.
 
Two bad two of our best and most intelligent posters are gnawing over this bone. Kiss and make up guys you are too valuable to fi.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Doughty is a +16 and Jack Johnson is a +1.

Chara is a +14 and Seidenberg is a 0.

Karlsson is a -3 and Gonchar is a -19.

Am I surprised at any of those three? No. As for your examples, I commend your digging around to find those disparities, but I am sure that there will always be some skewed stats every year. Maybe the fact that the Keith and Lidstrom comparison involve players who played significantly fewer games, and maybe in those games (11 games less for Rafalski and 13 less for Campbell), the teams played really badly defensively. Or maybe it's simply a case of the big names you mentioned playing poorly this year?

Whatever the case, the stat doesn't mean nothing. It gives us a pretty good idea of what's going on. The same way that Lebda's -13 on our defense corps gives us an accurate reading of how he's played.

But all of that beside the point, you said Beauch is a stud. I would expect a stud to have significantly better stats (you like stats, right?) than the other defenders on the team. He doesn't even have significantly better (actually, worse) stats than Komi, your favorite.
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for chrissake, I gave you three norris contenders from arguably the 3 best dcorps in the league, and now you're saying I'm picking and choosing?

your reliance on this stat, and this stat alone, makes your point weaker, not stronger.

If you look at any stat which properly measures defensive ability - i.e. a quality of competition stat, a time on ice stat, or a goals against per 60 stat - you'd see that Beauchemin unsurprisingly is our best defensive defenseman.

There's plenty of good stats which demonstrate clearly what a stud dman Beauchemin is.

+/- doesn't tell us anything. the fact that it's your only argument makes your position weaker, not stronger.

I'm only trying to help you out here.
 
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