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Leaf Rumours

mbow30 said:
i don't think that deal necessarily fits into their structure (though they're spending way too mich on a shitty D), but the deal really isn't that brutal.

mediocre players like grabovski are making $5.5mn.

lecavalier is a good player. perhaps overpaid if he continues to be a 65-70 point guy, but by an increasingly diminishing amount.
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See… you just compared Vinny to Grabovski in your first post, even noting that Grabo has outscored Vinny in 2 of the past 3 years. And while I’d agree that Lecavalier’s a better player, really, Vinny is more comparable to Grabovski than Getzlaf or Malkin. Plus, it's not like Lecavalier is some great two way player.

If you think Grabo’s $5.5 million salary is bad, I’m not sure how Vinny’s $7.7 is justifiable. Not only that, Vinny is signed for, 3 or 4 more years than Grabovski and is 3 or 4 years older as well.

Even if Vinny’s salary is more palatable under an increasing cap, you’re assuming he’s not going to diminish during those years. I mean, he’s already in his mid-30s.
 
Now, while it's fun to continue to go on with this Vinny thing ... are there indeed sources, or even rumors, that TB is looking to unload Vinny by dangling their #3 overall pick?

Or is that all suggested and come up with from this board here?
 
number17 said:
Now, while it's fun to continue to go on with this Vinny thing ... are there indeed sources, or even rumors, that TB is looking to unload Vinny by dangling their #3 overall pick?

Or is that all suggested and come up with from this board here?
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Think it's a hockey buzz rumour. It's not us.
 
I think it’d be a huge mistake to trade for and keep Vinny on the cap.

Yes, the Leafs could use a big center, and yes those are the hardest types of players to find. But it’s not like the Leafs have an old roster with a really limited window, or a desperate need for such a player… quite the opposite in fact. The Leafs were a 5th seed this year, without Lupul and Gardiner for most of the year, that took the finalist Bruins to 7 games in their first crack at the playoffs.

Vinny would improve the team short-term, but he’d also likely limit the ceiling for this team as well... quite possibly as not quite good enough for a Cup. He’d pretty much cost all of the Leafs all their hard-earned cap-flexibility and pretty much cement the roster with little room to improve. And if Vinny declines, then his contract becomes an anchor that prevents the team from taking the next step up.

I think it’d be best for Nonis to exercise patience and time that he has, and something better will turn up.
 
That 3rd pick is so tempting..Who could we end up with? I really like that Drouin kid..From analysis on what type of player he is..vision, scoring touch, strong legs..Totally something we need. As for Lecavalier, sure his contract sucks and he's not a very good 2-way player(has been floating quite a bit lately) but i think change and the fact he's not that old, we can get few more good years out of him, imo.
 
MyNameIsJonas said:
to get Vinny and NOT buy him out would be silly....and I think the idea for Tampa is to keep him on a lesser del after he is amnesty'd
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There's no harm in waiting a year before potentially buying him out, assuming we can fit him under our cap.

See how he plays this year, and then make the decision about a buy out after the season. He's still a productive player.
 
Maybe they'd take Grabs back in the deal. He's certainly a much more easily absorbed buyout if it came to that.

Vinny and 3rd for Grabs and 21.
 
Aardvarkmayhem said:
See… you just compared Vinny to Grabovski in your first post, even noting that Grabo has outscored Vinny in 2 of the past 3 years. And while I’d agree that Lecavalier’s a better player, really, Vinny is more comparable to Grabovski than Getzlaf or Malkin. Plus, it's not like Lecavalier is some great two way player.

If you think Grabo’s $5.5 million salary is bad, I’m not sure how Vinny’s $7.7 is justifiable. Not only that, Vinny is signed for, 3 or 4 more years than Grabovski and is 3 or 4 years older as well.

Even if Vinny’s salary is more palatable under an increasing cap, you’re assuming he’s not going to diminish during those years. I mean, he’s already in his mid-30s.
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lecavalier is much better than grabovski. the point i was making was that even in spite of his production the past few years... he is a better player.

they really aren't comparable at all.



i thikn people need to realize that demand is high and supply is low. a better centre than lecavalier is going to cost more than 7.7mn per year. full stop. the last two centres who are better than him just signed for 8.25 and 9.5, and neither were on the open market. far as the trade market is concerned, short of the thornton pipe dream nobody better htan lecavalier appears to be on the trade market. the only ufa is ribeiro who i think most would agree is a step down, is the same age and appearse poised to demand something in the 6-7 range anyways.

this is the one shot at addressing a need that the team has no reasonable hope of filling from within for the foreseeable future, and where basically no comparable players are available via the trade or ufas routes.
 
mbow30 said:
lecavalier is much better than grabovski. the point i was making was that even in spite of his production the past few years... he is a better player.

they really aren't comparable at all.



i thikn people need to realize that demand is high and supply is low. a better centre than lecavalier is going to cost more than 7.7mn per year. full stop. the last two centres who are better than him just signed for 8.25 and 9.5, and neither were on the open market. far as the trade market is concerned, short of the thornton pipe dream nobody better htan lecavalier appears to be on the trade market. the only ufa is ribeiro who i think most would agree is a step down, is the same age and appearse poised to demand something in the 6-7 range anyways.

this is the one shot at addressing a need that the team has no reasonable hope of filling from within for the foreseeable future, and where basically no comparable players are available via the trade or ufas routes.
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Lecavalier’s better than Grabovski, I agree. But still, his point production, reliably in the 65 to 70 point range, is closer to Grabovski’s usual around 55 – 60 point production than it is to the point-per-game #1 centers. It’s not even clear that Lecavalier is a better two-way player than Grabovski. Is it really worth taking on his contract that’s $2 million dollars a season MORE than Grabovski’s (which many of us are looking to amnesty) for several seasons, especially when Vinny’s 4 years older and more injury prone to boot?

Getzlaf and Malkin are much better and younger players than Lecavalier. And really, Getzlaf is barely getting paid more than Lecavalier and his recently-signed contract expires only one year after Lecavalier’s and he’s 5 years younger. I’m not saying the Leafs shouldn’t take on an $8 million deal… just not this particular one. If Vinny deteriorates - and considering he’s 33, relies on his athleticism, is injury prone, and plays with Stamkos and St. Louis on the PP, no? – his contract could very quickly enter Gomez territory.

I’d much rather sign Ribeiro for $6 miillion for 4 years or so than take on Vinny’s contract – and I’d rather even pass on that. Or, if there were a young, point-per-game winger the Leafs could acquire for $7 million, I’d rather take that on than take on Vinny.

Center is the Leafs weakest position, but it’s not like the team is desperate for one or can’t be a very, very good team without. It’s not nearly as crippling as not having a starting goaltender was all these years. The Blackhawks are the best team in the league, and really only have Toews down the middle as an above average centerman (and there are a lot of similarities between the Leafs and Hawks in terms of style of play). I’m not saying the center position isn’t important – but it’s not everything, and there are better ways of dealing with it than taking on a deal that could severely submarine the team's Cup hopes on it's own.
 
dude's 6'4 225 i don't think he just relies on his athleticism.

i agree that htere are risks, but a first line centre is a risk woth taking.

as for him vs grabovski -- there is far more to it than offense. offensively he is better and if he rebound sarguably way better. in terms of the rest of his game... it isn't even close.

and if we're talking defense, did you watch the bruins series?

Center is the Leafs weakest position, but it’s not like the team is desperate for one or can’t be a very, very good team without. It’s not nearly as crippling as not having a starting goaltender was all these years. The Blackhawks are the best team in the league, and really only have Toews down the middle as an above average centerman (and there are a lot of similarities between the Leafs and Hawks in terms of style of play). I’m not saying the center position isn’t important – but it’s not everything, and there are better ways of dealing with it than taking on a deal that could severely submarine the team's Cup hopes on it's own.
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well... they are desperate for help up the middle. especially if they can't resign bozak. but even with bozak they needed help. in particular they needed somebody who doesn't get pushed around.

as for the hawks... toews is an elite two way centre. that's a big advantage. behind him they have the option of shifting sharp to centre, as needed, and they have hossa who basically plays as a centre without taking draws.

but evne still. they have toews - an elite ppg centre who wins close to 60% of his draws and has the size to match up against anybody.
 
mbow30 said:
dude's 6'4 225 i don't think he just relies on his athleticism.

i agree that htere are risks, but a first line centre is a risk woth taking.

as for him vs grabovski -- there is far more to it than offense. offensively he is better and if he rebound sarguably way better. in terms of the rest of his game... it isn't even close.

and if we're talking defense, did you watch the bruins series?



well... they are desperate for help up the middle. especially if they can't resign bozak. but even with bozak they needed help. in particular they needed somebody who doesn't get pushed around.

as for the hawks... toews is an elite two way centre. that's a big advantage. behind him they have the option of shifting sharp to centre, as needed, and they have hossa who basically plays as a centre without taking draws.

but evne still. they have toews - an elite ppg centre who wins close to 60% of his draws and has the size to match up against anybody.
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The risks with Lecavalier are ENORMOUS. $8 million per season for 7 more years when’s he’s 33 and injury-prone already. If his game goes south – and there’s MUCH more reason why it would go south than it would improve – his contract could quickly get into Gomez territory.

He’s better than Grabo offensively. But If he’s much better than Grabovski offensively, he hasn’t shown it these past few years. He has only finished as a plus player twice in his career… and yeah, I know, +/-. But, as far as I can tell, his Corsi #s are mediocre on his team as well. Add it all up, and Vinny doesn’t really qualify as a #1 center.

So, based on the Hawks model, it sounds like there are other ways of dealing with the Leafs deficit at center rather than take on Vinnie and the brutal risks that come with him.
 
mbow30 said:
dude's 6'4 225 i don't think he just relies on his athleticism.

i agree that htere are risks, but a first line centre is a risk woth taking.

as for him vs grabovski -- there is far more to it than offense. offensively he is better and if he rebound sarguably way better. in terms of the rest of his game... it isn't even close.

and if we're talking defense, did you watch the bruins series?



well... they are desperate for help up the middle. especially if they can't resign bozak. but even with bozak they needed help. in particular they needed somebody who doesn't get pushed around.

as for the hawks... toews is an elite two way centre. that's a big advantage. behind him they have the option of shifting sharp to centre, as needed, and they have hossa who basically plays as a centre without taking draws.

but evne still. they have toews - an elite ppg centre who wins close to 60% of his draws and has the size to match up against anybody.
Click to expand...


The risks with Lecavalier are ENORMOUS. $8 million per season for 7 more years when’s he’s 33 and injury-prone already. If his game goes south – and there’s MUCH more reason why it would go south than it would improve – his contract could quickly get into Gomez territory.

He’s better than Grabo offensively. But If he’s much better than Grabovski offensively, he hasn’t shown it these past few years. He has only finished as a plus player twice in his career… and yeah, I know, +/-. But, as far as I can tell, his Corsi #s are mediocre on his team as well. Add it all up, and Vinny doesn’t really qualify as a #1 center.

So, based on the Hawks model, it sounds like there are other ways of dealing with the Leafs deficit at center rather than take on Vinnie and the brutal risks that come with him.
 
what's the blackhawks model?

wait for a 3rd overall pick to develop into a ppg selke contender, and sign an elite two way winger to a contract that runs into his 40s?

how is hossa different than lecavalier?
 
Hossa's more productive than Lecavalier, a much better bet to hit 70 points. He's an elite two-way player, while Lecavalier isn't. On top of that, he's signed to a $5.25 million contract, not a $7.7 million dollar deal - which is a BIG difference.

Despite the Leafs not looking as good on paper at centers as on the wing, I'd take on Hossa's deal before Lecavalier's easily. But even Hossa's deal may not be so good if he declines. And that's at almost $3 million less than Lecavalier's, and that he impacts the game in more ways than Vinnie.

My Hawks model in the post above was based on what you were saying about the Hawks, and them being able to use Sharp and Hossa as centers of sorts. The Hawks are an elite offensive and defensive team despite having only one above-average center. And they've even gotten to the Finals with Toews only playing at a 40 point pace.
 
well sharp's a bit of a special case since he was a centre until last year.

as for hossa...

first, rare player. just like lecavalier.

second, because of the recapture rule those contracts are a thing of the past. you aren't getting marian hossa's for $5.25 any more.

third, the uptick last year aside their numbers over the past 4 years have been pretty comparable.
 
Lecavalier is a big, skilled center. Those are pretty hard to come by, even if he isn't a ppg player anymore. We've been looking for one ever since Mats retired.

Overpaying a guy like that is probably worth it. Its the opposite of goaltending where there are a ton of quality goaltenders for cheap. There are pretty much no big, skilled centers period.
 
The key to this deal is the 3rd overall pick, never-mind Vinny. Lecavalier even though he's got an ugly contract, can always be bought out in the event he doesn't work out (if he actually wants to play here). The point is, there is huge upside to this deal for the Leafs, from the 3rd to Vinny's potential play as a first line center. By the sounds of the rumor, Vinny would be bought out by the Leaf anyways so, he may not even have the chance to play here.

Do it, do it now. 3rd overall picks don't grow on trees.
 
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