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Leafs acquire Frederik Anderson from Ducks

With his age and contract I'd give a lot for him.
Stupid for Calgary to give up on him. He'll be huge next season.
 
For what it's worth, talked to a longtime Ducks fan here and he's said Andersen is a legitimate starter, and wasn't happy about the Ducks letting him go. He's also pretty unhappy about Carlyle being back and is having doubts about Bob MUrray's competence. Expecting a .915-.918 year from Andersen, and less catastrophic goals as Bernier would give.
 
Carlyle hiring is just mind boggling. The Ducks have gone in the exact opposite direction of coaching as every other team.
Trading Andersen makes sense for them although he's good. They're a budget team and have a really good and cheaper young goalie to go for.
 
.915-.918 is the low end of my expectations for Anderson.....and imo; Leafs brass.

They might have gone out of their way to both top Calgary's offer, and to lock Andersen up long term, because they think .915-.918 is his absolute floor.....but they didn't go after him as aggressively as they did, and lock him up now versus later, unless they have internal scouting/data that makes them feel fairly confident he's very likely to be a consistently .920+ guy.

imo.
 
JackBurton said:
Carlyle hiring is just mind boggling. The Ducks have gone in the exact opposite direction of coaching as every other team.
Trading Andersen makes sense for them although he's good. They're a budget team and have a really good and cheaper young goalie to go for.
Click to expand...

Mind boggling was also the Ducks trading for Bieksa (without dumping any salary back to the Canucks) - who's best years are well behind him. Probably THE only good thing Benning has done as GM of the Canucks.
 
Montana said:
.....but they didn't go after him as aggressively as they did, and lock him up now versus later, unless they have internal scouting/data that makes them feel fairly confident he's very likely to be a consistently .920+ guy.

imo.
Click to expand...

yeah, that's the only way it makes sense.
 
Ok guys, so I had a bit of time and I wanted to see how Andersen's consistency compares to the rest of the goalies. A lot has been said of his consistency, and I agree the SV% being one stat, but how many games does a goalie delivers 'average' or 'good' or 'great performance' is more important to me.

And for that, I've compared the following goalies:

- Andersen for 15-16 season
- Ben Bishop for 15-16
- Corey Schneider for 15-16
- Carey Price for 14-15 (his Vezina year, not his injured year)
- Jonathan Bernier for 14-15 (his better year in Leafs jersey, not his "I'm in the Matthews cap" season)

And I count the # of starts each goalie has which are a) shutouts b) great starts (.930+), c) Average + starts (.915+), d) Bad starts (.900-.915) and finally e) terrible starts (sub .900)

I then look at the % of starts that fall into each bucket. This would tell us how many quality starts each goalie has given his team, and how many games each goalie has cost his team.

The result is quite revealing ... and I have reason to believe Shanny + Lou made a GOOD trade giving up 31st overall for Andersen.

Screen Shot 2016-06-30 at 3.54.40 PM.jpg
 
Was curious about this very subject myself.


I know in the NBA for instance the Spurs spend resources on breaking down various opponents variance. (Ie is a player a consistent 20 point scorer, or is he a streaky guy who goes for 40 one night and zero the next).....and then they weigh it accordingly whenever looking at potential Free Agents, or how they guard a certain guy on any given night.

Was curious if some similar level of variance analysis might be something the Leafs applied to weighing goalie value.
 
Long story short, Andersen didn't have Price's crazy # of shutouts in that Vezina season, but he gave his team as many 'good starts' as Price did, and his #'s compare very favorably with Corey Schneider, and was much better than something like the 'good season' Bernier (or Reimer, for that matter) was able to give the Leafs.

I'll expand the list to include Andersen's 3 NHL seasons to see if the # is consistent later, but it looks like Shanny & Dubas did their homework before pulling the trigger on Andersen.
 
number17 said:
Ok guys, so I had a bit of time and I wanted to see how Andersen's consistency compares to the rest of the goalies. A lot has been said of his consistency, and I agree the SV% being one stat, but how many games does a goalie delivers 'average' or 'good' or 'great performance' is more important to me.

And for that, I've compared the following goalies:

- Andersen for 15-16 season
- Ben Bishop for 15-16
- Corey Schneider for 15-16
- Carey Price for 14-15 (his Vezina year, not his injured year)
- Jonathan Bernier for 14-15 (his better year in Leafs jersey, not his "I'm in the Matthews cap" season)

And I count the # of starts each goalie has which are a) shutouts b) great starts (.930+), c) Average + starts (.915+), d) Bad starts (.900-.915) and finally e) terrible starts (sub .900)

I then look at the % of starts that fall into each bucket. This would tell us how many quality starts each goalie has given his team, and how many games each goalie has cost his team.

The result is quite revealing ... and I have reason to believe Shanny + Lou made a GOOD trade giving up 31st overall for Andersen.

View attachment 4165
Click to expand...
Awesome thank you.

Now being named an original six's number one starter with a heavy contract behind you is something else. We'll see if these numbers stay in the same range.
 
number17 said:
Long story short, Andersen didn't have Price's crazy # of shutouts in that Vezina season, but he gave his team as many 'good starts' as Price did, and his #'s compare very favorably with Corey Schneider, and was much better than something like the 'good season' Bernier (or Reimer, for that matter) was able to give the Leafs.

I'll expand the list to include Andersen's 3 NHL seasons to see if the # is consistent later, but it looks like Shanny & Dubas did their homework before pulling the trigger on Andersen.
Click to expand...

Would certainly be interesting to see the general variance of that stat for goalies year to year, to know how it tracks with save pct. Also, how much will it vary for goalies in the same overall range. ie. will every goalie in the .920ish range have similar numbers, or are there some goalies who are much more boost and bust than others.
 
Some of the comments on the opening pages are great.

Skepticism was full deserved at the time of the deal though

Sent from my SM-G920W8 using Tapatalk
 
Artnes said:
Some of the comments on the opening pages are great.

Skepticism was full deserved at the time of the deal though
Click to expand...
For a lot of people (myself included), trust of the current management group was the only thing stopping a meltdown.

It just seemed like such a repeat of the recent past. Trading high draft picks for a California team's backup, and immediately backing up the Brinks truck.

But once again, Lou proved that he knows goalies.
 
I read back too and in Lou we trust!

Note also that Lou was able to unload Bernier as well without retention -- something many were doubtful could be done.
 
Also, someone mentioned beer around page 15 and it didn't get back to goaltending until page 20 or so.
 
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