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Leafs' Prospect/Marlies Discussion Thread!

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hockeylover said:
Click to expand...


Well, here's a post I never expected to make but am happy too...

Here are his 22 yr old comparables

Zuccarello (MIN): 1.14
Bergenheim (NYI): .92
Olofsson (Buf): .86
Holmberg (SHL): .84
David Vyborny: .82
Daniel Alfredsson: .82
Linus Karlsson (SHL-CHI 3rd rounder): .80
Mattias Janmark-Nylen: .66

Young players scoring in the SHL is actually kind of rare (Willy was a generational level prospect in their system). Holmberg is one of only two 22 & under players in the SHL in the top 30 for point scoring (Holmberg is 11th, and Linus Karlsson is 19th). There haven't been many 22 and under players to score at .80 (1980 birthday or more recent) or better and not go on to be some sort of a functional NHL or better.

Here's the list (not including names above):

21
Huselius (5x 20+ goal scorer, 1x 30 goal scorer in the NHL)
Silfverberg (4x 20+ goal scorer)
Soderberg (1x 20+ goal scorer and analytics darling)
Rickard Wallin (lol, yeah, same one)
Andreas Johnsson (yeah, same one. 1x 20+ goal scorer)
Tom Wandell (229 NHL games0

20
Henrik Zetterberg (lol)
Jonatan Berggren (Detroit 2nd rounder, never came over)
David Rundblad (hyped prospect who didn't pan out)
Oskar Lindblom (good player, career derailed by cancer. 17 goal scorer as a rookie)
Oskar Steen (skill midget who didn't come over until much later in his career and didn't really crack in any real way)
Viktor Arvidsson (2x NHL 30+ goal scorer)

19 (go back to 1970 for this one...because)
Elias Pettersson
Peter Forsberg
Markus Naslund
H Sedin
D Sedin
Nick Backstrom
Marcus Kruger (one of these things....)

18 (1970 again)
Markus Naslund
William Nylander
D Sedin


So obvious the quality decreases with age as the the best players are generally coming over at 19-20-21, but there aren't a whole lot of true misses in that category either and most of the names turned out to be pretty solid NHL'ers. Middle 6 types or better.
 
Fwiw, SHL to NHL scoring adjustments are higher than AHL adjustments so Holmberg's current SHL production adjusts like this:

82 game pace

SHL: 69 points
NHL: 40 points
AHL: 85 points

So the best way for us to look at this type of production through a more familiar Leaf lens is to compare that 22 yr old AHL/NHL production to other 22 yr olds we've had over the last few generations of Leaf players

NHL
Matthews: 94 points
Mitch: 93 points
Kadri: 75 points
Kessel: 64 points
Kapanen: 46 points
Wellwood: 46 points
Willy: 41 points (post contract disaster season)
Holmberg: 40 (adjusted)
Kulemin: 35 points
Steen: 35 points (sophomore slump)
Stajan: 27 points
Holland: 21 points


AHL (notables and future NHL'ers)
Holmberg: 85 points (adjusted)
Leipsic: 85 points
Johnsson: 82 points
Leivo: 77 points
Bracco: 63 points
Gardiner: 59 points
Earl: 58 points
Brooks: 55 points
Johnny Malkin: 53 points
Joe Colbourne: 53 points
Marchment: 49 points
McKegg: 49 points
Moore: 40 points
Engvall: 38 points
 
Whenever I've watched Holmberg in the past I always got Rickard Wallin/Par Lindholm vibes. Bland Swede who isn't particularly great at any single thing but tends to produce in Sweden. But the dude has taken his game to another level since I've last seen him. Very intriguing growth. And all they really need is cheap middle six depth out of dudes like him so you definitely toss him into the bucket of potential guys that can fill that role.
 
When it comes to drafting the nerd has a great eye.

I remember Tom Hunter @puckdontlie whining that he took Sandin over Veleno at the time as well. Same guy was also advocating Crouse was closer to Marner then most people believed and it wouldn't be a stretch for the Leafs to take him at 4

Bell end
 
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