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Leafs' Prospect/Marlies Discussion Thread!

MindzEye said:
The only problem is perception. We might know that we've got about a dozen excellent depth prospects after our best 4, but do other front offices around the league feel the same way? Do they give a flying fuck that Pontus Holmberg is putting up excellent age adjusted production in SHL and tracks to be a good middle 6 forward (or better) based on trajectory and comparables? Probably not. Most of the league doesn't appear to think that way. Knies though with the size and obvious skill is the one guy I could see getting over rated by the eye testers around the league. They won't stop to think why he's not torching the NCAA with those tools, they're too busy with their pants around their ankles tossing one off to his highlight videos.
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Yup. If they ever wanted to swing their dicks and shoot for the sky in a trade, he's the guy teams will ask about. And he is maybe one of the few whose value will be higher than his actual worth. If wouldn't surprise me if he had more value than a Robertson, which is just wrong.

Sending him to an American market may even up his value... Especially his home, Arizona. Have to remember that this is exactly why LA wanted hometown boy Trevor Moore in the Campbell trade.


Yes I'm still thinking about Chychrun without knowing whether he's good or not.
 
Preston said:
Yup. If they ever wanted to swing their dicks and shoot for the sky in a trade, he's the guy teams will ask about. And he is maybe one of the few whose value will be higher than his actual worth. If wouldn't surprise me if he had more value than a Robertson, which is just wrong.

Sending him to an American market may even up his value... Especially his home, Arizona. Have to remember that this is exactly why LA wanted hometown boy Trevor Moore in the Campbell trade.


Yes I'm still thinking about Chychrun without knowing whether he's good or not.
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Yeah, that's the obvious question. Because if Chychrun is good, the cost is probably Knies + 1st + a player (Dermott)

An instructive bit for us is the Muzzin trade. Grundstrom was the eye testy favourite that all of us knew was going to get over rated because he played angry, but Durzi was the weirdo analytics pick that some of us were concerned was going to be real gud, but that fuck it because Muzzin. Fast forward a few years and Durzi is out scoring Grundstrom on the same team, looking like an analytics darling puck mover in the making.

It's too early to say the exact same about Knies and he's obviously more physically impressive looking than Grundstrom ever was. But we need to watch out for the same thing we ended up seeing with Grundstrom, good but not high end offensive production across multiple leagues.
 
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MindzEye said:
Yeah, that's the obvious question. Because if Chychrun is good, the cost is probably Knies + 1st + a player (Dermott)

An instructive bit for us is the Muzzin trade. Grundstrom was the eye testy favourite that all of us knew was going to get over rated because he played angry, but Durzi was the weirdo analytics pick that some of us were concerned was going to be real gud, but that fuck it because Muzzin. Fast forward a few years and Durzi is out scoring Grundstrom on the same team, looking like an analytics darling puck mover in the making.
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Difference is that Muzz had only 1 year left on his deal. Chychrun has 3 years left. But that's a good blueprint for a deal, even if you have to add a bit more due to his age and cost control. I've always felt that Ras had to be part of it. Throw in Knies and you may have enough there.

But only if this guy is a legit top pair stud. Because having him cheap for 3-4 years is a gamechanger.
 
MindzEye said:
The only problem is perception. We might know that we've got about a dozen excellent depth prospects after our best 4, but do other front offices around the league feel the same way? Do they give a flying fuck that Pontus Holmberg is putting up excellent age adjusted production in SHL and tracks to be a good middle 6 forward (or better) based on trajectory and comparables? Probably not. Most of the league doesn't appear to think that way. Knies though with the size and obvious skill is the one guy I could see getting over rated by the eye testers around the league. They won't stop to think why he's not torching the NCAA with those tools, they're too busy with their pants around their ankles tossing one off to his highlight videos.
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Yeah - because they're all so similar you can kind of let the other team pick knowing that they might overvalue the wrong things.
 
zeke said:
Yeah - because they're all so similar you can kind of let the other team pick knowing that they might overvalue the wrong things.
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The question for me is whether they value any of them at all. Other than Knies, we don't have (m)any of the type of prospects teams put significant value on. That's why I brought up the Muzzin trade. Grundstrom was the target, Durzi the throw in. We have a lot of Durzi's right now that teams will take as a thrown in, but no one in our "depth" list that is a Grundstrom imo.
 
So what you're saying is they need to draft some truculent gudpros once in awhile as well to use as trade bait?
 
Preston said:
So what you're saying is they need to draft some truculent gudpros once in awhile as well to use as trade bait?
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That's the problem with abusing market inefficiencies....when you turn around later to try to make a trade with the market, those fuckers are inefficient and just want the type of players they wanted at the draft, but the ones they "missed" on. They're not mad they missed out on picking the 5'9 Hirvonen. They're looking for the 6'3 LHD that went 5-10 picks after him.
 
Grundstrom was also like out top prospect at the time.

we may not have depth guys that would have significant value, but I’m not sure the difference between guys like Abruzzese and Tvernerg and Amirov/Knies are that huge which gives more flexibility to move the top guys.

and I think Amriov/Knies will have lots of value because of their size and skating.
 
Ya Amirov also has the allure of being a top 15 pick. He deffo has value and if they aren't that big on him, now is the time to trade him. Because that shiny first round status won't last forever.
 
The Leafs don't have an A grade young asset to give for Chychrun. they'd have to rely on a quantity based offer.

It's possible the Arizona GM is an idiot again, but leaving that possibility aside, other teams very likely have higher value prospect capital to put on the table. the 3 year term to me makes it likelier AZ will land that value.

I actually think a deal with the Yotes to clear some cap room is likelier...ie we give them Ritchie and futures for something, to get Mimsy off the cap for next year.
 
MindzEye said:
The question for me is whether they value any of them at all. Other than Knies, we don't have (m)any of the type of prospects teams put significant value on. That's why I brought up the Muzzin trade. Grundstrom was the target, Durzi the throw in. We have a lot of Durzi's right now that teams will take as a thrown in, but no one in our "depth" list that is a Grundstrom imo.
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Wait a sec - all of Robertson amirov knies niemela hirvonen (even kokkonen amirov akhtyamov) are all high to highish round picks that have been prominent top end members of their (quality hockey) countries youth programs and have very tangible stats in good leagues to boot.
 
You think he plays next year?

there is little chance he plays this year. I assume the plan is to go back to college next year. Maybe year 3 he can be an impact player as a rookie but even that seems kind of optimistic honestly.

it would be the fastest development of any of our recent picks.

if you can get a player that will definitely be an impact player at least the next 3 years gotta consider it IMO.
 
leafman101 said:
You think he plays next year?

there is little chance he plays this year. I assume the plan is to go back to college next year. Maybe year 3 he can be an impact player as a rookie but even that seems kind of optimistic honestly.

it would be the fastest development of any of our recent picks.

if you can get a player that will definitely be an impact player at least the next 3 years gotta consider it IMO.
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Well, no, that's in 8 months... He's pretty physically mature though so I'm not sure it'd be all that crazy to see him make the jump in his junior year.

As for the last part, sure, not totally opposed to dealing one of those top 4 prospects if a deal makes sense.
 
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That really sucks. Odd that nothing was reported when the coach was benching the shit out of him, because that would've been a much better reason for him not playing much. Hope he's okay.
 
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